When the Oregon Ducks took down the Ohio State Buckeyes, 32-31, back on Oct. 12, it felt like fate could force the two college football powerhouses into a rematch for the 2024 Big Ten Championship.
As it turned out, Michigan had other plans for Ohio State in the final week of the regular season.
Now, the Penn State Nittany Lions are ready to take the Buckeyes’ spot on Saturday, December 7, at Lucas Oil Stadium.
2024 Big Ten Championship
No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 3 Penn State (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024
Time: 5:00 p.m. PT
TV Network: CBS
Opening Spread: Oregon -3, Penn State +3
Current Spread: Oregon -3.5, Penn State +3.5
Moneyline: Oregon -175, Penn State +150
Over/Under: 50.5
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, Indiana
Capacity: 70,000
Gametime Weather: 33°
What’s On The Line?
A win for Oregon would mean more than a Big Ten Championship, locking in a No. 1 seed ahead of the new-look College Football Playoffs. A loss probably doesn’t move the Ducks out of the Top 4, considering their entire 2024 body of work. But a win locks in the top spot.
If Penn State wins, the topic of No. 1 becomes trickier. In all likelihood, that designation goes to the country’s current No. 2 team, the Texas Longhorns. But there’s a reality where the Ducks slip, the Nittany Lions dominate, perhaps Texas falls to No. 5 Georgia in the SEC Championship…and Penn State snags that No. 1 seed after all.
Of course, the bigger picture for Penn State is that if it wins, it locks in a Top 4 seed and a bye in the first round of the 2024 CFP. Should it lose, a bye is not a guarantee, and the team could slip out of the Top 4 and have to play an extra qualifier.
X-Factors
Oregon needs to pound the ground game on Saturday. It’s something Dan Lanning’s group has done all season as the No. 5 rushing team in the conference (56th in the country), but they’re going up against a Nittany Lions squad that holds the No. 2 rank in the Big Ten (25th).
Defensively, Oregon ranks seventh in the Big Ten against the run, and Penn State ranks fifth.
Additionally, both teams need to be ready for the opposite of a pound-and-ground game at any moment—AKA trick plays.
We know Dan Lanning is willing to push the envelope as far as fourth downs go, but he also knows how (and when) to be a trickster in true Oregon fashion. Here’s the thing, though. If you don’t know anything about Penn State, know they love to “smoke and mirrors” you. They are a team with consistent, reliable weapons, but they also have a dangerous side.
Nobody knows about playing with danger more than Dan Lanning, but both he and Penn State head coach James Franklin need to be ready to strike—and they must be ready for the other to strike at any moment.
Final Prediction
Oddsmakers may like Oregon on the moneyline (-175) and against the spread (-3.5), but there is doubt among projection models.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor favors Penn State 53.7 percent of the time compared to Oregon at 46.3 percent.
Sports Illustrated’s Football Power Index gave the Nittany Lions the exact same number of wins (53.7 percent) across 20,000 simulations.
And wouldn’t you know it, Oregon Sports News’ own Bobby Albrant and his Savvy Game Line model have underdog Penn State coming out on top, too.
Of course, you can wrap your mind around this when you realize, as Albrant states, that the Nittany Lions have simply been more consistent. On offense—and in the ways they’ve won all year—this group hasn’t had much mystery (in a good way). The Ducks, however, especially early in the season, were the opposite of consistency.
How much will that mean on Saturday? Frankly, Oregon’s early-season struggles mean nothing entering the Big Ten title game, but inconsistency against Penn State would also mean everything for the Ducks’ chances.
Fortunately for Dan Lanning and his crew, they look ready to take those past inconsistencies and turn them into lessons on the biggest stage they’ve seen all year.
I could see a reality where this game comes down to a last-second field goal, but the more I consider Oregon’s propensity to go for 2, the more I see this game coming down to a shot at the endzone instead of a shot at the uprights.
Final Prediction: Oregon wins by 3 or 4 points…but probably 4, and earns the W both straight up and ATS.
Final Prediction: Oregon 31 – Penn State 27
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