Remember the good ol’ days when the Oregon-Oregon State rivalry game had leaves on the ground, turkey dinner in the oven, and a true rivalry that put the outcome in doubt?
Now we’re rivalry-ing in the Summer, and experts have already declared Oregon as a prohibitive favorite against the Beavers. So, why even watch?
I have some ideas on why fans should stay plugged in.
But first, I want to tell a story to my brethren and sisteren who love forecasting football games and encourage you to keep going.
This weekend, a young member of our family expressed interest in my savvygameline.com system. He became intrigued enough to begin one of his own. He had so many questions, and I was glad to help him and support what he was doing.
I told him, “Isaiah, if you work hard and you follow my suggestions, I guarantee that it won’t be long before you reach my level of almost total obscurity.”
He gave me an odd look.
I added, “Listen! You’re young! The sky is the limit!”
He shrugged. Then he asked, “If the sky is the limit, then why are there footprints on the moon?”
* sigh *
This season hasn’t gone the way Oregon State expected. Instead of a punishing ground game intended to open opportunities for spectacular quarterback Malik Murphy, the Beavers have atrophied mightily in rushing effectiveness. They’ve also dropped their reliance on their run game from 57% last year to just 39% this year, making me wonder if they’ve given up.
Of course, some of that drop in rush/pass ratio has been caused by OSU falling behind early in games and having to pass. Another major part is that the Beaver offensive line has only produced 2.6 yards per carry compared to 4.7 last year. It’s not bad at pass blocking, but it ranks 131st for rush blocking.
I point out those deficiencies not to deride OSU’s offensive line but rather to express how much quarterback Murphy has had to overcome in getting to the top 15 nationally in five different passing categories.
Murphy is “worth the watch” if for no other reason than he has shown single-handed heroics against immense odds. Everyone knows that opponents load up against him, yet he has succeeded anyway. If the Beavers can give him a little time, he has what it takes to hit the long ball. Oregon’s defense ranks only 70th for bringing pressure, so opportunities may be more frequent than experts think.
Murphy’s best help has come from talented receiver Trent Walker, who is ranked in the top 15 of two national receiving categories and has proven adept at catching passes at all distances.
A strong-armed quarterback who is cool under pressure, coupled with a tricky receiver with sticky hands, should be enough for Beaver fans to show up and have at least some hope.
There are some outstanding defensive backs on the OSU defense that are worth watching. Jalil Tucker, Harlem Howard, and Skyler Thomas have the secondary in the top half of FBS for interceptions. That is an impressive feat when you factor in the Beaver front end being ranked 105th for bringing pressure.
The forecast for Saturday is partly cloudy, and that’s what I think could be the case for the Beavers if they have their schemes in order and can take advantage of Oregon’s rush defense, which is performing below last year’s. It ranks 55th for defending running backs and 56th for stopping rushing touchdowns.
OSU should test the UO rush defense because there may be some unexpected opportunities. However, it is troubling that Anthony Hankerson is the only Beaver running back with more than eight carries after three games.
As for Oregon, the Duck offense will spend 60% of its time rushing the football and turn quarterback Dante Moore loose for some passing fun on occasion. Defensively, the Ducks have three terrific pass defenders led by inside linebacker Jerry Mixon, who is 8th in the nation for picks.
It’s not a surprise that bookmakers see Oregon as more than a 34-point favorite. My Savvygameline.com prediction system says it will be Oregon, 52-10.
Up north, Washington is Savvy-projected to win its rivalry game against Washington State by a margin of 43-13.
For the season, my system is 204-43 (83%) in picking winners. That is a little more than one percent better than betting lines. Savvy is 17 games better than the bookmakers in setting point spreads.
To see all 62 predictions for this week, please visit savvygameline.com. It’s all for fun and all for free. No registrations, no emails, no money. No kidding.
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