Oregon comes in as a 3.5 underdog against Penn State. Although Beaver Stadium may be the toughest place to play in the country, siding with the Ducks here is the right play. This game is a rematch of the 2024 Big Ten Championship game, where the Ducks beat the Nittany Lions 45-37 to earn their first-ever Big Ten title in their inaugural Big Ten season.
The real edge in this game for the Ducks comes on the offensive side of the ball. As a team offensively, the Ducks rank in the top fifteen in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, points, and 3rd down %. Penn State ranks outside the top 40 in all of those categories except points per game. Advanced metrics also favor the Ducks: Oregon leads the nation in adjusted EPA per play, while Penn State ranks seventh. Oregon’s net yards per play sit at +3.56 compared to the Lions’ +1.90. The Ducks are balanced offensively, and running back Noah Whittington is expected to return after missing two games.
At quarterback, Dante Moore has undoubtedly been better than Penn State’s Drew Allar. Both are projected first-round picks in next year’s draft, but Moore has a higher completion percentage, is averaging more yards per game, and has thrown seven more touchdown passes. Moore’s Heisman odds have been climbing, and Saturday presents a chance for a statement performance.
Penn State’s backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is among the nation’s best, but Allar’s recent struggles—just a 56.4% completion rate over his last two games—allow Oregon to load the box. If Allar’s inconsistencies continue, the running game may be limited.
History also isn’t on Penn State’s side in big games. Allar is 5-7 in his career against ranked opponents, with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3-to-4 in those games. We all remember his most costly mistake in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal, when his interception set up Notre Dame’s game-winning field goal. Head coach James Franklin is also just 4-20 against top-10 opponents and 3-11 when his own team is ranked in the top 10 in those matchups.
Defensively, both teams have been impressive. Penn State ranks in the top 10 in passing yards allowed, total defense, and scoring defense after luring Jim Knowles away from Ohio State with a $3 million contract. Oregon has also been stellar, ranking in the top 15 across those same categories. On third down, however, the Ducks hold the edge. They rank in the top 25 compared to Penn State’s No. 56 mark. In tight games, third-down stops are critical. It is fair to say the Ducks may have the edge defensively as well.
Oregon is well-positioned to win outright, and even if the Ducks fall short, it’s hard to see it being by more than a field goal. Take the 3.5 points and trust Oregon to cover on Saturday night.
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