The West Coast Conference Tournament semifinals tip off Monday night at Orleans Arena with NCAA Tournament implications on the line.
Top-seeded Gonzaga will face No. 4 Oregon State in the first semifinal, while No. 2 Saint Mary’s takes on No. 3 Santa Clara in a rivalry matchup that could determine whether the Broncos reach the NCAA Tournament.
Oregon State vs. Gonzaga
Gonzaga enters the tournament as the No. 1 seed and received a double bye into the semifinals. Oregon State advanced after defeating San Francisco 78-77 in the quarterfinals.
The Bulldogs dominated the lone regular-season meeting between the teams, winning 81-61 in Corvallis behind 35 points from senior center Graham Ike.
While Gonzaga has long been known for its elite offense, this year’s team has quietly become one of the best defensive groups in the country. According to KenPom, the Bulldogs rank higher nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency than offensive efficiency — a rarity for a program that traditionally builds its identity around scoring.
Still, the offense remains elite. Gonzaga averages 86 points per game and leads the nation in points in the paint, powered by Ike’s interior scoring and one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country.
Oregon State has played inspired basketball late in the season, rallying around head coach Wayne Tinkle in his final year and advancing to the semifinals with back-to-back comeback wins. But the Beavers struggled to contain Ike in the first matchup, and Gonzaga’s depth and interior dominance present major challenges.
Prediction: Gonzaga 82, Oregon State 66
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s
The second semifinal is the more intriguing matchup.
Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara split the regular-season series, with each team winning at home. Santa Clara snapped an eight-game losing streak against the Gaels in January, but Saint Mary’s responded with an 86-67 win in Moraga in February.
Saint Mary’s enters the tournament on an eight-game winning streak that secured another WCC regular-season title. As usual under coach Randy Bennett, the Gaels rely on defense, ranking among the nation’s best in scoring defense while slowing games to a deliberate pace.
Santa Clara counters with one of the conference’s most explosive offenses, averaging more than 83 points per game and relying heavily on perimeter shooting.
Freshman forward Allen Graves has been one of the biggest surprises in the league. The 6-foot-9 big man won WCC Freshman of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year after averaging double-figure scoring and making a major impact with his rebounding, passing, and defensive instincts. Despite coming off the bench most of the season, Graves has emerged as one of the most productive players in the conference on a per-minute basis.
Ultimately, Saint Mary’s defense and experience in tournament settings will make the difference.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s 71, Santa Clara 67
Projected championship: Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s
If the semifinals play out as expected, the WCC championship would once again feature the conference’s defining rivalry.
Saint Mary’s claimed the regular-season title and recently defeated Gonzaga in Moraga, but the Bulldogs remain the more balanced team. With Ike anchoring the interior, a surprisingly elite defense, and one of the most efficient offenses in the country, Gonzaga appears well-positioned to reclaim the WCC Tournament title.
Prediction: Gonzaga 77, Saint Mary’s 70
