You will probably hear some people calling this week’s game a rematch of Super Bowl XLVIII.
It’s not. Not a single player or coach from either team will be on the sideline tonight. The current Broncos and the current Seahawks have never shared the field.
Whatever this is, it’s going to be something brand new. At its most basic, this game is a chance for Seattle to rebound from a disappointing loss to San Francisco four days ago.
This will be Seattle’s second prime-time game, as they opened the season by hosting New England in the NFL Kickoff game. This is Denver’s third primetime game, after they played Kansas City on MNF in week one and hosted the Rams on SNF in week three. Seattle hosting the 49ers last week somehow wasn’t in a primetime slot, which seemed odd. Who knows, maybe Seattle would have found a way to clean up some of the mental errors that ultimately cost them the game and a critical division tiebreaker if they had been playing in front of a national audience.
Denver has used a variety of coaching approaches and offensive players, and none of them appear to be a long-term answer. They have even changed play callers, and that didn’t help much. The Broncos are scoring just 19.4 points per game, 7th worst in the league. By comparison, Seattle is 8th in the league, averaging 26.8 points per game.
On defense, Seattle is holding opponents to 21 points per game. Meanwhile, Denver allows 22.4 points per game, tying them for 10th in the league. The most important matchup to watch will be Seattle’s passing attack. QB Sam Darnold still makes head-scratching errors weekly, but his ability to run the offense and find open guys under heavy pressure cannot be overstated. Seattle averages 222 passing yards per game, which is near the middle of the pack, while Denver allows just 202 per game. Denver gives up the fourth-most yards on the ground, so teams are likely choosing to run against them rather than trusting their secondary to be anywhere close to the top-five unit it was last year. Patrick Surtain II is without question a top cover corner, but beyond him, big plays are still to be found deep, and the pass rush just isn’t getting home like it was last year.
Seattle averages just over 100 yards per game on the ground, so they may not be able to exploit Denver’s weakness against the run. If Zach Charbonnet is finally active this week, the rushing attack could get a noticeable boost. Still, if it’s more of the three-man rent-a-player committee it’s been, Denver may be able to sit in a nickel package and wait for Seattle to test them through the air. Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t met a defender who can stay with him over a drive, let alone a game, so challenge accepted if Denver wants to go that route. The Broncos are one of the league’s worst running teams, averaging just 86 yards per game, while Seattle gives up 100 yards per game on the ground so that Denver may find some success there. The Seahawks are bullies in the passing game, however, tolerating just 150 yards through the air per game. The Broncos may not run the ball well, but they also don’t throw it with much success, averaging just 182 yards per game.
The Broncos put up just 269 yards of offense per week and score under 20 points per game. It should be a blowout for Seattle, right? Well, let’s hope so. Denver has found a way to hang around in games they have no business winning, and the teams share identical 3-2 records going into tonight’s showdown.
For a team that plays half their games in high altitude, you would think Denver could muster at least 300 yards every week, but they leave a ton of plays on the field. Seattle has had its share of plays that don’t live up to expectations, but it also has a ton of explosive plays, something Denver lacks. Seattle has 20 plays of 20+ yards; Denver has 12. Two of Seattle’s explosive plays were on the ground; Denver has no rushing play for at least 20 yards. Denver’s longest run so far is 17 yards; Seattle’s longest run is 28. Seattle’s longest pass play went for 82 yards; Denver’s longest was for 49.
No matter how you slice it, Denver doesn’t do much on offense and gives up too many plays on defense. Seattle on the other hand, has a pretty balanced approach on both sides. Denver should lose this game by double digits, and after practically gift-wrapping a game for the 49ers last week, Seattle should be out for blood tonight.
If either team wants extra possessions, it won’t come cheap. Neither team gives the ball away at a frightening rate, but neither takes it away at a terrifying rate either. Denver has a +1 turnover differential, with 7 takeaways versus just six turnovers. Seattle is +2, with 11 takeaways and 9 turnovers.
On paper, this game has all the makings of a Seattle blowout. They are coming off a tough loss to a division rival and outclass Denver in overall talent, play calling, and basic execution. Meanwhile, Denver had to rally to beat a team that is somehow even worse than they are (the Chargers), who are now 0-5. Denver doesn’t seem to have whatever made them a top AFC team a season ago.
I wouldn’t expect Seattle HC and defensive playcaller Mike Macdonald to give Denver an inch in this game, where he can avoid it, and they’ll likely send exotic blitz after exotic blitz at Denver QB Bo Nix, who has been very disappointing so far this season. Denver has one of the league’s best offensive lines and a very talented receiving corps, but they don’t move the ball well, especially in a part of the country where every pass is a little easier.
Seattle has had its share of offensive struggles and hasn’t found magic in the running game yet. Still, its aerial attack has been impressive, and its aggressive defense and strong special-teams returners often give it an advantage in field position. If the Seahawks can jump out to a big lead and force Denver to make big plays, it could mean even more possessions, and the Broncos cannot afford to be in catch-up mode. I think Seattle wins a lopsided game that might be closer than necessary in the first half, then blows it wide open in the second half.
Seahawks win 42-17.
Be the first to comment