The Good, The [Not So] Bad, And The [Potentially] Ugly – The Portland Trail Blazers Offseason In Review

The Good

(“Great, great, great, gr… great!” … as Eddie Murphy gleefully sang as the Nutty Professor)

If I had a crush in the recently completed NBA draft, it would be Donovan Clingan. But I didn’t think there was any way he was falling into Portland’s lap at #7. And yet, that is exactly what happened! Whatever misgivings I or anyone else had about him are mitigated by the tremendous value he represents at 7.

In the Nutty Professor movie hyperlink above, I’m the Professor, and Donovan is Miss Purty. Meaning, I really couldn’t be happier with the Trail Blazers landing Clingan. I can confidently say, given the value proposition, he will be one the most impactful players to be drafted in 2024, health permitting. And Kevin Pelton of ESPN seems to agree. Donovan Clingan is who he chooses as Which rookie will have an immediate impact on their NBA team?

He is a winner [3 championships to his name already (2 in college; 1 in high school, the culmination of 43 straight wins)] and his play, especially on the defensive end, will have a positive impact on the Blazers’ bottom line. He also showed tremendous growth from his freshman to his sophomore year. Still just 20 years old and known to be a tireless worker (you’re not playing at UConn under Dan Hurley if you’re not), I fully expect him to continue to get better year after year.

At the Portland Trail Blazers End-of-Season presser, Chauncey Billups reiterated yet again that he wants to win. Fast forward to now, and it’s clear Billups knows he’s inheriting a winner after “gleefully introduc[ing]Clingan” to the media. The recounting comes courtesy of Aaron Fentress of the Oregonian/Oregonlive.com. There obviously is a whole lot of glee going around, and rightfully so.

The [Not So] Bad

The morning of the draft, Portland traded for yet another young player on an upward trajectory, Deni Avdija, formerly of the Washington Wizards. Deni is a four-year vet but is still only 23 years old. He broke out a bit last season, but it wasn’t all that surprising given his steady improvement year over year:

Four years in, Avdija can easily be slotted into my Sam Vecenie Inspired Career-Spanning Player Tier of 4 – Starter. If he can continue to shoot the ball as well as he did last year, which was an outlier from a percentage standpoint, he could become a Tier 3 Player (High-Leverage Starter) for the Trail Blazers.

The other thing I like about Deni is that he is a great value proposition for the Blazers. He is under contract for four more seasons, making $15,625,000 next season, $14,375,000 in 2025-26, $13,125,000 in 2026-27, and $11,875,000 in 2027-28. Even if he remains a Tier 3 player, the Portland Trail Blazers will be paying a starter less than the NBA average salary well in advance of his contract expiring. With each successive year of Avdija’s contract, he’ll become an even greater bargain with the NBA’s massive TV rights deal kicking in after next season, putting significant upward pressure on the average NBA salary.

So, with so much to like about the Deni Avdija trade, why am I categorizing it as [Not So] Bad? Well, I’m really glad you asked!

The cost associated with any player acquisition is an important consideration. In this case, virtually everyone agreed (which is highly unusual, I might add) that the price was steep—Malcolm Brogdon, a 2029 1st-round pick, two future 2nds, and the 14th overall pick, Carlton “Bub” Carrington.

“Bub,” by the way, was chosen as Kevin Pelton’s biggest surprise at summer league. You can also count Sam Vecenie among Carrington’s early fans, who gave him an overall pre-draft ranking of 8. I’m not saying we should care about “Bub” just yet, but if he pops, the price for Deni will still grow steeper.

The same is true for the 2029 first-round pick, but by the time the 2029 draft comes around, will anyone care who the Wizards drafted with Portland’s pick? Probably only if that player pops.

To me, the Avdija trade resulted from Washington driving a hard bargain and Joe Cronin (JC) having a preset objective(s), the most obvious of which is getting his team under the luxury tax threshold. While not quite as egregious, this felt a bit to me like the trades JC made in the lead-up to his very first trade deadline (2022), when he seemingly was willing to pay any price to accomplish his objectives. Here’s a recap.

Thankfully, since that fateful deadline, Cronin has redeemed himself and thereby Earned Our Faith and Trust, but enough with the overpays already JC!

The [Potentially] Ugly – Opportunity Cost

An example of opportunity cost would be “Bub” Carrington doing The Carlton on the NBA by becoming an All-Star. The Trail Blazers also passed on the opportunity to make either of their other two selections in the draft (34 & 40).

So, however unlikely, if “Bub,” Tyler Kolek (34th), or Osasere Ighodaro (40th) become All-Stars, the Blazers will have passed on an All-Star for a Deni Avdija, who I don’t think will reach that level in his career.

While I would have loved to see the Portland Trail Blazers Take Every Available Bite from Th[eir]Draft Apple by using all four picks, there was also wisdom in consolidating 2 of them to make sure they got another of their guys.

With the Timberwolves being able to buy the 8th overall pick with an unprotected 2031 1st and a 2030 top-one protected pick swap, I’d like to think Portland, with three picks to dangle, could’ve moved up.

Hypothetically speaking, then, I would’ve been psyched out of my mind if the Trail Blazers came away with not one (Donovan Clingan) but two of my crushes. The other was Devin Carter, whom I fell pretty hard for in the days and weeks leading up to the draft.

Here’s why, in an alternate universe nutshell:

“Probably the most appealing part of [his]game lies on the defensive end … By the end of his second year… he established himself as a multi-positional stopper who a coach can put on point guards, shooting guards, and even some small forwards … [He] has outstanding physical tools to be a lockdown defender, with his elite length, strong frame and quick feet … [He] is also a highly competitive guy who is willing to pressure full court, dive to the floor for loose balls, and consistently make things difficult for opposing players …  Has terrific instincts off the ball… Despite being short for the average two-guard, his … wingspan is difficult for opposing guards to shoot over, and he does an exemplary job of using his quickness and strength to stay in front of his man … [His] intangibles are promising as well, and he will likely give NBA teams confidence in his ability to continue improving and reach his full potential … The strides he’s made with his shooting over the past few seasons speaks volumes about his work ethic.”

No, my friends, this isn’t Devin Carter’s nbadraft.net profile; it’s Donovan Mitchell’s. But it’s eerily familiar to Carter’s:

“Among the best and most feisty defensive players in this draft class; flies around and is always looking to create turnovers (1.8 SPG) that lead to transition opportunities … Shows great awareness off the ball, with excellent shot-blocking production from the perimeter added in for good measure (averaged over 1 BPG in each of the past two seasons) … The physical tools and nonstop motor he has also allowed him to produce some truly stellar rebounding numbers from the guard position (8.7 RPG as a Jr., career 6 RPG); is willing to mix it up and throw his weight around with bigger players … A Tasmanian devil on the court who is instinctive and simply has a keen nose for the ball … Easy to see him hounding the other teams best guards on a nightly basis, with the ability to defend taller wings in a pinch too.…

“Watching Carter play, it’s easy to root for him, given his athleticism, livewire energy, and willingness to put his fingerprints in just about every facet of the game … He showed lionhearted toughness, particularly on the defensive end…  He will need to continue to polish his guard skills offensively as well as continue to work on his jumper, but the big strides he made in that area in the short time he played under Kim English make it not-so-wise to write off his shooting splits from this past season as a fluke or magic in a bottle.”

Um, yes, please! And Carter slipping to 13th was maddening, knowing the Blazers had already traded away the 14th pick. So close, yet so far to my wildest draft dreams coming true.

And while it may not be Devin Carter either, there will be two or 3 All-Stars to come out of this ‘Weak’ draft, and Joe & his Cronies opted to take just one swing at landing one. Instead, they placed their sole All-Star bet on Avdija and guaranteed Dalano Banton’s & Jabari Walker’s contracts.

In this game of Would You Rather we’re playing, I’d rather JC & The Cronies have given up just the 2029 1st round pick for Deni and taken more bites out of the 2024 Draft Apple. Keeping Banton and Walker also meant having two fewer roster spots for rookies to fill, so they are a part of this opportunity cost calculus.

I love me some Clingan, like me some Avdija, but I would be over the moon excited if the Portland Trail Blazers came away from this draft/offseason with multiple All-Stars as the Jazz could have from the 2013 Draft. Only time will tell who the drafted All-Stars will be, but the odds are not forever in the Trail Blazers’ favor by virtue of just having fewer chances in the draft to land one, let alone two.

But since hope springs eternal in the offseason, let’s hope the bets placed on Donovan Clingan, Deni Avdija, Dalano Banton, and Jabari Walker pay off just as big, with two of them becoming All-Stars.