Last week, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel surpassed both Georgia’s Carson Beck and Texas’ Quinn Ewers as the favorite to win next season’s Heisman Trophy (via ESPN). David Purdum of ESPN referred to this shift as “an atypical July change for college football’s highest honor,” signaling that this late surge for Gabriel is not one most expected. While his arrival at Oregon over the offseason was met with much excitement and certainly came with an expectation of winning, it made sense that odds favored quarterbacks in more established situations. Beck started all of last year and led Georgia to a dominant 13-1 record and Orange Bowl win, and Ewers spearheaded a 10-2 Texas team on the brink of the college playoff. Both remain great cases to win the Heisman, and the odds reflect that, but Gabriel’s movement into the top spot deserves analysis as to why this change happened.
Gabriel is nearing the end of his collegiate journey, playing in what will be his 6th college football season come the start of the 2024 campaign. With stops at UCF and, most recently, an excellent Oklahoma team, Gabriel has shown consistent, potent passing talent combined with versatile range and a knack for limiting mistakes. Along with 30 passing touchdowns in the 2023 season, he added 12 rushing touchdowns, showcasing his athleticism and touch around the goal line. He also has the slightly immeasurable advantage of significant experience, having led multiple high-powered offenses by this time in his career, and is accustomed to the shifting landscape of college football, where both teammates and coaches are constantly changing around you as a star player. Oregon will be a completely new environment, and while the possibility of that leading to setbacks exists, Gabriel’s resume says he will be well suited to the challenge.
The Oregon Ducks team he’ll be joining is also absurdly well equipped to support an elite quarterback such as Gabriel, boasting a level of talent that matches or exceeds their new conference opponents. Joining the Big-10 after the swift collapse of the Pac-12 was a declarative statement that they were ready to ascend to a higher tier of competition and go from a great transfer in QB in Bo Nix to another in Gabriel, which is an adherence to this trajectory. Of course, this was helped by the fact that Oregon spent the 2010s molding itself in the image of more historically dominant programs, especially becoming a recruiting force under the leadership of SEC product and current head coach Dan Lanning. According to 247’s composite rankings, the Ducks 2024 recruiting class was listed as the 3rd best in the nation, with 22 consensus four-star recruits and six three-star (via The Register-Guard).
All this being said, Gabriel will face stiff competition from the rest of the collegiate field. Beck and Ewers were already mentioned and remain firmly in the mix, as does Jalen Milroe, who asserted himself as both the starting quarterback for Alabama and as a force in the SEC last season. His blend of raw physicality, speed, and emerging passing ability is a must-watch, and Alabama has an excellent roster around him. According to some experts, Colorado star Shedeur Sanders could be the #1 pick in the next NFL draft, and even though the team couldn’t match the hype last year, he showed off unmissable talent. Colorado had one of the worst offensive lines in D1 football, and he still managed to throw for 27 touchdowns. He led the team to wins over TCU and Nebraska, and near upsets of ranked Arizona and USC teams. Sanders’s teammate Travis Hunter could also be part of the conversation, as his rare two-way ability as both a receiver and defensive back is one of the more stunning spectacles in the sport, both professional and collegiate.
Ultimately, Gabriel’s fate in the Heisman race will be decided by how much he thrives in this wickedly talented Oregon offense, filled with receiver talent ready to be fed by a great passer. Evan Stewart, a five-star freshman who de-committed from Texas A&M in December to join the Ducks, is perhaps the most exciting of the group. He will be flanked by senior Tez Johnson, who had 1,100+ yards and 10 touchdowns for Oregon last year, and Traeshawn Holden, who comes highly touted through the transfer portal from Alabama. When looking at history, Heisman voters tend to favor two archetypes: a player with such a statistical edge over the field they can’t help but win (i.e., Jayden Daniels) or the best player (usually a quarterback) on the best team. While it is certainly plausible that Gabriel puts up some pretty stunning statistics, I think his best bet is having a very good season in terms of personal number on a national championship contender and probable winner in Oregon.
