No matter what you believe about the Seattle Kraken and their play during the 2023-24 season, you cannot say they’ve been anything but consistent – for better and for worse.
The Kraken went 8-8-5 over their first 21 games before being mired in an eight-game losing streak, during which they were outscored 27-13 by their opposition. That slump was followed up by an improbable nine-game winning streak, which vaulted the club back into the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
The latter streak ended on Jan. 15 and initiated another run of losing, which currently stands at four consecutive losses as of Jan. 22., with only four games remaining on the Kraken’s schedule until the 2024 NHL All-Star break (Feb. 1-3).
One bright spot: three of the four games come against teams in the bottom five of the overall league standings by points percentage (PTS%) in the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Blackhawks, and the San Jose Sharks. If the Kraken can’t come out with at least two wins during that stretch, they might fall too far back of the pack with less than half of the season remaining.
With that in mind, let’s dive into what the playoff picture looks like in the West, who stands in the Kraken’s path towards qualification, and the team’s odds at being on the right side of the postseason margin come season’s end.
Western Conference Playoff Picture Getting Crowded
The Edmonton Oilers’ franchise-record winning streak has launched them back into the third and final automatic Pacific Division playoff spot. They sit six points ahead of the Kraken but also have four games in hand. The Vancouver Canucks and the Vegas Golden Knights are 21 and 13 points ahead of the Kraken, respectively, as the top two seeds in the Pacific, though Seattle has a game in hand on both.
That leaves two wildcard spots for the Kraken to battle for in the Western Conference, with seven teams – including the Kraken – having a realistic shot at the wildcard.
The Los Angeles Kings (53 points in 44 games) and the Nashville Predators (51 in 47) occupy the first two slots. Also ahead of the Kraken are the Arizona Coyotes (49 in 45) and the Calgary Flames (47 in 46), with the St. Louis Blues (46 in 44) and the Minnesota Wild (45 in 46) as the only other teams with a realistic chance of making the playoffs.
Of the Kraken’s six major rivals for the two wildcard spots, almost all have a multi-point lead in the standings, games in hand, or both. This means that the Kraken have to outplay four of the six teams down the stretch, which is more complicated than it sounds. Luckily for the Kraken, they can count on a favorable schedule down the stretch, which they must capitalize on to earn crucial points in the playoff race.
Kraken’s Remaining Schedule Provides Hope for Playoff Qualification
One factor working in the Kraken’s favor is that they own one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NHL by opponent PTS%, largely owing to the basement-dwellers occupying the bottom of the Pacific Division.
Apart from three matchups coming against each of the Sharks and Ducks, Seattle can count on six total games against the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, and the Buffalo Sabres. For those counting at home, that’s 12 games still to come against teams currently below them in the standings by PTS%, or a third of their remaining schedule. Hockey is the sport with the most randomness built into it, so the Kraken shouldn’t believe that they will have 12 wins and 24 points to show from that collection of opponents.
Further, the NHL’s insistence on using the much-maligned “loser point” makes it much more difficult to gain ground on the teams ahead of you in the standings. It will be tough for the Kraken to climb back into a wildcard place as a result, even with a relatively weaker slate of opponents coming up in the second half of the season.
Barring a clean sweep of those weaker teams, the Kraken will likely be on the outside looking in at the end of the regular season. MoneyPuck gives the Kraken less than a 40% chance of making the playoffs, while The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn is even more pessimistic with his model assigning them around a 20% chance to qualify for the postseason.
Those numbers should highlight how dire the situation is for the Kraken, giving them almost no room for error over the final few months of the season.
Kraken Should Pivot Towards a Rebuild Rather than Chase a Playoff Spot
I’ve already made my opinion on this matter known, but in case you missed it, the Kraken should change their organizational direction. The current roster is filled with players in or exiting their playing prime, with eight lineup regulars currently aged 29 or older.
There’s nothing wrong with that on a season-to-season basis, but it doesn’t bode well when none of those players can legitimately be labeled as a star player in the NHL. 27-year-old defenseman Vince Dunn is the closest thing the Kraken have to such a player (ninth in scoring by defensemen over the past two seasons), but even he’s closer to the end of his prime than the beginning.
21-year-old center Matty Beniers had a strong rookie season with 24 goals and 57 points in 80 games to win the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s top freshman, but his sophomore campaign has been a disaster. He’s only tallied six goals and 19 points in 42 games and currently finds himself on injured reserve.
Shane Wright navigated a trying first professional season, shuttling between the Ontario Hockey League, the World Junior Championships, the American Hockey League, and the NHL. He’s played with the Kraken’s affiliate in the Coachella Valley Firebirds on a full-time basis, scoring 15 goals and 28 points in 35 games. He only turned 20 a few weeks ago, so it looks like he might just hit his star potential after all.
A rebuild should always be more enticing than occupying the NHL’s mushy middle for years on end. The NHL Draft is the easiest way to acquire an elite star, and selling off assets for draft picks gives you even more lottery tickets. The Kraken are too good to bottom out this season, but a well-timed tear-down could put them in a prime position to grab a high pick in the 2025 and 2026 drafts.
There’s no guarantee that a rebuild will go well, but it’s better than being satisfied with hovering around .500 every season and seeing winning a championship as little more than a pipe dream.
Data courtesy of the NHL.
