Not to prematurely sound the alarm, but the Seattle Kraken’s 2023-24 campaign could already be in danger of spiraling dangerously out of control. Yes, I understand that that kind of response could be interpreted as a wild overreaction to an extremely small sample of games, but history suggests that strong starts are imperative to clinching a playoff berth, let alone winning the Stanley Cup.
There’s no way to sugarcoat the Kraken’s poor start to the season. The darlings of the 2023 Playoffs have fallen well short of heightened expectations and currently own a dismal record of 2-5-2 through nine games. They sit 29th overall in the league standings by points percentage (PTS%), and a gaudy minus-11 goal differential accompanies their record, the third-worst mark so far this season.
The factors behind Seattle’s disappointing start to the year have already been well-explored by yours truly. Instead, this piece will address just how much is at stake for the Kraken over the next month and just how quickly a playoff spot can slip out of a team’s grip. Let’s dive in.
NHL History Not on Kraken’s Side
You may be asking why all the consternation about the Kraken’s start if 90% of the season is still left to be played. To keep it simple, NHL history suggests that if a team is outside of a playoff spot by the end of November, it is highly unlikely that they will end up qualifying for the postseason in any capacity.
This trend is notable in two ways. First, good teams generally win more games, so by November, enough time has passed that the league has amassed a somewhat significant sample of games that true talent has begun to sort the standings accordingly. If you haven’t won often enough to keep pace at this point, you’re probably not a good team.
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The second is that the end of November usually marks the season’s quarter-point, and that’s more than enough time for a wide gap in points to form. Even something innocuous like 10 points can be a lot to make up if there are multiple teams in front of you and you have to contend with the NHL’s misguided loser-point system simultaneously.
There are the occasional outliers, of course (like the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues), but the evidence is stacked against teams on the wrong side of the playoff line come American Thanksgiving. The Kraken should do everything in their power to be in the vicinity by the end of November.
Kraken Face a Difficult Upcoming Schedule
The Kraken are scheduled to finish the month of October with a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning (Oct. 30), the winners of two of the last three Stanley Cups and currently 11th in the league standings with a record of 4-2-2.
Throughout November, the Kraken will face the Colorado Avalanche (6-2-0, fourth overall) twice, the Vancouver Canucks (5-2-1, fifth overall) twice, and the Toronto Maple Leafs (5-2-1, seventh overall) once.
It’s only fair also to mention that the Kraken will also play the Edmonton Oilers twice in November, despite their awful start (more on them later).
Beyond the next month or so, it is possible to extrapolate and estimate how difficult the Kraken’s slate of remaining games is compared to the rest of the league. Using Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule (SOS) metric, their formula (combined points per game for all remaining opponents) suggests that Seattle’s overall remaining schedule is much more forgiving.
As of this writing, the Kraken have the fifth-easiest schedule over the rest of the year, with multiple games against the San Jose Sharks (32nd overall), Chicago Blackhawks (28th), Calgary Flames (31st), and Arizona Coyotes (26th) still on the docket.
It should be noted that these calculations can admittedly be slightly wonky early on in the year due to unexpectedly hot or cold starts by teams on either end of the competitive spectrum.
If the Blackhawks (who were predicted to challenge for the first-overall pick again) win half of their games to start the year, their competency might screw with the SOS metric. No one would expect the team to maintain their improved pace all year, so their early success could be making certain teams’ schedules appear more difficult than they are in reality.
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Another example is that the Oilers – a Western Conference finalist in both of the past two seasons – have started the season with an unexpectedly dismal record of 2-5-1 and have posted a minus-10 goal differential.
A mini-slump in October will be long-forgotten by the spring if Edmonton makes another deep run in the postseason, and I’d bet on the Oilers’ stars to figure things out.
Despite the small sample size, we can only work with the data at hand, and there remains a tiny kernel of truth hidden within the numbers, no matter how limited.
A Weak Pacific Division Could Be Kraken’s Saving Grace
Fortunately for the Kraken, the Pacific Division is arguably the NHL’s weakest this season. Four of the bottom-five teams in the league by PTS% reside in the Pacific (including the Kraken), giving Seattle the privilege of facing off against easier competition relative to teams in the other divisions.
The division title is probably out of reach, given that the Vegas Golden Knights are already 11 points clear on the Kraken before November. Still, Seattle remains four points out of an automatic Pacific Division playoff spot and is losing out on a wildcard place by two points.
The Kraken have put themselves in a hole with their early struggles, but the good news is, it’s still early. A winning record in November would likely see them climb into the wildcard race at the very least, so all is not lost. Even so, they should still try to get a move on before it’s really too late.
