Seattle Kraken Must Get Wins In Crucial Week 7 Matchups

Now, breathe. After forcing me to sound the alarm last week, the Seattle Kraken went out and made me look foolish by collecting a pair of notable wins in matching 4-3 victories against the New York Islanders and the red-hot Vancouver Canucks.

The fact that Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle – two of the Kraken’s most disappointing players through the first month of the season – played starring roles in their most recent wins bodes well for the rest of November. Eberle tallied four points (one goal and three assists), while Beniers scored two goals and three points over the two games, including what turned out to be the game-winner against the Canucks.

The Kraken are not out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination, but another week of strong results could help them leapfrog several teams in the Western Conference wildcard race. Seattle’s record currently stands at 7-8-4 through 19 games and puts them on the outskirts of the playoff picture by points percentage (PTS%).

In Week 7 of the 2023-24 NHL season, the Kraken are scheduled to face off against three divisional rivals in the Calgary Flames (Nov. 20), San Jose Sharks (Nov. 22), and the Vancouver Canucks (Nov. 24). Positive results in two or more of those games could help the Kraken build off of their current push of momentum and launch them into a playoff spot by American Thanksgiving, a date that holds statistical significance in recent NHL history.

With that, let’s dive into each of this week’s games in turn and explain why the Kraken must collect a win, how likely they are to emerge victorious in each matchup, and why sitting in a playoff spot by Thanksgiving is so important to the NHL playoff race.

Calgary Flames (6-8-3)

The Flames’ promotion of assistant coach Ryan Huska to the head coaching position (also formerly the head coach of their American Hockey League affiliate) signaled a reversal in philosophy from the historically successful but outdated methods of the previous coach in Darryl Sutter. Through a month and change, the swap has not yet reaped the anticipated rewards in the standings.

The Flames sit three points back of the Kraken with two games in hand, so a victory here would cut down on Calgary’s scheduling advantage. The Kraken have eyes on the teams in front of them, but it would be unwise to ignore those chasing them from the doldrums of the standings.

The Flames’ offense has been stagnant, averaging only 2.82 goals per game to rank in the bottom half of the league. Blake Coleman leads the team in goalscoring with five tallies in 17 games (24-goal pace), while Elias Lindholm paces the team with 12 points in 17 appearances, representing a 58-point clip over 82 games.

Those represent some of the lowest team-leading marks around the NHL, and it’s no surprise that the Flames also boast an impotent power play (26th at 12.7%) as well as ranking bottom-five in the NHL in all-situations shooting percentage (8.6%).

The Kraken shouldn’t lay off the gas, however, as there is some evidence that the Flames are getting a bit unlucky, given that they rank 12th in expected goals and high-danger chances for per-60 in all situations but 24th in terms of actual goals.

An injection of young talent has also jump-started what was threatening to become another lost season after a miserable 2-6-1 start, with the team going 4-2-2 since the start of November.

The Kraken should be confident heading into this matchup, but the Flames have been playing better than their record indicates, which could lull Seattle into a false sense of security come Monday night.

San Jose Sharks (3-13-1)

Oh dear. The Sharks are on pace to set a new NHL record for futility with their .206 PTS% putting them on track to accumulate only 34 points this season, only 13 more than the infamous 1974-75 Washington Capitals, who hold the current record (minimum 70-game schedule).

If the Sharks continue on their current trajectory, they would become the third organization after the Capitals and the Ottawa Senators to own two of the NHL’s ten-worst seasons in league history by PTS%. They’re also on pace to score the fewest goals ever in a single season, even fewer than the 1953-54 Blackhawks, who only played a 70-game schedule.

Related:  What Can Previous Expansion Teams Teach Us About The Seattle Kraken?

The point is the Sharks stink, and that game should represent two points in the bank. The Kraken own the seventh-best power play in the league (25.4%), while the Sharks unsurprisingly own the 29th-ranked penalty kill at 71.4%. The Sharks also lead the league in shots, expected goals, chances, and high-danger chances allowed per-60-minutes in all situations.

The Kraken have by no means set the league on fire this season (28th in goals per game), but this should be an easy win, even if they shouldn’t take the Sharks for granted. Just ask the Edmonton Oilers.

Vancouver Canucks (12-5-1)

What hasn’t gone right for the Canucks this season? Goaltender Thatcher Demko leads the NHL in goals saved above expected (GSAx) with a plus-10.7 margin and is the early favorite for the Vezina Trophy.

Vancouver is running an absolute inferno of a power play (third at 32.4%) and leads the league in goals per game (4.17) behind Hart- and Norris Trophy-caliber campaigns from their two superstars in center Elias Pettersson and defenseman Quinn Hughes.

The pair are currently in a three-way tie with teammate J.T. Miller for the league lead in points (28). Brock Boeser (tied-second) and Miller (tied-fourth) are also among the league leaders in goals scored this season.

The Canucks have lost two in a row and three of their last five, so they’ve cooled down a bit after their scorching 10-2-1 start. However, they still sit comfortably in one of the Pacific Division’s three automatic playoff spots and are within striking distance of the Vegas Golden Knights for the division crown.

Luckily, the Canucks have two weaknesses that the Kraken can exploit. Vancouver’s penalty kill ranks in the bottom half of the NHL at 77.2% and relies on Demko to bail them out. They rank 31st in shots and scoring chances conceded, 30th in expected goals against, and 25th in high-danger chances allowed per-60 while shorthanded. The Kraken’s power play has been one of the lone bright spots to start the year, so they should be salivating at the chance to pounce on a vulnerable opponent.

The second weakness is the Canucks’ own struggles at controlling play five-on-five. Take a look at how the Kraken – who have also not fared all that well – compare to Vancouver in several key categories, with their NHL rank in parentheses:

Though the Kraken are a middle-of-the-pack group at five-on-five, the Canucks are hovering at or just outside the bottom-third of the NHL in every meaningful category apart from goals. They rank second overall with a five-on-five goal-share of 61.4%, outsourcing the opposition 43-27 in large part by the league’s highest PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) at five-on-five.

The Canucks are one of the hottest teams in the NHL at the moment, but they’re not invincible. The Kraken should head into their showdown with the belief that they can steal two points out from under the noses of their geographical rivals, with the added motivation of re-entering the playoff fold.

U.S. Thanksgiving Looms Large for the Kraken

So, why is American Thanksgiving so important within the context of the NHL playoff picture? According to trends spanning recent seasons, around three-quarters of the teams occupying a playoff position at the time of the holiday end up qualifying for the postseason at the end of the season. 

A team’s fate is by no means sealed by this arbitrary date, but their full-season outlook definitely appears much brighter if they sit in a playoff spot at what is usually the quarter-mark of the season.

Of the teams that end up falling out of position, most of the re-juggling is done on the outskirts of the playoff race. For the teams running away with a highly sought-after playoff berth – those with a PTS% of .675 or higher, for example – enough points can be banked early on that a mid- or late-season slump has little bearing on their qualification efforts.

Nine teams are collecting points at a rate of .675 or higher as of this writing, and looking at their underlying numbers, I’d expect every one of them to make the playoffs. That gives us just over half of the field, which is pretty much in line with what’s happened in recent years.

Of course, the Kraken could win 75% of their final 63 games and coast into the playoffs to become one of the outliers in the data set. They won 32 of their final 60 games last season after earning a record of 14-5-3 in their first 22 games through the end of November, finishing 12th in the overall league standings with 100 points on the year.

The point is, it’s a long season, and a lot can happen from now until April. Yet, history says Thanksgiving carries significance beyond representing an opportunity to be a glutton free of judgment. The Kraken would be wise to heed that warning, starting with this week’s three games.

Data courtesy of MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.