Seattle Kraken Getting Good Goaltending To End 2024

Since the start of December, the Seattle Kraken have found themselves amid a good run of form. Despite a 5-1 drubbing at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night (Dec. 14), Dan Bylsma’s men own a record of 4-2-1 through the first seven games of December, bringing their overall season record to 15-15-2 with a points percentage (PTS%) of .500. Seattle sits three points back of the second wild card spot in the Western Conference, but have to leapfrog at least three teams to get there.

Apart from an improved attack (the Kraken are sixth in the NHL with 3.57 goals per game in December), the team has received stellar goaltending from their tandem of Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer. The pair have traded starts to start the month ( Grubauer with four and Daccord with three), and both have upped their numbers heading into the new year to give the Kraken a welcome boost, ranking 10th in team save percentage (SV%) in December.

Grubauer Becoming Serviceable Option

When it comes to the Kraken’s goaltending situation, Daccord has rarely set a foot wrong. Since the 28-year-old assumed the team’s starting job in net last season, he ranks fifth in SV% (.916), eighth in goals-against average (2.45 GAA), and has saved the fifth-most goals above expected (plus-29.3 GSAx) among qualified goalies (minimum ten games played). Considering he’s only made $1.2 million against the cap this season and last, his cost-adjusted-value is arguably the highest in the league.

In contrast, Grubauer has failed to deliver an adequate return on investment. Despite being among the league’s highest-paid goalies since joining the Kraken ($5.9 million average annual value), the German netminder ranks below average by every publicly available metric. Across his 142-game Kraken tenure, he owns a .892 SV%, a 3.03 GAA, and has allowed over 34 goals more than expected, the worst mark in the league since the start of the 2021-22 season. That history makes his recent returns more surprising but welcome nonetheless.

Over his four appearances in December, Grubauer has two wins, a .905 SV%, a 3.28 GAA, but a plus-1.33 GSAx. He’s been above average this month, which doesn’t seem like it’s saying much, but his performance is better than the fanbase has come to expect over his four years with the organization. He may never play at the level suggested by his cap hit, but even being above average would benefit the Kraken at this point.

Although Bylsma has tapped Grubauer for more starts this month, Daccord has continued to be one of the best goalies in the league this season. He’s won two of his three starts in December, carries a .938 SV%, and has saved almost four goals more than expected.

All three marks are top 10 in the league this month among qualified goalies (minimum two appearances), so it’s a shame that there is no All-Star Game this season due to the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off. If Daccord were eligible for selection, there is no doubt that he would be named one of Canada’s three goaltenders for the tournament and would arguably have the strongest claim for the starting job.

Interestingly enough, the Kraken rank fifth in the NHL by SV% while shorthanded (.886), while their SV% at five-on-five (.906) ranks 21st. The numbers make sense as the Kraken rank 20th in expected goals against per-60-minutes at five-on-five, so there is no argument that they’re getting unlucky in that department. On the other hand, the data suggests that the Kraken’s SV% on the penalty kill could be due to regression.

They rank second-last in expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances against per-60 while shorthanded, meaning that their goaltending in that game state is wildly over-performing expectations. A crash back down to Earth isn’t guaranteed to happen, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a decline over the second half of the season. If that happens, they have to hope that their performances elsewhere (power play and five-on-five goalscoring in particular) see an uptick and make up the difference.

Kraken Need Sustained Excellence from Goalies to Make Playoffs

Given that the Kraken remain a bottom-half team in the NHL by goals per game, any run made at qualifying for the 2025 NHL Playoffs will have to be powered by the club’s goaltending tandem.

As a team, the Kraken rank 14th by SV% (.896), mostly by way of Daccord’s exemplary efforts in the crease. Regardless, Bylsma seems keen on running a timeshare in net rather than handing one goalie significantly more starts than the other. Daccord has 20 to Grubauer’s 12 midway through December, and the recent pattern suggests a discrepancy greater than ten starts by the end of the season would be unexpected.

If that is the case, the Kraken need Grubauer to maintain his recent stretch of steady and reliable play. A .879 SV% is unacceptable for any goaltender, but least of all for one sitting ninth in cap hit among active netminders. Since the average NHL SV% hit .911 during the 2014-15 season, it has declined every season since and has reached .894 this season, the lowest average mark since the 1993-94 season. If Grubauer can elevate himself to at least the league average, the Kraken would likely see a jump in team success.

Even with 50 games remaining in the 2024-25 season, the Kraken are slowly losing ground in the playoff race. They are only three points back of the final playoff spot in the West, but the teams ahead of them hold crucial games in hand. All of the major outlets currently give the Kraken a likelihood of under 30% to make the playoffs, so while all is not lost, the NHL is too competitive to give up points due to poor goaltending. If the team average is raised, the sky’s the limit (sort of). If not, a fourth season out of the playoffs in five years in existence is likely in the cards for the Kraken.

Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.