Seattle Kraken – 4 Keys To A Successful 2024 Offseason

While the NHL’s field of playoff teams continues to battle in the postseason, the Seattle Kraken—the darlings of the 2023 Playoffs—have been left to pick up the pieces of their shattered dreams of lifting the Stanley Cup. 

Perhaps a little melodramatic, but there is no doubt that the 2023-24 season was and should be seen as thoroughly disappointing after a surprising 100-point campaign and the franchise’s first-ever playoff series win in 2022-23.

A lot went wrong for the Kraken throughout the season, with injuries testing the depth of their roster, players unable to recreate career-best performances, and lengthy losing streaks derailing any sense of momentum.

The Kraken have a bright future despite the underwhelming season, but general manager Ron Francis will have to navigate what could prove to be a turbulent offseason this summer. A handful of notable restricted (RFA) and unrestricted (UFA) free agents will likely command the majority of his attention, though trying to get younger and faster via the trade market should be near the top of his priority list.

Francis left the possibility of significant changes to the team’s coaching staff, with upper management still amid end-of-season evaluations. Head coach Dave Hakstol has enjoyed a mixed tenure in terms of success, but a change in personnel could signal a change in the organization’s competitive mindset as well as on-ice philosophy.

Let’s examine five of the organization’s most important offseason tasks and how completing (or not completing) them could shape the roster during the 2024-25 season and beyond.

Evaluate Potential Head Coaching Options

Let’s start at the top, where Hakstol’s future with the Kraken is uncertain after a 20-point drop-off from the season prior and missing the playoffs for the second time in his three-year tenure.

Hakstol boasts a mediocre record of 107-112-27 and a .490 points percentage (PTS%) over three seasons with the Kraken, playing at an average 80-point pace. He’s also won seven out of the team’s 14 playoff games (all in 2023), coming within one win of an appearance in the Western Conference Final.

The Kraken have been a top-half team by shot- and chance-share metrics at five-on-five over Hakstol’s three seasons at the helm, but those numbers dipped this season and combined with subpar goaltending and a lack of elite offensive talent at his disposal, may have sealed his fate.

The NHL’s coaching carousel is always full, but a few names stand out when it comes to filling vacancies this summer.

First is the former head coach of the Edmonton Oilers, Jay Woodcroft, fired earlier this season after the Stanley Cup hopefuls started the campaign with only three wins out of their first 13 games. The poor results likely had more to do with the Oilers’ goaltenders collectively posting a .863 save percentage (SV%) over that time (last in the NHL at that point), but Woodcroft paid the price nonetheless.

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Woodcroft boasted the eighth-highest PTS% in NHL history (minimum 100 games coached) and steered the Oilers to the 2022 Western Conference Final, where they lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions Colorado Avalanche. At only 47 years old, Woodcroft is a younger coach who could help connect with and guide the prospects to graduate into full-time NHL roles in the coming seasons, though joining a more competitive situation may be more enticing.

Another name that has gained steam in NHL circles over recent years is 36-year-old Ryan Warsofsky, currently an assistant coach with the San Jose Sharks. He’s found a ton of early success as a head coach in the minor leagues, reaching the 2017 Kelly Cup Finals with the ECHL’s South Carolina Stingrays and winning the 2022 Calder Cup with the AHL’s Chicago Wolves. 

Warsofsky is even younger than Woodcroft and has experience tutoring a fledgling blue line in San Jose. The Sharks just announced firing former head coach David Quinn, so he may find himself in line for a promotion. If not, the Kraken would do well to inquire about one of the sport’s brightest up-and-comers.

The third option is something of a package duo, with the Kraken’s AHL affiliate, the Coachella Valley Firebirds, offering a pair of interesting coaching alternatives. The team’s head coach (Dan Bylsma) and lead assistant (Jessica Campbell) would likely top the Kraken’s shortlist if they were to part ways with Hakstol, especially if they wanted to promote from within.

Bylsma would have a leg-up due to having coached eight seasons in the NHL (2008-17) split between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Buffalo Sabres, winning the 2009 Stanley Cup with the Penguins, and being awarded the 2010-11 Jack Adams Award winner as the best coach in the NHL that season. He has spearheaded the Firebirds to the second-best cumulative record in the AHL over their first two seasons of existence (only the Hershey Bears are better) and came within one win of capturing the 2023 Calder Cup.

On the other hand, Campbell would represent a barrier-defying hire, with the AHL’s first full-time female coach overcoming a number of hardships to get to her position. She would be an unconventional choice and one lacking the top-level experience of some of the other names that would be in the conversation for the job, but she offers a unique perspective.  

I can see the two both receiving promotions, with Bylsma taking the Kraken head coaching gig while Campbell either follows him to the NHL as an assistant or assumes the lead role behind the bench for the Firebirds. In either case, I think a familiar face would move up, especially since they’ve achieved great success in the minors.

Move on From Aging Players and Promote Top Prospects 

The Kraken tried to achieve immediate success upon joining the NHL, selecting several veterans to fill out their roster during the expansion draft and signing more in free agency following their inaugural campaign. The strategy worked to some degree, as the team earned its first-ever playoff berth and 100-point season in 2022-23. Still, there looks to be a ceiling on how much this group can achieve as currently constructed with no bonafide superstar currently on the roster.

According to Hockey Reference, the Kraken are 10th in average age and have 11 players on their roster aged 30 or older and seven who are 32 or older. The organization could use younger, more promising talent and is in a good position to do so with Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (39), Justin Schultz (33), and Tomas Tatar (33) all set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

Brian Dumoulin (31), Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev, and Adam Larsson (all three are 32) will be out of contract as of the 2025 offseason, suggesting that the Kraken could see significant turnover in both their forward group and defensive core.

With the playoffs out of reach, the Kraken extended opportunities to several rising prospects. Ryker Evans (36 games), Ryan Winterton (nine games), Shane Wright (eight games), and Logan Morrison (four games) all saw time in the NHL this season. It’s feasible that at least three will be regulars in 2024-25, especially if the aforementioned 2024 UFAs are not retained.

Leading that group is the 20-year-old Wright, who earned a recall after a strong season in the American Hockey League (AHL) with the Coachella Valley Firebirds. He tallied four goals and five points over five games (his other three games came in November) before being sent back to the AHL to avoid burning the first year of his entry-level contract (ELC) while also reinforcing the Firebirds ahead of what should be another deep run in the Calder Cup Playoffs.

Working in Wright’s favor for next season is that Hakstol clearly felt more comfortable trotting him out regularly upon his recall. He averaged only 9:48 minutes per game across his three appearances in November but shot up to nearly 16 minutes per night in all situations during his five-game audition in April, including over two minutes on the power play.

There was doubt over whether Wright was actually the caliber of prospect worth selecting in the top five of the draft. Still, the young center is finally trending in the right direction after a turbulent start to his professional career. Expect him and a few of his Firebirds teammates to line up for the Kraken next season.

Extend Key RFAs in Beniers and Tolvanen

Francis does not have too busy of an offseason in terms of re-signing pending free agents, with Matty Beniers and Eeli Tolvanen the key RFAs needing a new contract next season.

The Beniers negotiation figures to be difficult, with the 2023 Calder Trophy winner experiencing a significant drop-off from his 24-goal, 57-point performance as a rookie. The two-way center saw his scoring totals dip across the board while only tallying 17 goals and 37 points as a sophomore. He led all Kraken forwards in average even-strength ice time and ranked third in average usage on the power play.

Working in his favor is the fact that he only turns 22 in November, the entire Kraken roster saw a year-over-year reduction in scoring, and his depressed offensive output was more of a byproduct of a regression in shooting percentage rather than an abrupt loss of skill. Unfortunately for him, his diminished box score statistics will cost him in contract talks, and a bridge deal could represent a compromise in which he can prove himself worthy of a more lucrative extension.

Here’s a look at a few positional comparables on whom Beniers could base his contract demands, with annual average value (AAV) and contract length:

Nick Suzuki was coming off of an impressive showing in the Montreal Canadiens’ unexpected run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final (16 points in 22 playoff games) and signed the longest deal of any of the four comparables, which raised his AAV.

Dylan Cozens earned his hefty extension in the aftermath of a 31-goal, 68-point campaign in his third full NHL season, but like Beniers, he saw his production drop to 18 goals and 47 points this season.

Filip Chytil’s contract should provide the absolute floor for Beniers’ negotiations, with the New York Rangers’ forward signing his deal in the midst of a 22-goal, 45-point season. Not only has Beniers already bested that output, but he’s two years younger than Chytil was at the time of signing and is much more integral to his team at this stage of their careers.

Trevor Zegras’ contract is around the ballpark of what I’d expect Beniers to sign if he goes for a three-year deal. Working against him is that Zegras had posted two consecutive 60-point seasons at the time of his signing.

If Beniers settles for anything shorter than a three-year term, I’d expect him to come in at $5.5 million or under and closer to $7 or $8 million if he goes beyond the five-year mark. Signing a short-term bridge deal is in his best interest, as his bargaining power is at its lowest after a disappointing offensive showing in 2023-24.

Eeli Tolvanen immediately delivered upon being claimed off of waivers from the Nashville Predators last season, scoring 16 goals and 27 points in 48 games with the Kraken. Those numbers represented a 27-goal, 46-point pace over 82 games, but the Finnish winger failed to replicate them over an entire season, once again scoring 16 goals but taking 81 games to do so in 2023-24.

Tolvanen counted for $1.45 million against the cap this season. The Kraken own his rights as an RFA, but he is eligible for arbitration, which gives him some leverage. At 25 years old, his best bet is to take a short-term deal with a slight raise and outperform his contract to set himself up for a bigger payday while still being 27 or 28 when he hits the open market.

Francis should have around $21 million of cap space this summer with 17 full-time players under contract through next season (including Evans and Wright), so he will have a lot of wiggle room when it comes to RFA negotiations. Expect both players back at reasonable numbers for 2024-25.

Acquire Promising Players Looking for More Opportunity

As the Kraken proved with Tolvanen, sometimes a player just needs to land in a new environment to find success. Though he was a waiver pickup, the Kraken could look to acquire disgruntled players looking for a fresh start or a greater role than their current clubs can offer for any number of reasons.

Kent Johnson (16 points in 42 games with the Columbus Blue Jackets) is an intriguing name due to his draft pedigree (selected fifth-overall in the 2021 NHL Draft) and familiarity with Beniers, with the two being former teammates with the Michigan Wolverines of the NCAA.

Johnson starred for the Wolverines, amassing 17 goals and 47 assists (64 points) in 58 regular-season games over his collegiate career. He scored an impressive 40 points in 79 games during his rookie season in the NHL but struggled at both ends to start his sophomore season and was sent to the AHL to refine his game. He rattled off 15 points in 10 games to earn a recall but saw his season cut short due to suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery.

The relationship between team and player appears to be mended (for now), but he’s the type of talent that the Kraken should be targeting this summer.

Nick Robertson is another name I’ll mention. The 22-year-old forward has scored 14 goals and 27 points in 56 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs this season. This is the first time he’s played in more than 15 NHL games in a single season, but the Maple Leafs’ enviable forward depth and injury troubles have limited his post-junior development.

The zippy winger scored 22 goals and 41 points over his last 39 AHL games, which were spread over three seasons, but he has frequently been a healthy scratch on numerous occasions due to the redundancy of his skill set within Toronto’s lineup. Robertson is undoubtedly small in stature, and his health and durability are legitimate concerns, but he pairs quickness and an NHL-level shot, which could flourish in an increased role.

Arthur Kaliyev (Los Angeles Kings), Kaapo Kakko (New York Rangers), and Anton Lundell (Florida Panthers) are three other examples of players who fit the Tolvanen mold. Francis should at least investigate each of the names mentioned in this section, though the acquisition cost may be prohibitive given their draft stock.

2024 NHL Offseason Promises to Be a Busy One for the Kraken

Although the 2023-24 season was a clear disappointment for the Kraken, the organization’s future is bright. They boast an enviable farm system for a franchise that has only participated in three drafts to date and will have five picks over the first three rounds of the 2024 NHL Draft.

Francis will be busy with contract talks for six pending free agents at the NHL level, and getting younger and faster will likely be a top priority on his list of priorities.

I wouldn’t guarantee that the Kraken will make the playoffs next season or that they’ll improve on their 80-point campaign, but the 2024 offseason could prove to be a watershed moment in the franchise’s history. For now, sit back and enjoy the ride; the Kraken will soon rise again.

Data courtesy of Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.