Week eight of 2024 includes two matchups among ranked teams: Alabama (5-1) visits Tennessee (5-1), and Miami (Fl) (6-0) is at Louisville (4-2). My savvygameline.com prediction system says both games will be upsets.
Second-ranked Oregon is fresh from a one-point win over #4 Ohio State and now travels to Indiana to play an erratic bunch of Purdue Boilermakers.
#2 Oregon (6-0) at Purdue (1-5)
Steve Martin once said, “A day without sunshine is like, you know — night.”
I wonder how dark it is at Purdue, with a football team on a five-game skid and a future with three top-five opponents in the next four weeks.
It’s been so hard at PU that just one month into the season, Purdue became the first FBS program in America to fire a coordinator. That’s what head coach Ryan Walters did on October 1 when he canned renowned offensive guru Graham Harrell.
That move seemed odd because Purdue’s offense had some good things going. According to NCAA.com, the ground game was in the top 30 in yards per carry, and the offense overall was in the upper half of the FBS in yards per play.
Meanwhile, the Boilermaker defense ranks 97th in yards allowed per play and 122nd in yards allowed per rush. In the past two games, that defense has given up 102 points to teams that had never scored more than 28.
Yet, defensive coordinator Kevin Kane remains.
Will Walters stick with Kane if Oregon’s offense puts up another 50?
For an Illini rush-first offense to score 43 points and earn over 500 yards in four quarters last week was an anomaly for the Illini and a testimony to Purdue’s defensive woes.
It appears to me that part of Purdue’s defensive problem is schematic. When defenses commit too many resources to get into opponents’ backfields for sacks or tackles for loss, they often deplete the resources necessary to deal with the basics, such as stopping the rush or covering receivers.
Purdue’s defenders are in the top third of the nation for getting into opponents’ backfields, but they are in the bottom ten for stopping the rush on the front end and getting interceptions on the back end.
This season, there hasn’t been a game where the Purdue defense has kept opponents from getting at least four touchdowns.
There is some terrific talent among Boiler defenders, led by sophomore wrecking ball safety Dillion Thieneman, who ranks among the nation’s tackle leaders with 50.
If Purdue succumbs to the temptation to bring too much pressure, it will open doors for Will Stein’s offense’s countless outlet options. It will also provide option opportunities for quarterback Dillon Gabriel and gaps for running back Jordan James.
I view Purdue as somewhat of an outlier in college football. Just when I think the Boilermakers will lose, they win. When I think they should fire their defensive coordinator, they fire the offensive one instead.
Put that with them going from an offense that went ten quarters with just one touchdown to one that produced 46 points after halftime last week, and you can see why this Boiler bunch cannot be taken lightly.
Since last year, quarterback Hudson Card, the former starting quarterback at Texas, has led the offense. He is currently on the Purdue injury list but might return in time to play the Ducks.
But will he start?
Last week, freshman Ryan Browne filled in during Card’s injury and performed so well that he received the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Week national award.
That raises another question. If the Purdue offense was struggling, and if Browne is that good, why didn’t coaches turn to him earlier?
Expect the Duck pressure guys to raise havoc on either quarterback because Oregon is in the top 20 when it comes to posting sacks, while Purdue’s offensive line is ranked 97th in quarterback protection. Oregon edge rusher Jordan Burch is not likely to play, but the Duck blitz should still be a problem for Purdue.
PU has a terrific running back in junior Deven Mockobee, who is in the nation’s top 25 for yards per carry. He should succeed against Oregon’s rush defense, which is ranked a little above average in yards per carry and well below when it comes to getting tackles for loss.
The Boilermakers rank 105th in the nation for committing penalties, which have been costly. Purdue gives away 77 penalty yards per game.
Although Oregon excels in most facets of the game, Purdue’s 46-point second-half outburst against Illinois and Browne’s emergence as quarterback make it clear that the Boilermakers are a capricious and dangerous group.
National expert analysts set the spread for this game at 28 points.
My savvygameline.com prediction system projects Oregon will win 47-7.
The Savvy system is 357 – 101 in predicting winners, which is the same 78% accuracy as betting lines. Savvy is six games better at predicting point spreads and has a spectacular 77 games in setting total game points.
To see all 58 of our FBS predictions this week, please visit savvygameline.com.
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