All good things must come to an end. On January 10th of this year, the Seattle Seahawks officially moved on from franchise mainstay Pete Carroll, concluding a 14-year run for the legendary head coach. A run that included ten playoff appearances, 137 regular season wins, and most importantly, back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014, with a resounding win against the Broncos in ‘13. Whenever someone has been the strategic figurehead for a franchise for that long, so much goes into the decision to declare a new direction. One could point to so many other such figures who were given an even shorter leash, as even in “down years” for the Seahawks recently, Carroll managed to wring a couple of playoff runs late in his tenure. However, when zooming out on the situation, the dominant force Seattle was known as in the early and mid-2010s had faded, especially with the departure of QB Russell Wilson two seasons ago and the dismantling of the Legion of Boom defensive group at the end of the last decade. There was new blood needed for the premier football franchise of the Pacific Northwest, and ownership decided to make Carroll the first domino to fall in their rebuild.
Before diving into the Seahawks’ prospects for the 2024 season and whether their current over/under is accurate (7.5 wins, according to DraftKings), it is important to look back at last season and what brought them to this moment. In 2023, the Seahawks went 9-8, the exact same record as the previous season, although unlike 2022, that record did not get them into the postseason. They finished 3rd in the NFC West, remaining on the edges of the playoff race till the end. That being said, even though they were a win or two away from another postseason berth, the season as a whole was a middling one.
According to Statmuse, they finished 17th in PPG, 25th in opponent PPG, 16th in passing yards per game, and 28th in rushing yards per game. Geno Smith, who won Comeback Player of the Year in 2022, took a sizable step back production-wise, and with him, the offense obviously struggled. A defense that was already bottom third the year before didn’t improve and relied on aging players at key positions such as safety and outside linebacker. All in all, a change was needed, and looking forward, there are a few key areas where Seahawks fans should focus when projecting a successful season ahead.
Coaching
In replacing Carroll, the team went to the opposite end of the spectrum and hired the youngest coach in the NFL, Baltimore’s 37-year-old Mike Macdonald. However, in terms of coaching talent, Macdonald fits the profile. He began as a coaching intern for the Ravens in 2014 and moved upwards in the organization until becoming linebackers coach from 2018-2020. After spending one year as the defensive coordinator for Michigan in 2021, he returned to the Ravens and took over DC responsibilities for them in 2022 and 2023. Last season, Baltimore was dominant defensively, finishing 1st in opponent PPG, 1st in opponent total points, and 6th in opponent total yards (according to Statmuse). He will have a tall task turning around a defense that has been so poor lately and does not have the star talent or depth of the unit he had in Baltimore. However, the Seahawks chose Macdonald over more experienced or well-known names for a reason, and his age and evident desire for big-stage success should be seen as a positive.
On the offensive side, Seattle also saw reason to switch up their coaching talent and replaced 2021-23 OC Shane Waldron with incumbent Ryan Grubb. Grubb spent his last two seasons as the offensive coordinator for the Washington Huskies and decided to move on to the NFL after not being selected as the next UW coach during their hiring process this winter. During the 2022 season, his first with the team, the Huskies explosively elevated themselves offensively, leading the country in passing yards per game, first downs per game, and third-yard percentage and second in total offense (per Wikipedia). While some of that can obviously be attributed to the talent and domination of QB Michael Penix Jr. and the influence of head coach Kalen Deboer (who joined with Grubb), leading such a productive offensive group in back-to-back years is no fluke. The question remains if he can bring that level of excellence to the pro league, but the resume is hard to argue with.
Who’s In and Who’s Out on Defense
The most significant move the Seahawks made to solidify their 2024 unit was one of retention, re-signing DT Leonard Williams to a three-year deal after acquiring him from the Giants last October. Their other significant addition in that area was adding veteran DT Johnathan Hankins from Dallas to help bolster the line alongside Williams. On the linebacker front, the Seahawks’ front office signed a pair of free agents, Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson. In doing so, they replace franchise legend Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks and lean towards youth and speed while losing experience and overall talent. The safety position has also undergone significant changes, with Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams signing elsewhere. Rayshawn Jenkins and K’Von Wallace were both brought in on cheaper, short-term deals to compete for the second starting spot opposite Julian Love. In the upcoming draft, shoring up the edges of that defensive line, as well as adding depth to the middle, will be a focus, and either way, Mike Macdonald will have an interesting but slightly ragtag group to start the season.
Consistency on Offense
In stark contrast with the shifting talent on defense, the Seahawks offense in 2024 will see a vast majority of talent returning. After a failed stint in a starting role in Washington, Sam Howell joined on a one-year deal to compete for the quarterback position with veteran Geno Smith. While Howell has had flashes and possesses the age advantage, Smith solidly projects as the 2024 starter and will look to improve upon a good, if not great, 2023 campaign. Over the last two years as a starter, Smith has established himself as a fluid, accurate, and unselfish option at QB but needs to maintain consistency as well as elevate what was (at least last year) a middling offensive unit. He will have a bevy of options to throw to, with star D.K. Metcalf signed for the next two seasons, as well as veteran Tyler Lockett, who restructured his contract this offseason to remain with the team for 2024 and 2025. Outside of their expected high production, this year will be an opportunity for 2023 first-round pick Jaxon-Smith Njigba to capitalize on a pretty excellent first year and possibly establish himself as the #2 wide receiver on the team. Last but certainly not least is young running back Kenneth Walker III, who instantly became a cornerstone of the offense in his 2022 rookie year and continued to show his explosive arsenal last year. Being that reliable and often dominant force in the run game for OC Grubb to rely on will be paramount to Seattle’s offensive success this year, and Walker has certainly shown the talent for it.
Verdict
Currently, DraftKings lists the Seahawks 2024 projected win total at 7.5, and I would strongly consider taking the Over on that number. While there are a whole lot of new faces on both the coaching and player side, much of it consists of an infusion of youth and innovation on offense and defense, and I trust this franchise’s ability to remain competitive through these changes. They managed to win nine games with a very poor defense and inconsistency on the other side of the ball, and I think they can at least meet that number this upcoming season. Seattle might not have a Super Bowl contender quite yet, but a scrappy playoff hopeful seems in the cards.
