Oregon State’s Wake-Up Call – Can The Beavers Avoid A Fresno State Letdown?

I feel ya, Beaver fans. I hear your sad trombones.

So much hope for the Cal game last week. Oregon State just wasn’t ready. Same as the previous year. The score was better this year, but the result was the same.

Another loss.

More frustration.

How can we tell the Beavers weren’t adequately prepared?

Well, it’s likely your team wasn’t ready if your opponent’s starting quarterback is a pure freshman and starts the game completing ALL of his first nine passes, and two of them go for touchdowns.

It’s evident your team wasn’t ready when “skill” players lose the handle on the football once every 14 snaps.

You might have a schematic issue if your top running back can’t get three yards per carry, yet you only give the ball to other backs just three times all game.

Is it time to worry about a Beaver downfall?

I’ve never been the worrying sort, but, from a philosophical standpoint, worrying might be the solution because most of the things I worry about never actually happen.

Fresno State (1-1) comes to town this week, and Oregon State is in a must-win situation because they will be underdogs to all of their next four opponents (@ #20 Texas Tech, @ #3 Oregon, #68 Houston, and @ #65 Appalachian State).

That means the next best chance for an Oregon State win could come on October 11th when Wake Forest comes to town. Wake was asleep last week and barely escaped with a 10-9 victory over Kennesaw State. Former Washington State coach Jake Dickert leads the Deacons.

To win this week against Fresno State, the Beavers must get better at nearly everything. The offense must be able to run the football. Getting just 2.4 yards per carry is not acceptable. As I said in the preseason and again last week before the Cal game, if OSU cannot present a rush attack, the offense will not score, and Malik Murphy will be mercilessly pressured.

There is ample opportunity for that run game to succeed this week because Fresno State has one of the more porous rush defenses in America.

On the defensive side, the Beavers MUST get to the quarterback. Without pressure on the passer, opponents will go after OSU’s talented but inexperienced secondary. They’ll also find the kind of success that Cal did last week.

And, the secondary has to find a way to get interceptions. It failed to get any last week after seldom getting any all of last season.

Fresno State has E.J. Warner at quarterback. He is the son of Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, but without the glitzy stats. In fact, before coming to FSU, E. J. Warner’s career at two prior schools was laden with interceptions. I said in July that I expected that to continue, and it has.

After two games, Warner is throwing interceptions at FOUR TIMES the national average, and he has yet to throw a touchdown. He is also not a long-ball thrower, and that adds immense opportunities for the Beavers if coaches can just come up with effective schemes.

If the Beaver secondary cannot come up with interceptions this week, then it might be time to wonder if they will at all this season. 

Oddsmakers favor Oregon State by 3.5.

My savvygameline.com sees the Bulldogs coming out on top, 30-24.

Last week, my system was 75-15 in predicting game winners. There are 83 FBS games this week, and Savvy Index has predictions for all of them and commentary for most of them.