The college football landscape shifted dramatically on October 12, 2024, when No. 3 Oregon defeated No. 2 Ohio State 32-31 in a thriller at Autzen Stadium. This victory not only solidified Oregon as a top contender but also fueled the conversation about their playoff seeding and potential to receive a first-round bye. Here is who I think will receive a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
1. Oregon
Oregon’s win was pivotal, handing head coach Dan Lanning his first victory over a top-5 opponent after two previous attempts. QB Dillon Gabriel led the offense with 341 passing yards and two touchdowns, while RB Jordan James added 115 rushing yards and a score. With their toughest remaining challenge being Michigan—who already has two losses—the Ducks have a favorable path toward securing the Big Ten title and the No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. Texas may pose the biggest threat to Oregon’s claim for the top seed, but the Longhorns’ schedule is more daunting, with matchups against Georgia, Texas A&M, and the SEC championship ahead. If Oregon runs the table, they could very well earn a first-round bye as the Big Ten champions and potentially the top overall seed.
2. Georgia
Despite losing to Alabama, Georgia remains a strong contender in the SEC. If they defeat Texas this weekend, their path to the SEC championship game becomes clearer. Quin Ewers has been up and down so far this season, and I expect Georgia to give him trouble this weekend. Georgia would still have to beat Tennessee and Ole Miss, but QB Carson Beck has been improving, and head coach Kirby Smart’s experience could give the Bulldogs the edge to win out and secure a playoff bye. Beck, Alabama, who beat Georgia earlier in the season in a thrilling primetime game, would most likely be Georgia’s opponent in the SEC championship game if both teams were to win out. It took a lot for Alabama to beat Georgia, and asking them to do it again would be very tough.
3. Clemson
After a rough season opener against Georgia, Clemson has bounced back, powered by Kade Klubnik’s consistent play at quarterback. Clemson only has one ranked opponent left on their schedule, Pitt. As long as they win that game, they should be able to win out, which would secure their spot in the ACC championship game. While Miami is currently leading the ACC, Clemson’s defense—ranked in the top 10 in interceptions—gives them an edge, particularly if they meet Miami in the ACC championship. Miami’s QB Cam Ward has struggled with turnovers throughout his career, and Clemson’s opportunistic defense could capitalize on that to win the conference.
4. Kansas State
Kansas State has navigated life without former QB Will Howard, who transferred to Ohio State and is now led by dual-threat QB Avery Johnson. While young, Johnson’s ability to make plays with his legs compensates for his inexperience in the passing game. Johnson can still throw the ball well and is getting better as the season progresses. In his last game against Colorado, Johnson threw for two touchdowns, including the game-winning touchdown, with less than 3 minutes remaining. Kansas State’s biggest challenger is Iowa State, which is currently undefeated and ranked ninth in the country. Kansas State will match up against them in their final regular season game. Winning against Iowa State would put Kansas State in a prime position to secure the Big 12 championship and claim a top-four spot in the playoff.
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