Oregon State 28, California 24
It may seem odd to some football fans that bookmakers are favoring Oregon State to beat Cal this week, even though they lost to the Bears last year by a whopping 44-7.
What’s changed?
Try this: In the space of just 48 hours last April, all five of Cal’s top running backs hit the portal. Five of the Bears’ top seven receivers also left, along with two hefty starting linemen. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza was spectacular last year in Berkeley, and I’m sure he will be just as spectacular now that he is in Indiana.
But why all of the departures, and why did the majority of them come about AFTER Spring ball?
The answers appear to be the hiring of Bryan Harsin as California’s new offensive coordinator. Harsin has a reputation for being somewhat inflexible and perhaps too much of a contrast to past coordinators.
According to Sportsnaut.com and CBS Sports, “The first-year Bears’ offensive coordinator (Harsin) reportedly ‘hasn’t exactly been a culture fit’ with the locker room and some sources close to the Golden Bears said that Harsin’s presence has ‘accelerated the team’s unraveling’ this spring.”
Cal’s offense ranked 74th (about average) in terms of gaining yardage last year. With a roster full of new faces, all the skill positions depleted, and disunity in the offensive ranks, it seems inevitable that the Bear offense will be below average in terms of yards and points.
Cal must also rebuild on the other side of the ball. They were magnificent in bringing pressure, but with new faces all over the defense, opposing quarterbacks can expect to have an easier time of it.
For Oregon State fans, those changes bring good news. The Beavers boast a wealth of skilled players, but their offensive line is questionable. Cal will need time to develop pressure, and that should help the Beaver OL, at least in the first game of the season.
The bad news for Oregon State is that, even with a better offensive line last season, the Beavers were down 31-0 at halftime and had managed just 82 yards. In other words, they showed up unprepared.
That is unlikely to be the case this week, as the Oregon State offense has found a certified winner at quarterback. Maalik Murphy, who had once considered an offer from Oregon, has transferred to Oregon State from Duke after previously transferring to Duke from Texas. He didn’t want to be a Duck, but then he became a Duke. Now he’s a Beaver. Somehow, it all makes sense.
Known as a strong leader with a magnificently strong arm, Murphy has taken over the starting role at Oregon State. If the OL can get the running backs going, Murphy will thrive in Corvallis.
The offensive line lost two starters and its line coach to the NFL. New line coach Mike Cavenaugh is returning to Corvallis after holding the same position from 2005 to 2014. He is an excellent hire by head coach Trent Bray, but the work ahead of him is monumental. Cavanaugh admitted as much when he called it a “work in progress”.
Cal is going to start former Oregon commit and true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at quarterback. Although he is a dynamic four-star talent, the lack of skilled players around him will cast statistical shadows over his actual talent. So will his inexperience.
Oregon State’s defense struggled to pressure quarterbacks last season, but that is precisely what the Beavers need to do against Sagapolutele.
Oregon State must also devise successful plays in critical situations. Last year against Cal, the Beavers converted only one of 12 third-down attempts.
Both of these outfits have a lot to prove, and that needs to happen now, because time waits for no one — unless, of course, you’re Chuck Norris.
My savvygameline.com doesn’t see Oregon State as a solid favorite. Still, it awards a four-point edge to the Beavers because they have greater unity, better skill players on offense, suffered much less attrition in the offseason, and they are playing at home.
#7 Oregon 45, #3 (FCS) Montana State 14
FanDuel Sportsbook shows Oregon as a 27.5-point favorite over Montana State.
My savvygameline.com system says Oregon will win by 31.
The Bobcats have been incredible winners in the FCS and nearly always a threat to win it all. In the past four seasons, they’ve made four playoff appearances, advanced to the semifinals three times, and played in the national championship game twice.
Although Montana State is coming to Eugene with the intent to upset the Ducks, they actually have more at stake next week when they play FCS title contender South Dakota State, which is 60-8 since 2020.
Last year, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott won the Walter Payton Award as the top player in FCS, but he has departed for the NFL.
In his place will be former Stanford and Bowling Green quarterback Justin Lamson. Last season, Lamson played in all 12 games for Stanford, although he only started one. Nonetheless, he set the single-season school record for rushing touchdowns (8).
Passing was a different story, however, as Lamson completed just 51% of his passes with an interception rate that was twice the national average. All of that despite throwing for a mere 6.4 yards per attempt.
He will get help from a Montana State offensive line and running backs that appear ready to present an effective ground attack. Expect the Bobcats to stay grounded even if they fall behind. MSU is a ground team, and getting in rush reps against Oregon bolsters their chances against SDSU next week.
Although Montana State is a powerhouse in the FCS, Lamson is not a threat through the air, which will enable Oregon to focus on stopping the MSU ground game.
To me, that is the most anticipated aspect of this game: Can Oregon prove it is elite in stopping the run, or will this be another year of unacceptable lapses, allowing over four yards per carry to opponents?
My prediction system indicates a multiple-possession lead at halftime, with some experimentation likely in the second half.
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