Washington fans enjoyed the heck out of last season’s run to the national championship game. They also knew that much of their talent was leaving for the NFL and that things might change quickly.
What many didn’t anticipate was that head coach Kalen DeBoer and his top two assistants would also leave. Who can blame DeBoer, though? When Alabama comes a-callin’, y’all better be answering.
DeBoer was greeted by a myriad of happy faces in Tuscaloosa. One woman said, “We all already love ya’ like a brother!” Usually, that’s a good thing. In Alabama, it might mean other things.
But we won’t go there right now.
With 20 starters and all three top coaches gone, Husky fans are left to wonder if the dream of last year’s national championship game will become despondency of a collapse this year.
Football experts seem to think so as one prominent Big Ten poll listed the Huskies 9th-best in the conference while another listed them 10th. Athlon ranked UW 42nd nationally.
A few other analysts still believe UW is worthy of a preseason top-10 ranking all-the-while predicting the Huskies will win no more than seven games. I’m not sure how that works but it is a reflection of the diversity of opinions regarding this year’s UW team.
If you’ve become a hand-wringing Husky aficionado whose head has resorted to blaring Celine Dion music just to distract from the chaos, please don’t do anything impulsive. Instead, check your drier. It might just be your cat.
Besides, my savvygameline.com ranks the purple ‘dawgs just outside of the top-25 and better than 9th in the Big Ten.
That Savvy Index preseason projection is founded a great deal on the hiring of Jedd Fisch (Arizona) as the UW head coach. As I mentioned last month, my system gives Washington an “A” grade for that hiring and his subsequent hiring of Brennan Carroll (Seattle Seahawks; Arizona) to be his offensive coordinator and Steve Belichick (13 years New England Patriots) as his defensive coordinator.
That is a strong group of leaders with proven effectiveness over many years.
Leaving Arizona was a tough decision for Fisch because the offer from UW came just weeks after he had promised Wildcat fans he was in Tucson for the long haul.
Once he left, fans reacted. One Arizona fan huffed, “I thought you were an eagle. Now I see you’re just a weasel!”
I know we all want to be thought of as eagles, but let’s be real. Fisch is in the land of Boeing Aircraft, so although eagles soar high, weasels don’t get sucked into jet engines.
Like any coach worthy of merit, Fisch wants to succeed at the highest levels. Arizona was good last year, but it didn’t have the roster or appeal of the University of Washington. UW put Fisch into a program that won 75% of its games against teams ranked at the end of the season, whereas Arizona won 0%.
As Mae West once said, “I generally avoid temptation. Unless I can’t resist it.”
Fans will miss Michael Penix Jr. behind center, but not for long.
Coming in from Mississippi State is quarterback Will Rogers, who is second all-time in Southeastern Conference passing yardage. Yes, he is that good.
I have two concerns when it comes to Rogers:
- How will he do behind an offensive line that was average last year and mostly gone this year? Keep in mind that Howard is not a runner. The magical feet that saved Penix on many occasions just won’t be there for Rogers.
- Can he stay healthy? Eight games into last season, Rogers injured his non-throwing shoulder and didn’t return to the lineup for the remainder of the season. If the UW OL goes AWOL, he won’t last the season.
The offensive line must be rebuilt this year, and with so many new faces, it will be critical for Coach Fisch to get the group tight, unified, and effective and do it quickly. If it cannot protect the QB and the passing attack falters, UW is going to have a hard time in 2024.
An injury at quarterback would further compound offensive issues because the current Washington depth chart shows pure freshman Arizona transfer Demond Williams Jr. as the backup. Williams was a four-star recruit and a terrific scrambler, but at 5’9″, he is not known as a long-ball passer.
That presents the new UW coaching staff with a dilemma: How do they build their team around a record-breaking passer who can’t run when the backup is a spectacular runner who isn’t a pocket passer?
Last year, UW was barely able to average three yards per rush.
That should improve to some extent, as Fisch brought another Arizona transfer with him to Seattle. Jonah Coleman averaged nearly eight yards per carry last year as a Wildcat. The Huskies will also welcome the return of junior ball-carrier Cameron Davis, who is back from last year’s season-long injury.
With three terrific receivers off to the NFL, Washington will rely on top Cal Bear transfer receiver Jeremiah Hunter as the primary target for Howard. The Howard-to-Hunter combination will be big news this year because, frankly, Washington isn’t likely to present a reliable menace from its ground game.
The offense must be effective because the defense appears to be a problem.
Despite making it to the national title game, the Husky defense ranked 87th for yards allowed per play, 107th in yards yielded per rush, and 114th for number of first downs allowed per game.
There is hope that two transfers will beef up the defense.
Already making an impression on the back end is Arizona transfer cornerback Ephesians Prysock, who had 61 tackles, one interception, and several references in campus Bible studies.
Fisch was able to retain the recruitment of four-star freshman defensive tackle Sebastian Valdez who is 6’7″, 315-pounds, and rumored to have his own NIL for food.
The secondary was ranked second in the nation for intercepting the football, but two-thirds of those interceptions are gone from last year’s team. That secondary needs to be rebuilt quickly because the UW defensive front was one of the worst in college football when it came to bringing pressure.
With fewer new faces on the DL and in the secondary, it is unlikely Washington will repeat as a top-10 interception program.
My savvygameline.com prediction system currently sees UW with eight wins —over Weber State, Eastern Michigan, Washington State, Northwestern [high upset alert], Rutgers [high upset alert], Indiana, USC, and UCLA.
It projects losses to Michigan, Iowa, Penn State, and Oregon.
The Huskies are strong bowl candidates, and picking off an upset win will likely land the ‘dawgs in the top 20.
