The 2024-25 NBA season has been an absolute fever dream.
If you’d told a friend last summer that Luka Dončić would be a Los Angeles Laker, or that Mike Brown, Taylor Jenkins, and Michael Malone would lose their jobs, and that oddsmakers would seriously contemplate Nikola Jokić’s next team…your friend would ask if Christopher Nolan wrote the script.
But here we are. The Luka blockbuster, which felt like it was directed by M. Night Shams Charania, was real. And it constantly, unrelentingly reminds us that no one in “THIS LEAGUE” is safe. Because if Dallas can channel Jordan Peele and tell a generational talent, “Nope … Get Out,” what’s to stop a Denver team, suddenly in turmoil, from doing the same?
Or, more realistically, who’s to say Joker won’t orchestrate his own twist, realize Denver’s title hopes are fantasy, and force the championship organization’s hand before it ever gets the chance?
Betting Odds: Nikola Jokić’s Next NBA Team
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.ag
At +1200 odds (12/1), the Portland Trail Blazers have entered the chat.
Portland is tied with Cleveland for seventh-best odds to land Jokić, behind only Charlotte (10/1), Utah (8/1), Orlando (7/1), New Orleans (6/1), Oklahoma City (5/1), and Houston (4/1).
That said, something about the Trail Blazers’ prominent placement feels like a glitch in the matrix.
Portland is a franchise that hasn’t traded for a superstar…ever? Scottie Pippen’s Rip City Era was during the twilight of his career. It’s the same story for Shawn Kemp and the Carmelo Anthony free-agency pickup. (Although note that the vibes could not have been more different between Kemp and Melo…very, very different.)
This isn’t to say that Portland has never snagged established, proven talent. Brian Grant and Andre Miller were very good, just not elite additions. And Rasheed Wallace and Buck Williams are the only All-Time Trail Blazers inside the Top 15 to join outside the draft. But Sheed arrived with only a rookie season under his belt and much to prove.
Perhaps, though, there’s more than just “ancient” history at play. Recently extended GM, Joe Cronin, has spent the more “recent” history building a war chest of assets in his quest to draft or trade for a post-Damian Lillard star. Could the Blazers use that, and get in on the Jokić conversation? Are Portland’s good-not-great odds worth dissecting?
Luckily for you, we’re examining it no matter. So, let’s give everything a fair look.
Why Would Denver Ever Trade Nikola Jokić?
The likeliest scenario starts with Jokić asking out, because it’s hard to imagine Denver voluntarily smashing the reset button, casting off the world’s best player if he wants to stay.
Then again … the NBA moves like wildfire, and there’s still smoke in The Mile High City, signifying the potential for future flames.
Is It Really All About Drama?
Maybe more than anything, the Nuggets no longer resemble the 2023 title team, which was constructed with balance in mind.
It had cutters, defenders, shooters, and spacing around its wickedly talented witch of a center. But as we know, no good deed goes unpunished. Coach Malone’s firing was the first domino, and GM Calvin Booth’s release was a rapid second, Ruby Slipper shoe to drop, but there’s more context than any on- or off-court disagreements the two had.
Letting players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown walk has proved painful, and the reliability of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. has grown, if unfairly, since.
What Would a Jokić Trade Even Look Like?
If Jokić hits the market, it sparks the biggest trade sweepstakes in NBA history, with respect to Kevin Durant, James Harden, so many other stars, and whatever package the Lakers sent Dallas for the next face of the purple and gold.
A 10 percent salary cap increase in 2025-26 also means nearly every team makes an obligatory call on the 30-year-old, three-time MVP.
It also means the Nuggets would demand a king’s ransom, and they’d settle for no less than a Joker’s Jackpot.
Portland, of course, would be one of the franchises calling. Unlike media darlings like the Lakers or Knicks, the Blazers offer a quieter setting—and yes, many nearby horse ranches.
Off the court, Portland isn’t flashy, and that’d be a feature, not a bug, for someone like Jokić. Just think about it: Basketball, horses, and quiet nights sipping wine in the Willamette Valley? That sounds like his brand.
More importantly, the Trail Blazers are building something. Jokić, even under contract, would have leverage in where he lands. And if the Blazers can combine building the right trade package with keeping the right pieces in place, that’s when this all becomes real.
What Could Portland Actually Offer?
Portland has stockpiled some serious pieces that collectively exceeded expectations this season.
To be frank, most of the current core should grow in value both on the court and on the trade block moving forward.
Consider the following: Scoot Henderson just took a leap and can still be a franchise point guard. Shaedon Sharpe has evolving playmaking and scoring abilities to complement his athleticism. Anfernee Simons is a proven scorer and shooter at 25.
Furthermore, Toumani Camara could someday be the best defender in the league, period. Deni Avdija is proving he has both upside and one of the most team-friendly contracts in existence. Deandre Ayton can be a serviceable big or a trade filler. And don’t forget, there are multiple first-round picks at Cronin’s disposal, which, when combined with young players, creates a deep, compelling asset pool from which to build a competitive trade package.
But How Likely Is It Really?
At +1200 odds, Portland has an imputed probability of 7.7 percent to be Jokić’s next NBA team.
That’s not far-fetched. It’s about the same odds as rolling a “1” on a 13-sided die. Or, it’s roughly equivalent to Donovan Clingan’s UConn buddy, Stephon Castle, hitting two three-pointers in a row during an NBA game as a 28 percent shooter.
Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? Absolutely not.
A lot has to fall into place here. Jokić asking out is probably key. Denver not being stubborn is crucial. And Portland going all in is a must.
That last part is the most important. Because as nice as it is to not see the Lakers, Heat and Warriors near the top of the list, those teams are very good at getting themselves involved when the time comes for a star to hit the trade block.
More than anything, these are the times we turn to higher powers for inspiration and understanding. In this case, that higher power is Kevin Garnett.
This past year has seen a series of escalating NBA plot twists, but as the great KG once told us—no…predicted!—“Anything is possible!”
Jokić to Portland? It seems pretty unlikely. But in the words of Serbian KG: “Све је могуће.”
Translation? You guessed it. “Anything is possible.”
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