Wise is the bettor who consults Nick’s No-Nonsense Betting Tips before logging on to his sportsbook.
I may not always be perfect, but if you’ve followed my advice in the past, you’re money ahead.
Every Friday in this space throughout the 2024 college football season, I have given you my straight-up picks for games involving SuperWest teams.
For those who don’t know, that includes all the former Pac-12 teams, the Mountain West, plus BYU.
On rare occasions, when I blow a pick (or two), I evaluate my mistakes the following week, analyzing where I may have gone wrong.
Last week, I went 8-0.
That makes me a solid 96-42 on the season, good for 70 percent.
Now it’s on to the Conference Championship Games.
As always, my selections include incredibly accurate game scores and just enough commentary to keep me from eating too much popcorn in the South Shore District of Seattle.
My bowl is almost empty, so let’s get on with the picks!
———
No. 20 UNLV at No. 10 Boise State
Friday, December 6
5:00 pm PT, FOX
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
How big is this game?
Boise State has long been considered a G5 power, but UNLV has risen so fast that it’s challenging to find a college football fan in America who isn’t aware of the Rebels.
Whoever wins will be headed to the College Football Playoff, and if it’s Boise State, a First Round bye is in the offing.
The Broncos enter this contest with one loss this season against No. 1 Oregon. They’ve looked ugly at times down the stretch but played better in their last game against Oregon State.
UNLV enters this contest with two losses on the season. One of them came in a close and competitive game against the Broncos.
The key to this matchup is whether BSU’s offensive line can create running lanes for Ashton Jeanty. He was held to less-than-average numbers, rushing for 128 yards, though it took 33 carries.
Maddux Madsen took advantage of a defense that sold out on the run, but UNLV’s secondary should be ready for part two.
The Rebels rank 109th in passing yards allowed per game, but that stat feels misleading because their opponents were usually playing from behind.
Jalen Catalon was selected as a First Team All-Mountain West safety, and Jackson Woodard is a beast at linebacker.
This game should be close, but nothing will ruin Boise State’s shot at the CFP.
Broncos spear the Rebels in an old-fashioned dogfight.
Boise State 31, UNLV 27
———
No. 16 Iowa State vs No. 15 Arizona State
Saturday, December 7
9:00 am PT, ABC
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
This matchup feels like the Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic fight on the weekend of Mike Tyson-Jake Paul.
In football language, it could be the best game of the weekend, though Oregon-Penn State will get more attention.
Arizona State is riding a five-game winning streak, and they’ve been en fuego during the second half of the season, including a rout of rival Arizona in their last outing.
On the other hashmark, Iowa State snuck into the title game because of the late-season downfall of both BYU and Colorado, although “downfall” is probably a little strong.
The Cyclones are led by quarterback Rocco Becht, who has thrown for 3,021 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Becht is complemented by wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, each of whom has amassed over 1,000 yards receiving.
The Sun Devils have a solid offense, but it won’t be the same with Jordyn Tyson, who is out for the rest of the season with an injury. Tyson tended to draw double coverage, so Iowa State can focus more on stopping Cam Skattebo.
Good luck with that.
Sam Leavitt, who has thrown for 2,444 yards, 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions, will need to rely on the other Sun Devil receivers. The QB’s legs may prove even more important, however, as he looks to add to his 350 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Skattebo gets all the attention because he’s a gangster, and gangsters will do anything to get a dub.
ASU goes to the College Football Playoff.
Arizona State 35, Iowa State 24
———
No. 17 Clemson vs No. 8 SMU
Saturday, December 7
5:00 pm PT, ABC
Bank of American Stadium, Charlotte, NC
I feel like this is the weirdest matchup of the weekend.
SMU enters the contest boasting an 11-1 record in their first year in the ACC. But the Mustangs are a little confusing because while they’ve beaten some reputable teams, they haven’t topped any of the elites.
Clemson brings a 9-3 record to the game after losing to South Carolina in the finale.
The key to this matchup should be whether SMU is ready for the moment. The ‘Stangs are the slight favorite, but Clemson historically has faced more powerhouse opponents in big games.
The Tigers need to stop the combination of Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith. SMU is undefeated since Jennings took over as quarterback, and he’s been thrown for 2,746 yards, 19 touchdowns, and seven interceptions this season.
Jennings is complimented by Smith, a dual threat at the halfback position, who has run for 1,157 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 243 yards and three touchdowns as a wideout.
But Clemson boasts a dominant duo in their own right, Cade Klubnik and Phil Mafah. Klubnik has thrown for over 3,000 yards, while Mafah has rushed for over 1,000.
Clemson also has a solid defense, only allowing 22 points per outing.
The Mustangs might have the better team, but they fell into a tough situation facing the Tigers after losing to their rivals.
Clemson does it for The Palmetto State.
Clemson 42, SMU 20
———
No. 3 Penn State vs No. 1 Oregon
Saturday, December 7
5:00 pm PT, CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
This is the matchup no one thought would happen. Few, if any, expected Michigan to upset Ohio State in “The Game” last Saturday.
The Ducks and the Nittany Lions each seek more respect on the national landscape, and a win here would help lift either squad into the college football elite.
The key to this contest should be whether Penn State can create explosive plays on offense. Penn State’s defense should be able to slow down Oregon a bit, but their offense will likely need to score 30-plus points to keep pace with the Ducks.
The Nittany Lions’ receivers must do a little more to do that.
Tyler Warren is a dominant tight end, but he’ll need support against a talented Oregon secondary. Wideouts Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans must play above their NIL grade.
Oregon needs to limit Penn State’s 25th-ranked running unit, and the Ducks appear equipped to do so with the 22nd-best rushing defense.
It would also be wise to get Jordan James the ball frequently, as Penn State’s pass defense ranks seventh nationally.
Dillon Gabrial, the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, will look to exploit it with one of the nation’s top receiver duos in Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart and a stellar pair of tight ends in Terrance Ferguson and Kenyon Sadiq.
Oregon is the slightly better squad, and they remain the Ones.
Oregon 28, Penn State 21
Be the first to comment