The Portland Trail Blazers begin the 56th chapter in franchise history this Wednesday, and they hope that this new season brings title aspirations for a team that has not been to the Finals since 1992 and has not won a championship since 1977.
It’s been 34 years since they were one of the last two teams standing, and 49 years since they won their only title in team history.
Their most recent season saw them win 36 games after ESPN projected them to win just 33, so the Blazers head into this season having exceeded expectations, even if it was a small win. They were coming off a 21-win season in 2024, so a 15-game swing is a big deal, even if it didn’t bring them to a winning record or a spot in the playoffs.
Portland has recorded four consecutive losing seasons going back to 2021, and hopes to break the losing streak this year. 2021 is also the last time they appeared in the playoffs. You would have to go back to 2013 and Damian Lillard’s rookie season for the last time they missed the playoffs before 2021, so getting some time in the postseason this year would be a welcome relief for a lot of concerned fans.
The Blazers have failed to advance to the playoffs in five consecutive seasons just twice in their history, from 1971-1976 and 2004-2008. Both times produced rapid results the following season, so it’s possible that letting their ultimate goal slip away this year will be more fate than failure, but either way, it would sting. But you never know, they say the third time is the charm for a reason, even if that reason is often not apparent.
ESPN has them projected to win fewer games this season at 35 games (well, 35.8, but what do you do with .8?) After being given a 2.7% chance to make the playoffs last year, Portland is not being given much of a chance again this year. However, ESPN ran a simulation of the upcoming season, which put them at 43 wins, and they were the $8 seed in the playoffs after defeating Minnesota in the play-in tournament for the right to face the #1-seeded OKC.
According to the simulation, this will be Portland’s first winning season and first playoff berth since 2021, and who knows how far they will climb after that. The simulation has Portland being swept in the first round, which does feel on brand given their most recent history in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean the computer is 100% accurate – especially if Lillard finds a way to make an appearance towards the end of the regular season, even if medical experts have him waiting until next season.
If I have learned anything in Lillard’s time in Portland, he’s as close to Han Solo as an NBA player has ever been. Never tell him the odds. If the team is close to making the playoffs towards the end of the season or has already clinched a spot, don’t be surprised at all if he is cleared and ready to go when the dance starts.
While some folks are skeptical of Portland’s late surge last season, I am not. Ok, I am, but not to the point of outright doubting them. I think the addition of Jrue Holiday will be a win on the court, as slowing the other team’s best backcourt player is more important than having a kid that can score in bunches but adds little else to the stat sheet.
Shaedon Sharpe was having a nice little season last year, and if he can take the next step and produce more highlight reel shots than disappearing acts, this team might not miss Anfernee Simons at all. We know Deni Avdija can score wherever he wants, and giving Donovan Clingan the full-time spot as the starting center with Deandre Ayton now in a Lakers uniform should give the team a better defensive anchor and a very talented support player on offense. Tourmani Camara and Jeremi Grant can put together decent scoring nights, and we might get some scoring out of Matisse Thybulle in addition to being a pitbull on the perimeter, something this team was sorely lacking during the majority of Lillard’s career in the Rose City.
And then when Lillard comes back, you now have at least 15-20 points ready to come off the bench and produce some dagger threes when you need them. When he’s fully healthy you can roll out a starting lineup of Lillard, Holiday, Deni, Camara, and Clingan with Sharpe and Thybulle coming off the bench and rookie center Yang Hansen possibly fighting for a 50/50 split with Clingan if he can quickly adjust to the NBA game and speed.
Then you still have Scoot Henderson, who will be back at some point. On paper, this team could win more than 43 games; they might even take a huge leap forward like they did in 2014, when they won 54 games and won their first playoff series in more than a decade. It’s not likely this team can create a 15-game surge last year and then create a surge this year that brings them more than 10 wins than the year prior, but we can’t count it out either.
If the team gets healthy and plays hard, there’s no reason this can’t be an excellent team that eclipses .500 and makes the playoffs.
Their first game comes against Minnesota, who is looking to rebound after a quick exit in the playoffs last year to eventual champs OKC. Still, Portland is looking to prove they are the new young and shiny team to beat, and will focus on announcing their presence to the league in their opener for their new owner.
This is a young and hungry team with new owners and playing at home with something to prove. I may not buy that they are a championship contender yet, but I definitely believe they have what it takes to win more than half their games and make the playoffs. I think this is the year they crawl out from under the rock they have been hiding under and start attacking the teams that have been beating them up for four years.
The offseason is over. Welcome back to basketball. Get ready to rise Rip City, just like a championship banner.
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