Three games are on tap this week across the nation in which both teams are nationally ranked. Texas visits Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Mississippi faces a showdown at LSU, and in our featured game, second-ranked Ohio State visits fifth-ranked Oregon in the top game of the year so far.
Both teams enter Autzen Stadium with 5-0 records after Ohio State overwhelmed Big Ten contender Iowa 35-7, and Oregon handed Michigan State its third straight loss, 31-10.
There are 51 FBS games scheduled this week, and I have predictions for all of them on savvygameline.com.
#2 Ohio State (5-0) at #5 Oregon (5-0)
Ohio State has been winning games by an average of more than 39 points.
The Buckeye offense is in the top ten of the nation for the most effective offensive line, rushing yards per carry, and fifth-best touchdown receiver, Jeremiah Smith.
Running back TreVeyon Henderson averages more than eight yards per carry, while his teammate Quinshon Judkins averages 7.8. Both are in the top 15 of the nation for yards per carry (ypc).
Defensively, Ohio State is number one in the nation for the fewest points allowed per game (6.8) and tops in the fewest yards allowed per game (202,4). Altogether, in five games, OSU has given up just four touchdowns.
The Buckeye defense is the strongest against the rush that Oregon has seen year-to-date (ranked 3rd), and it is also in the top ten for getting sacks and defending touchdowns through the air.
The only weakness in the OSU program has been its inability to defend the short- to mid-range passes of talented opposing quarterbacks.
Guess what Oregon likes to do.
Dillon Gabriel thrives in the mid-range. He leads the nation in completion percentage (77%) and has the seventh-ranked receiver in Tez Johnson, who already has 46 receptions and five touchdowns.
Oregon’s rush attack has been improving as its offensive line has developed, but Duck running backs will not find room against the Buckeyes, who only allow 2.3 yards per carry.
The Ducks won’t beat the strong Buckeye front going straight at it. However, passes to the flat, screen passes, tight end crosses, etc., are likely to succeed because Gabriel is a master of recognition-to-release. Johnson and Terrence Ferguson will be the best duo that Buckeye defensive backs have had to deal with.
Short- to mid-range passes pull safeties forward, and that might be enough to get Traeshon Holden, one of America’s elite long-ball receivers, open downfield.
Ohio State will counter with a good quarterback of its own. Kansas State transfer Will Howard completes better than 71% of his passes, and his touchdown-to-interception numbers are nearly identical to Gabriel’s. For those who think Howard can’t run, be aware that he posted 351 yards last year and has almost an identical yards-per-carry this year as Gabriel and a similar number of rushing touchdowns.
Howard will face the toughest pass-defense of the season when he comes to Eugene. The Ducks rank in the top 15 of the nation for stopping pass completions, touchdowns through the air, and getting to opposing quarterbacks.
Jabbar Mohammad of Oregon is fifth in the nation for defending passes, while Jordan Burch is one of the top-ranked and most feared blitzers in America. Oregon’s pass defense has pushed the Ducks into the top 10 for the fewest yards allowed per game (363.4).
Ohio State will likely reduce its reliance on the pass and opt instead to grind it out on the ground much of the game because Oregon’s rush defense isn’t strong (ranked 68th).
Both teams fumble. In fact, Ohio State fumbles more often than Oregon. The difference is that the Buckeyes have recovered more of their fumbles than the Ducks have theirs.
Oregon will have a decided advantage in punting. Ross James is one of the nation’s best punters, averaging 47.5 yards per punt, while Ohio State’s Nick McLarty averages 40.3.
The Bucks will grind the Ducks, but when the Ducks go to the air, they are hard to stop, even for a defense as good as Ohio State’s.
Betting lines show Ohio State as a four-point favorite.
My savvygameline.com prediction system projects Ohio State will win 30-24.
On the season, the Savvy system is 313-89 in predicting game winners. It is seven games better than betting lines in determining point spreads and a spectacular 57 games ahead in determining total game points.
