Gonzaga may have had the most impressive season-opening win in college basketball this year when it routed Baylor 101-63. The victory was part of a five-game win streak to start the season, generating significant hype and propelling the Bulldogs as high as No. 3 in the nation. However, Gonzaga has gone 15-7 since then and fallen out of the Associated Press Top 25 rankings.
Now, Gonzaga fans are questioning whether the program can extend its Sweet 16 streak to 10 straight appearances. While there is some cause for concern, a deeper look at analytics, the teams Gonzaga has lost to, and the circumstances of those losses provide a more optimistic outlook for March.
Despite its record and current ranking, Gonzaga remains one of the best teams in the country. According to KenPom, of the Bulldogs’ losses, all but two have come against teams ranked inside the top 50. A closer look at those games shows they were all highly competitive and winnable.
Gonzaga’s first loss came in an overtime upset against West Virginia at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas. Preseason tournaments often create unpredictable results due to unique playing environments. The Battle 4 Atlantis, for example, is held in a ballroom with a wood court laid over a carpeted floor surrounded by temporary bleachers. This type of playing environment is so different from a normal game environment that it often affects how the teams perform.
West Virginia has also defeated top-ranked teams such as Kansas and Iowa State. However, Gonzaga’s loss came against a fully healthy Mountaineers team, whereas Kansas and Iowa State played West Virginia without one of its best players, Tucker DeVries.
Against Kentucky, Gonzaga led by as many as 18 points before collapsing late. It is unlikely the Bulldogs will squander another lead of that magnitude this season.
In another tough defeat, Gonzaga traveled across the country to play UConn at Madison Square Garden, essentially a home game for the Huskies. UConn was also coming off a disappointing performance at the Maui Invitational, making it a desperation game for the defending national champions.
Gonzaga’s demanding non-conference schedule ended with a loss to UCLA. This game was played in LA, and one of Gonzaga’s top scorers, Khalif Battle, exited the game in the first half due to injury.
Just a few key plays decided all of these games. According to KenPom’s “luck rating,” which measures how fortunate a team has been throughout a season, Gonzaga ranks among the bottom 20 teams in the nation. That statistic aligns with what has transpired on the court, as multiple breaks have gone against the Bulldogs. Additionally, opponents have shot an unusually high percentage from 3-point range against Gonzaga this season.
The Bulldogs still have three Quad 1 games left on their schedule, with the potential for a fourth if they face Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference tournament. Regardless of what happens, Gonzaga fans should not panic. According to key analytics, this is still one of the nation’s top teams, and luck tends to even out throughout the season.
All five of Gonzaga’s starters are seniors with NCAA Tournament experience, and Ryan Nembhard is one of the best point guards in the country. Veteran leadership, elite coaching, and a top-tier point guard are all ingredients for success in March—regardless of seeding.
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