After a couple of rough seasons in 2020 and 2021, where Penn State managed a mediocre 11-11 record, the Nittany Lions have shown a remarkable resurgence. With impressive 11-2 and 10-3 seasons, capped by appearances in New Year’s Six bowl games, there’s renewed optimism in Happy Valley.
Despite bringing back key starters and securing promising transfers, Penn State seems to be flying under the radar. According to FanDuel’s NCAAF betting odds, the Nittany Lions have the third-shortest odds to clinch the Big Ten title at +500.
However, the landscape of college football is about to get more challenging with the additions of UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington to the conference in 2024.
The big question remains: can Penn State win at least ten games in the upcoming regular season? Let’s dig in to find out.
Why Penn State Could Win Over 9.5 Games?
Penn State is poised for another stellar season, leveraging the momentum from back-to-back double-digit win seasons. The foundation of their potential success begins with the robust roster packed with returning talent, especially on offense. Entering his second year as the starting quarterback, Drew Allar shows signs of growing into the role. His growth is bolstered by an intimidating ground game led by Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who are set to be one of the premier running back duos in the nation.
The offensive unit is further strengthened by Tyler Warren, a promising tight end, and wideout Julian Fleming, an experienced transfer from Ohio State. Fleming was ranked as the 11th-best receiver in the transfer portal and brings significant experience.
In 2023, Penn State’s offense stood out by scoring the 15th-most points per game nationally and excelling in rushing metrics, placing them in the top percentiles. With these key players leading, the offense is expected to remain highly productive.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions have crucial returning players like edge rusher Abdul Carter and safety Jaylen Reed. Reed earned an Honorable Mention for All-Big Ten Defense in 2023, while Carter, who made the Second-Team All-Big Ten as a linebacker, is transitioning to a more specialized edge rusher role. His versatility and impact are reminiscent of former Nittany Lion Micah Parsons.
The schedule is another favorable factor. With seven home games and only five on the road, Penn State can capitalize on the formidable home-field advantage that Beaver Stadium offers. Crucially, their toughest matchup against Ohio State will be at home.
The Nittany Lions also avoid playing Oregon, a team with the second-shortest odds to win the Big Ten and face USC at a time when the Trojans are in a transitional phase without Caleb Williams. Given their returning experience and strategic schedule, Penn State is well-equipped to secure at least ten victories in the upcoming season.
Why Penn State Could Win Under 9.5 Games?
While there’s ample optimism, several factors could hinder Penn State from reaching the 10-win mark. The departure of key talent significantly impacts the team, particularly along the lines of scrimmage. Offensive lineman Olumuyiwa Fashanu and defensive linemen Chop Robinson, Caedan Wallace, and Adisa Isaac have all moved on to the NFL.
Their absence leaves a void—both Fashanu and Robinson were First-Team All-Americans and top draft picks, while Isaac received First-Team All-Big Ten honors and was named the conference’s EDGE Defender of the Year. These are crucial losses, especially in a conference that significantly values trench warfare, particularly as the season progresses into the colder months.
Moreover, Penn State’s secondary is undergoing a substantial overhaul. The departures of starters Kalen King, Johnny Dixon, and Daequan Hardy mean the Nittany Lions will be fielding a largely unproven cornerback unit. To mitigate this, they’ve acquired A.J. Harris, a top-rated cornerback transfer from Georgia who appeared in seven games last season. However, the pressure will be immense on these new additions to quickly adapt and perform.
On the offensive side, quarterback Drew Allar, although highly talented, still has much to prove. In 2023, he finished fourth in the Big Ten in passing yards but has yet to fully unleash his potential. The outcome of the season may hinge on how well he adapts and leads the team, especially in high-stakes games.
While the evidence leans towards Penn State surpassing 9.5 wins, these roster challenges present a substantial risk. Given the difficulties in replacing multiple NFL-caliber players and the evolving dynamics within the team, hitting the 10-win mark is far from guaranteed.
