Do you realize that after this week’s games, nearly 40% of the regular season schedule will have been played? It all goes by quickly so it’s important to make the most of what remains.
Last week, our program was 55-13 in predicting winners, which brings the season total to 189-37 for 84%.
Nearly sixty games are on the schedule this week, headlined by #6 Notre Dame at #5 Georgia. Georgia has established better metrics on our system, although Notre Dame’s are almost all positive and the Fighting Irish have played stronger opponents. Georgia’s sharper trend lines and getting this one at home are primary reasons the Bulldogs are favored, 35-34.
Similar reasons we’re predicting that #25 Wisconsin will upset #11 Michigan. Wisconsin has strong up-lines in momentum and performance factors while Michigan has been essentially flat-lined.
One prediction in our program that we’re watching closely is Appalachian State at North Carolina. North Carolina is the choice in a minor upset and by a narrow margin. Both teams are wobbly in their placements with us so the prediction has a low “certainty” factor. Both teams experienced head coaching changes in the off-season and neither seems to have yet solidified.
SMU has been climbing the rankings all season but if history holds true for coach Sonny Dykes, the Mustangs are probably going to take a tumble, perhaps as soon as this week’s showdown with TCU. Although other analysts have TCU in the top-25 and SMU getting close, our program disagrees with both and will not likely rank either in 2019.
In the PAC-12 . . .
Washington has a big challenge in trying to stop BYU‘s emerging Heisman candidate quarterback Zach Wilson. As surprising as BYU has been, it’s performance lines are not particularly surprising, which means Washington should cover the 37-21 prediction.
Colorado looked good two weeks ago in upholding our prediction that the Buffs would upset Nebraska. Overall, however, Colorado is performing about as expected and that makes the Buffs 28-20 underdogs at Arizona State.
Cal is on the road for its second game in three weeks against strong opponents. This time, the Bears travel to Ole Miss in a game that will be close, low-scoring, and won by the home town Rebels, 21-20.
The Oregon Ducks have some business to take care of at Stanford after the Cardinal won a near-miraculous comeback in Eugene last year. But, things are different this season and Oregon is a solid 34-24 favorite.
We asked before the season began what on earth David Shaw and Stanford are doing. Even after three games, we still don’t know, although it’s easy to see whatever it is, it isn’t working.
But, some things aren’t working well for Oregon either. We’ve been commenting all season about Oregon’s quest to build a leading power-rush attack, yet the Ducks are ranked only 49th in the nation. For a team that returned all five starting offensive linemen plus a 1000-yard rusher, there are sufficient reasons for concern.
That might not matter much against Stanford because the Cardinal can’t defend the pass and now must deal with one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Oregon’s Justin Herbert. It would be a shame if Oregon doesn’t turn Herbert loose to long-ball Stanford’s secondary into utter frustration.
Utah has an extraordinary advantage in performance trend lines over USC, so it’s likely the Utes will win in Los Angeles by at least the four points we are predicting.
Washington State has the top passer in college football, statistically at least, yet the Cougars are seen by our system as just 32-17 winners over UCLA. The Cougars average 49 points per game so we’ll be watching this one to see if our program is better than our guess that WSU scores over 40 and wins by more than 20.
For predictions on every FBS football game this week, click here.
