Only three divisions in the NFL survived Week One with three teams winning their games, and the NFC West (some call it the NFC best) was one of them, joining the NFC North and the AFC North.
Seattle struck first, defeating the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch. The 49ers claimed victory the next day over the Rams, and the Cardinals took out the Chargers on Sunday. The Rams were the heavy Super Bowl favorites going into the season and were handed a humbling defeat along with a brutal stat – they were the only team in the league that failed to score at least 10 points in week one. Even more brutal, it tied for the highest-scoring opening week of the season in the Super Bowl era, and the highest-scoring team from a season ago couldn’t manage two scores in four quarters. The Rams averaged more than 30 points per game last season, but the Browns scored more this week. I imagine the Rams will be very aggressive in their follow-up.
But week one is now in the rearview, and no matter what we think we learned, we still know nothing. It’s far too early to have any idea what is going on with any team.
Moving on to week two!
This week, three of the four teams host their opponent, but Seattle is not one of them as they travel to face the Cardinals in Arizona Sunday afternoon. The 49ers host the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon, while the Rams host the Giants on Monday night.
Seattle will be without starting QB Sam Darnold for at least another week as he rehabs from an injury that seems to change location by the minute, depending on where you get your sports reporting. For today at least, they are calling it a unique soft tissue injury in the glute area. Some call it the Forrest Gump war wound; let’s hope for Darnold that doesn’t stick, as we still see folks refer to fellow USC alum and Jets QB Mark Sanchez as the butt fumble guy. The Seahawks hope Darnold will be back sometime in September, but early whispers suggest he will be out until mid-October, so we will see how quickly he returns to the field.
For now, Seattle has Drew Lock starting at QB, and with a somewhat brand-new offense, a brand-new face at RB, and a brand-new play caller, things were already in question on offense; now you have to ask what system they run while they wait for Darnold to return. If week five against the 49ers is the projected return for Darnold, they will need to survive this week and their next two games against the Commanders and Chargers with Lock at QB. None of those teams have terrifying defenses, and Lock already beat the Patriots, which is a legitimately scary defense, so on paper new OC Brian Fleury could call whatever he was going to call for Darnold and keep the system going. But he’ll likely need to go more run-heavy than he planned and keep Lock out of bad down-and-distance situations. With Seattle’s defense holding opponents in check, it should limit the Seahawks from being dragged into shootouts, but if they find themselves down by more than two scores in the second half, they could get into trouble being forced to pass.
Seattle at Arizona
The Cardinals come into this game fresh off their first of what they hope will be many unexpected wins this season, after taking down the Chargers last week in a low-scoring tug-of-war the Chargers clearly weren’t prepared for. Arizona has so many new faces on both sides of the ball; it’s really tough to know what they are capable of. So many changes usually come with a lot of growing pains, and perhaps those are on the way, but for now they’re the shiny new toy in the store. And their new head coach Mike LaFluer (kid brother of Matt LaFluer in Green Bay) is battling Brock Purdy to win the “middle school student lost at their parent’s office” contest. Purdy has been in the lead of that challenge for years; good to see they found him some competition. Eventually someone had the title from Frankie Muniz.
Seattle has a backup QB, a rookie RB, and a rookie OC. Other than that, they are business as usual, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a balanced offense paired with a super aggressive defense. They will ask Lock to make plays, but I would be surprised if they asked him to win the game for them. If he were going to be the starter the rest of the way, this would probably be the game they start seeing what he can do, but they know he’s a short-term stopgap. Just don’t lose the game; that’s what they will ask of him.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a rookie HC who is also a rookie playcaller, a rookie RB, and their OC is Nathanial Hackett (my god, who keeps hiring this guy). They do have continuity in a few places, as many of their offensive and defensive players stuck around, and their previous defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis, stayed on. Rallis called plays on defense the last two years, so the guys who stuck around over the summer know who they are working for and need to help the new guys get used to the scheme.
Seattle scored 13 points last week, and Arizona had 26, but their opponents were quite different, so we can’t just look at that stat and panic. Seattle was also playing at home while Arizona was on the road, so we can’t take location as a variable since it’s a different location for both teams this week. Even if they won’t admit it, Arizona is starting a guy at QB they would prefer to keep on the bench. Still, they have limited options right now, with Jacoby Brissett as their best chance to win right away and give Carson Beck time to learn before being thrown to the wolves, and no one really wants to see Gardner Minshew out there. Brissett won’t make many highlight reels, but he is a very savvy veteran player who knows when to take risks and when not to. The Cardinals have a very opportunistic defense, and while they lack some of the star power Seattle boasts, they aren’t afraid to punish QBs with well-timed blitzes and confusing coverage schemes.
Against the Patriots, Seattle had just 46 plays on offense, down from their average of 59 plays per game last season. For comparison, Seattle had 70 plays on offense in the Super Bowl. Granted, the Patriots ran the ball a lot more this time around, but it’s still an interesting trend to watch, especially since the defense gave the offense two bonus possessions via turnovers last week. Technically, three, but the final one happened so late it didn’t really give them a chance to run anything.
Drew Lock was very efficient, completing 16 of 22 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. We can’t count on that happening again now that his opponent has had a chance to game plan for him. New England has an elite defense, but throwing out your entire game plan halfway into the first quarter would disrupt just about any team on the road in their first game of the season. Arizona is quite familiar with the Shanahan system, as they run their own version of it and play against it at least six times per season in the division alone, since all four division teams run a variation of that system on offense. Lock is a very capable QB, but he’s had limited success as a starter, so we will see how he fares now that the defense can spend the week planning for him in practice and they have film of how he will react to certain coverages and what Seattle called against them versus what their success rate was.
Seattle had just 20 designed rushing attempts against the Patriots, down from 30 per game last season. They ran the ball 32 times in the Super Bowl, and they also punted two more times than they did in the Super Bowl. The rushing yards weren’t in bunches either; they averaged a steady 4.5 yards per attempt but had only two runs break ten yards. They will need more production and more juice from their rushing attack this week to control the tempo and hold onto the ball. The Patriots had the ball for twelve more game minutes than Seattle did; that isn’t going to fly most weeks. They will need to win on the scoreboard and in time of possession, or the defense will be on the field too much to be as effective as they are used to.
The Cardinals ran the kind of balanced attack Seattle is looking for, running more than 70 plays last week with 37 pass attempts and 34 rushing plays while holding onto the ball for 15 more minutes than their opponent. They didn’t have gaudy rushing numbers, averaging just over three yards per attempt, but they stuck with it and forced the opposing defense to play honest.
Seattle kept overthinking in the second half and got into tight spots; they should have leaned on the running game, limited what they asked Lock to do, and let the defense force the Chargers to score quickly while playing from behind. Arizona didn’t have many explosive plays on offense; their biggest pass play went for 33 yards, and their longest rush was 14 yards. But they stuck with it and forced the Chargers to play from behind and try to move the ball quickly, which played right into the Cardinals’ game plan. They cooked the Chargers slow and low all afternoon and, by the end, won 26-14. They only got in the end zone twice for touchdowns; the rest of their points came from field goals.
Seattle needs to be ok with getting three points at a time and not giving their punter too much work. Arizona only punted three times last week and didn’t have any turnovers, but they did pick off the Chargers once and force one fumble. When they had the ball, they moved into scoring range and did it slowly, which is the most terrifying kind of opponent early in the season; it speeds up the clock in your QB’s head and makes you do things you normally would avoid.
The Cardinals do not appear to be the circled win everyone expected going into the season; Seattle needs to prepare for four tough quarters against an underrated and very much alive opponent.
Seattle can and should win this game, but it’s not a circled win; they’ll have to earn it, and it’s probably going to be a frustrating experience to watch in person or on TV.
San Francisco vs Miami
The 49ers put the Rams through a buzzsaw a week ago, so I will be very surprised if this game isn’t even more lopsided. The Dolphins really don’t have anything they do well on either side of the ball at this point, and have a completely reworked roster to go with a brand new coaching staff, the truest form of a rebuild ever. At this point, they could probably choose a random fan to call their plays on offense, and it wouldn’t matter much. Their offensive coordinator spent a lot of time working for Kyle Shanahan before branching out on his own, getting fired, and landing his second stop in three years. We will see how much of a leash the Dolphins front office gives him before they opt to bring in someone more proven.
San Francisco is already in mid-season form in both efficiency and injuries, and with that darn electric substation continuing to dismantle their dreams (no scientific evidence so far, but that doesn’t always mean much), it’s just a matter of time before they roll out more reserves than starters. I really don’t know why the substation isn’t investigating Shanahan’s car crash over the summer, but I’m sure local PD has their reasons.
The 49ers ran and passed the ball at will against the Rams and their supposed all-time great defense, and then managed to shut down their offense to the lowest point total of the season so far, which was three scores fewer than the Rams averaged last season. Not too shabby for a first crack at the season, and now they get Miami at home as an encore. I expect San Francisco to win big again, and they’ll probably even rest their starters in the fourth quarter. Dolphins QB Malik Willis is sneaky as a runner and a passer, but he doesn’t have much help on offense beyond RB De’Von Achane, so if the 49ers key on the rushing attack, I have doubts about what Willis can do through the air with a patchwork team at his disposal.
Miami likely starts 0-2, while San Francisco starts 2-0. Whoever wins the game between Seattle and Arizona will be tied for the division lead, as they would have one conference win that is also a division win, plus one other win overall against a non-conference opponent.
Rams vs Giants
The Giants have some new pieces on offense and in their coaching staff. If this game were being played in New Jersey, I would have some doubts about the Rams blowing them out, but I fully expect the Rams to have their heads on straight this week now that they are back in the USA and playing in their actual home stadium, and have slept in their own beds all week. Myles Garrett is out for the next four games, so we will see how the pass rush does (even if Aaron Donald plays) without an elite rusher pressuring Giants QB Jaxson Dart. Former Ravens HC John Harbaugh is now the Giants’ HC, and he hired former Bears HC Matt Nagy as OC and former Titans DC Dennard Wilson as the new DC in NY. The Giants humbled the Cowboys last week, but they will have their work cut out for them this week as they face a sleeping juggernaut in the Rams and have to travel coast to coast to do it while playing on Monday Night, which means the Rams might actually have a relatively packed crowd of actual Rams fans for the first time in a long time.
Rams QB Matt Stafford had one of his worst outings in years last week, and he will definitely be working hard to shake off the rust and get on the same page with wideouts Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. The Rams’ rushing attack looked great last week in limited duty as they had to go into hurry-up mode for most of the second half. Still, it was fun to see fresh legs in Sean McVay’s system, which usually features Kyren Williams the majority of the time. Blake Corum finally got his chance to shine and looked ready, so the Giants will have to prepare for a lot of different looks when the Rams take the field. As good as the Rams were on offense last year, they could be even more efficient if they shift their personnel and make defenses guess what’s coming next, no matter who is on the field.
The Rams defense gave up a lot of chunk plays and points last week, and while it’s possible Seattle gave the league a blueprint on how to attack them last year, it’s more likely we just haven’t seen the Rams put their best players in the right situations yet. They have corners used to playing man who were asked to cover zones, and they have edge rushers being asked to play linebacker. It’s not wild to think they will figure it out; it’s just a matter of when. Dart is a sneaky runner and isn’t afraid to take chances, so the Rams will have to keep a spy on him and cover the whole field, but he’s a young QB, so Rams DC Chris Shula will find creative ways to keep him in the pocket and apply pressure with a depleted front. This game will likely be closer in the first half than it should be, before the Rams blow the doors off in the second half with a scoring explosion and make it a laugher by the end, something like 52-10.
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