Prior to the season, many NFL analysts projected the NFC West to once again place three teams in the playoffs. After Week 1, there’s no compelling reason to change that forecast, but there are hints the division may not go exactly as planned. A few injuries here and a few surprising outcomes there may indicate the status quo won’t hold in 2026.
Let’s look at where the NFC West hierarchy stands after week one. These rankings are based only on records and performances measured by advanced statistics in week one, not on each team’s overall talent level. And, yes, one game is an incredibly small sample size.
No. 4 The Los Angeles Rams
As the only team not to win in week one, let’s start with the LA Rams. The Rams were beaten soundly by the San Francisco 49ers last Thursday night in Melbourne, Australia, 27-7. They looked old and slow. In fact, they looked like a team that had flown fifteen hours from Los Angeles to Australia, gotten off the plane, and went almost directly to the game. Oh wait, that IS what they did.
The weeklong debate over the best way to prepare for a game in Australia was clearly settled by the 49ers’ approach: get there early and acclimate. The 49ers, who got down under a full six days before the contest, looked sharp. The Rams, who arrived less than a full day before kickoff, looked like zombies.
On offense, the Rams generated -0.26 expected points per play (EPA) and ranked 29th among all NFL offenses, according to NFL / Savant. In the good ol’ statistic that matters most, the Rams ranked last in points scored with 7.
The defense that was being compared to the 1985 Chicago Bears or the 2000 Baltimore Ravens didn’t fare much better. Without Aaron Donald, who did not make the trip, and a visibly hampered Myles Garrett, the Rams had +0.18 EPA, which ranks 25th. Since returning to LA, ESPN has reported that Garrett required arthroscopic knee surgery and was placed on the IL with no definite timeline for his return.
It’s only one game played in a different hemisphere and on a different day (it was Friday in Australia), but the upcoming schedule is daunting for the Rams. Their upcoming game against the New York Giants suddenly seems intriguing after the Giants beat the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and the next three games after that are a gauntlet. The Rams go to Denver to play the Broncos, to Philadelphia to play the Eagles, and then home to play the Buffalo Bills.
It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if the Rams started 0-5, all because they decided not to acclimate to Australian time.
No. 3 The Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals authored one of the more surprising upsets of Week 1, going into SoFi Stadium and defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14. The Cardinals’ victory was so solid that they never trailed at any point.
Coming into the season, the Chargers offense was highly anticipated to improve under Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniel. After all, as Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins, McDaniel made Tua Tagovailoa look competent. Imagine what he could do with Justin Herbert.
But on Sunday, the Cardinals defense held Herbert to 17/27 passing for 209 yards, one touchdown pass, one interception, for a 47.2 QBR. Chargers running back Omarion Hampton was held to 43 yards on 12 carries for 3.6 yards per carry, which included one rush for 14 yards. To his credit, he found the end zone once. To the credit of the Cardinals‘ defense, they held the Chargers to -0.24 EPA, which ranks 5th in the league.
It will be interesting to see as the season unfolds if the Cardinals are actually good or if the Chargers are just bad. For now, Arizona has to be encouraged.
No. 2 Seattle Seahawks
The season opener between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots was less decisive than Super Bowl LX, but the outcome was the same. Seahawks won 13-10. The scary moment when quarterback Sam Darnold left the game after the fifth snap with a hip injury seems to have passed ok. Darnold isn’t supposed to miss extended time, and backup Drew Lock looked solid.
Many may ask how you can rank the Seahawks second in the division when ESPN has them ranked second in the entire NFL. To be clear, we’re just looking at week one. In fact, if we look only at overall EPA, the Cardinals would need to switch places with the Seahawks. The ranking would be 49ers (+0.44), Cardinals (+0.39), Seahawks (+0.18), Rams (-0.44).
One factor in possibly temporarily downgrading the Seahawks is the lingering question about the defense’s turnover efficiency against New England. In other words, did the Seahawks force Patriots’ QB Drake Maye to throw three interceptions in the fourth quarter, or was Maye just terrible? This is not to say the Seahawks D wasn’t good. Their EPA of -0.11 ranks 12th in the NFL, and they did force the Patriots to punt four times before the three takeaways. Maye himself admitted he was “impatient,” blaming his own play for the turnovers.
On offense, Lock was competent. He was accurate (16/22), didn’t turn the ball over, and actually pushed the ball down the field some, with 8.5 yards per completion. Jadarian Price carried the ball 10 times for 52 yards. All the “ok” amounted to +0.07 EPA for an offensive ranking of 14th.
Given the outcomes from week one, the Seahawks’ upcoming road game at the Arizona Cardinals may be a very interesting game to watch. Stay tuned.
No. 1 The San Francisco 49ers
Unlike some other teams in the division, the 49ers got healthy for game one and beyond, seeing the return of TE George Kittle and DE Nick Bosa. Taking advantage of the six-day acclimation to Australian time, the 49ers dismantled the Rams, 27-7. Their dominance showed on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers’ offensive EPA is +0.18, which ranks 5th in the NFL. They are also 3rd in success rate at 56.3%. To emphasize how the 49ers’ offense had its way with the Rams’ defense, they were successful on 58.3% of their third-down plays, 5th in the league.
In all the offseason conversations about how the Rams were the team to beat, how the Rams were Super Bowl favorites, and how the Rams might go undefeated, the 49ers (and also the Seahawks) were all but forgotten. It’s as if no one remembered that the often-injured 49ers were 12-5 in 2025. What might a healthy 49ers team accomplish?
Heading into Week Two
To reiterate, these rankings are not projections for how the division will look at the end of the season. They are simply a snapshot of the four teams’ performances after one week. We’ll take another snapshot in week two, and our view of the NFC West will become clearer.
This week the Seattle Seahawks play the Arizona Cardinals in Arizona. We should get a better idea of how good the Cardinals are and see if the Seahawks can get by for one more week before Sam Darnold’s return. The 49ers host the Miami Dolphins in a game that should see the 49ers comfortably cruise to a 2-0 record. The Rams suddenly seem to face a “must-win” game against the feisty New York Giants on Monday Night Football. The Rams should be rested and will be playing at home.
We will see where every team stands after the dust settles in week two.
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