Fans of the Seattle Mariners tend to lean toward pessimism when it comes to their team’s fortunes. It’s no secret that the Mariners are the only franchise in Major League Baseball to have never even been to a World Series, much less won one. From 2004 to the present, the Mariners have had 15 losing seasons, including the COVID-shortened season. Most of them, obviously, came before the recent streak of five straight winning seasons. But even recency bias isn’t as powerful as long-entrenched memories of futility.
Last week, two games, both started by Bryce Miller, did little to encourage fans that this season has any hope of ending in the Fall Classic, just like the previous forty-eight. It didn’t help that the games effectively bookended the week: the first on Tuesday, the second on Sunday.
On Tuesday of last week against the Milwaukee Brewers, Miller took to the mound for his regularly scheduled start. He lasted just 4.2 innings while allowing six runs, five of them earned, on seven hits. In most instances, it could just be chalked up to a bad outing. But his next start raised concerns that something other than bad luck might be to blame.
On Sunday at home against the Chicago Cubs, Miller again took the bump. This time he only managed 4.1 innings, giving up six runs again. This time all six runs were earned. Two straight “bad outings?” Might there be something physical or mechanical to blame? Maybe.
It is telling that against the Cubs, Miller walked seven batters. In the nine innings that made up both outings, he walked nine. Of the 104 pitches thrown in the Cubs game, only 60 were thrown for strikes. In the Brewers game, the ratio was a little better, 92 pitches thrown with 63 for strikes. For the season, Miller has a BB/9 percentage of 2.39, making these two starts a clear outlier.
Miller is getting some extended rest, as his next scheduled start is Sunday, August 30th in Toronto against the Blue Jays. A good outing could put concerns to rest. The concerns that might take a little longer to assuage are how terrible the bullpen was in these two games. Miller may have given up 12 runs, but the bullpen gave up 29.
Oh, by the way, the final scores of the two games were 22-0 and 19-2.
In two games last week, the Mariners were outscored 41-2. Both games were highlighted on Sportscenter and Baseball Tonight, so the casual fan might think the Mariners are the worst team in baseball. But actually, sandwiched in between those two stinkers, the Mariners won three out of four. They ended the week 3-3.
To start the week against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Mariners’ record stood at 62-69, three games out of first place in the AL West, a division where every team heading into Monday night had a losing record. As the week has unfolded, the wins and losses of the three principal contenders in the West have left each team still under .500, with the Mariners gaining half a game on first place.
According to Fangraphs, the Mariners have a 41.3% chance of making the playoffs. That’s largely due to the fact they still have a 35.5% probability of winning the division. With 28 games left to play, the “magic number” by which they would be eliminated is 27. As far-fetched as it may seem, the Mariners aren’t dead yet.
Since August 14th, the Mariners have made up 3 ½ games on the first-place Astros. They play the Rangers three more times at home in early September and the Astros twice more later in September in Houston. If the Mariners can weather the home series against the Phillies – off to a good start – and the road trip to Boston and Toronto, they will not play another game for the rest of the season against an opponent who currently holds a winning record.
The Mariners still have seven games against the Athletics, who are 30 games under .500; seven games against the Los Angeles Angels, who are 28 games under .500; and three games against the Colorado Rockies, who have the worst winning percentage in baseball. The schedule is definitely there to be taken advantage of.
Other encouraging signs emerged Monday in the Mariners’ 9-2 win over the Phillies. One Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh went yard three times. He hit a fourth HR on Tuesday. If the catcher who went toe to toe with league MVP Aaron Judge last season wakes up from the worst season in major league history for a hitter who qualifies for the batting title, it could be the spark the Mariners need to make a serious push for the post-season.
It’s not some corny “hope springs eternal,” but neither should it be doom and gloom. The Seattle Mariners have a sober, realistic opportunity to make the post-season, even despite 41-2.
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