The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers meet for a third time this season in the divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs on Saturday at Lumen Field. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. on FOX, with Kevin Burkhardt and Tom Brady on the call.
This is the rubber match. San Francisco took the season opener in Seattle 17–13, but the Seahawks answered emphatically in Week 18, winning 13–3 at Levi’s Stadium in a defensive showcase that clinched the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed. Seattle finished 14–3 and earned a first-round bye. The 49ers went 12–5, grabbed the No. 6 seed, and advanced with a 23–19 wild-card win in Philadelphia.
That victory came at a steep cost. Star tight end George Kittle suffered a torn right Achilles tendon in the second quarter and is out for the remainder of the playoffs, with a typical recovery timeline of 9–12 months. Kittle was a major factor against Seattle this season, catching nine of 11 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown across the two regular-season meetings.
Recent Form and Key Matchups
Seattle’s defense has been the backbone of its season. The Seahawks allowed just 292 points (17.2 per game), ranked third in rushing defense at 94.4 yards per game, and held opponents to a league-low 3.7 yards per carry. They completely smothered San Francisco in Week 18, allowing only 173 total yards and three points. The 49ers had no first downs in the first quarter and just three in the entire first half. Seattle’s third-down defense has been elite all season, giving up conversions on only 32.4 percent of attempts, and held San Francisco to just 22 percent in the finale.
Offensively, Sam Darnold has delivered a steady first season as Seattle’s full-time starter. He finished the regular season completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns, and a 99.1 passer rating, while adding 95 rushing yards. The run game has surged late, with three of the Seahawks’ four best rushing performances coming in Weeks 16 through 18, including 180 yards against San Francisco in the finale. Jaxon Smith-Njigba gives Seattle a vertical threat, while Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet provide balance on the ground.
San Francisco, under Kyle Shanahan, still owns the NFL’s best third-down offense at 50 percent, but that efficiency vanished against Seattle, as the 49ers averaged just 10 points per game in the two regular-season meetings. Without Kittle, Brock Purdy loses a key red-zone target and one of the league’s best run-blocking tight ends, which could impact both Christian McCaffrey and the wide receivers, including Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
There are also questions on defense. Linebacker Fred Warner’s status is in doubt, with Shanahan calling the chances of activating him this week “not very high.” The good news for San Francisco is the return of left tackle Trent Williams, who is back from a hamstring injury and should stabilize the offensive line.
Odds and Outlook
Seattle enters as a touchdown favorite, with the spread sitting between -6.5 and -7.5 and the total around 45.5. The Seahawks’ moneyline is roughly -350, with San Francisco in the +280 to +300 range. Several analysts, including BetMGM’s Nick Hennion, lean toward the under, citing Seattle’s dominant defense, the 49ers’ struggles in this matchup, and the Seahawks’ ability to shorten the game with their running attack.
What to Watch
This shapes up as a physical, defense-driven game. Seattle’s front seven and secondary should be able to contain McCaffrey and force Purdy into tight-window throws without Kittle as a safety valve. The Seahawks also benefit from a bye week and home-field advantage, while the 49ers are coming off a short week and a grueling road win.
San Francisco’s scheme and toughness always make them dangerous, especially in divisional games, but the injuries and recent matchup history tilt the balance toward Seattle. If Darnold protects the football and the run game controls possession, the Seahawks do not need fireworks to win.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 13.
Seattle covers and advances to the NFC Championship behind another dominant defensive performance and a loud, energized Lumen Field.
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