I have a unique take on this matchup. My falls are spent covering SuperWest college football, which means Oregon is the most prolific team in our region. On a personal level, I’m a die-hard Washington State Cougars fan who follows everything crimson and grey. Just like everyone else who watches college football, I’ve gotten an opportunity to see the Ducks play a few times this year. But being a Coug, I also got to see WSU compete against James Madison, a team that kinda deserves to be in the College Football Playoff. The Dukes lost to Louisville by 14 and barely knocked off the Cougars at home. Albeit an 11-1 mark is phenomenal. This article is going to examine three reasons why UO got a perfect first-round matchup against JMU and whether it could help them going forward.
Who Are the Dukes?
James Madison features a unique offense led by their discipline. While they might not have the same caliber of athletes seen in the Big Ten, the Dukes compete until the end of every play.
JMU is led by its rushing attack, which features a variety of schemes. James Madison uses split-zones, an array of counters, and quarterback runs to keep the defense guessing. The quarterback tandem of Alonza Barnett III and Wayne Knight led the attack.
They also have three other players who have 200 yards rushing or more.
Oregon holds the talent edge, but they’ll need to stick to their assignments. The Ducks have faced a variety of squads this year, each with a significantly different style. USC and Iowa couldn’t be more different, and Demond Williams Jr. is creepy fast. But this is some eerie middle ground that could cause problems if overlooked. The Dukes feature the fifth-ranked rushing attack in yards per game nationally, and are tenth in the country in points scored per contest.
Barnett III is their offensive leader. He’s thrown for 2,533 yards, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He’s also added 544 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground.
JMU doesn’t have one standout receiver, but it does have five wideouts who have at least 300 yards receiving. Landon Ellis leads the group with 541 receiving yards and five touchdown receptions, while Knight has the most receptions on the team with 37.
He’s a dangerous playmaker both as a halfback and wideout. The Ducks need to kill his momentum early.
As long as UO stays in their gaps and doesn’t get overwhelmed by James Madison’s schematics, they should be able to dominate.
JMU’s Weaknesses
When the Dukes played Washington State, they were stymied for most of the contest. They only scored 10 points at halftime and 24 for the entire game. The Cougars have an excellent defense, but many of their starters played at FCS South Dakota State last year.
Oregon recruits some of the best players in the country; the talent gap is measurable.
The Ducks should be able to capitalize against a Dukes passing attack that averages just over 200 yards per game. They may consider stacking the box and forcing JMU’s receiver to win in one-on-one matchups. Players like Dillon Thieneman, Brandon Finney Jr., and Jadon Canady will need to play in unison to be ready for James Madison’s tricky offense.
Pressing them may speed them up and force them into early mistakes. This is important because UO struggles in red zone defense; they rank 124th nationally.
Another benefit of speeding up the contest is forcing JMU to keep pace with superior athletes. James Madison scores 37.3 points per game, which is tenth in the country, but this stat feels misleading. The Dukes only scored 14 points against Louisville.
On Offense, Oregon will need to match the physicality of the Dukes’ defensive line. They also must be aware of Trent Hendrick. Hendrick, a senior linebacker, finished with 96 tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble. He also won the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year award.
If UO protects Dante Moore, the Ducks’ receivers should be able to win in one-on-one matchups against JMU’s secondary. James Madison ranked twelfth nationally in passing yards allowed per game, but they haven’t faced anyone like TrackTown yet. Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr., and Evan Stewart are also expected to return for this contest.
The Dukes are fifth nationally in third-down defense, so if the Ducks can keep them on the field, they’ll probably wear out. Oregon didn’t come this far to be stopped by James Madison.
Ideal First Round Matchup
JMU should not have the talent to hang with UO. In a CFP game, this means that the Ducks can get away with a few mistakes without getting lambasted.
But the Dukes are well-coached and efficient at what they do. If UO doesn’t play disciplined, they will get beaten. James Madison ranks fifth nationally in rushing yards per game; they’re legit.
Another thing to consider is that the JMU has never seen anything like Autzen Stadium. A few penalties could prove devastating for a Dukes’ team that needs a couple of breaks to go their way.
Barnett is also someone to be ready for; he’s kinda like a mobile Eli Manning. Against the Cougars, he slept for the first 40 minutes of the contest and then unleashed a 68-yard touchdown pass to tie the game. A quarter later, James Madison had a long touchdown run up the middle by Wayne Knight, completing a six-play 86-yard touchdown drive in just under three minutes.
Oregon needs to end this game quickly.
If the Ducks can eliminate the Dukes’ big strikes, it would play into JMU’s weakness: the Dukes rank 96th in red zone offense.
Players like Barnett, Knight, and Hendrick are solid. But UO has a team full of NFL prospects.
James Madison’s a perfect first-round matchup because of the talent disparity, variety of schemes, and strikeability. They should prepare Oregon for who’s next.
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