Sixth-ranked Indiana comes to Eugene with bad intentions against the #2 Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. It is the game of the week in America, and it comes with lots of goodies.
There is a “The Top 25” problem that we’ll address, along with a prediction served up by my savvygameline.com projection system.
But first the goodies, beginning with Indiana coach Curt Cignetti.
Some say he is bold; others say provocative. Either way, you can count on Cignetti telling you what he thinks.
Hoosier fans love most of it. Duck fans won’t be as fond, as you’ll soon see.
Cignetti has always been a winner. He won championships as a head coach at James Madison in the FCS, and he continued to win when JMU elevated to the FBS level.
That is why he was hired by perennial loser Indiana, which had a 3-9 record before he took over. Cignetti was confident he would produce an immediate winner, and he wasn’t shy about provoking opponents with the news.
He showed up for his first Big Ten preseason Media Days and promptly announced that in a few months, Indiana would play for the Big Ten championship.
Eyes rolled. Big Ten blue bloods scoffed.
Eleven months later, Indiana finished in a tie with Penn State for second place in the Big Ten, high enough to play for the conference title. Penn State won the tiebreaker rules and Indiana stayed home, but Cignetti had made his point.
I question the wisdom of putting such an early target on your back, but then, I don’t suppose he cares much what I think, just like he didn’t care when one reporter asked him about his unconventional thoughts on the star system used by recruiting services.
The question to him was how much value he places on the stars that services assign to high school prospects. Cignetti shot back that it was useless. “I don’t pay attention to any of that,” he retorted. “Do you really think that some guy who puts stars on kids knows what he’s talking about?”
With Indiana standing 4-0 last season, Cignetti became miffed with the lack of student attendance at IU football games. So, he sent an email to students telling them that attending games was more important than tailgating or partying. He might have gone too far when he added, “If you need to study, that can wait, too!”
Attendance at the next game had 5,000 more fans than the game before
When we might think that the targets on IU’s back couldn’t get any bigger, there is this. Cignetti showed up at an Indiana basketball game. He incited the crowd and ended his rant by exclaiming, “Purdue sucks!” When fans finally settled down, he added, “So does Michigan and Ohio State! Go IU!”
There’s more, and here is where Duck fans are likely to get their feathers ruffled.
It starts with what I’m calling “The Top 25 Problem”.
It is the one issue that seems to unravel the seemingly unflinching Curt Cignetti.
What is “The Top 25 Problem”?
In the only two games Indiana played last year against teams that finished in the top 25, Indiana lost twice – by big, big margins.
Naysayers alleged that Cignetti could not beat a top 25 team.
Cignetti shot back that Nebraska had been in the top 25 in 2024 when Indiana pasted the Cornhuskers 56-7. He reminded the mockers of his time at James Madison. “Coastal Carolina … they were 22nd the year we beat them 47-7. So we don’t just beat top-25 teams. We beat the _ _ _ _ out of them.”
Did you catch that, Duck fans?
He beats the _ _ _ _ out of top 25 teams.
You have a top 25 team. Guess what he will be thinking while he is strutting the Autzen sideline.
He’s certainly not coming to Eugene to lose. He doesn’t think he should ever lose. In fact, he is 63-11 in his last 74 games, and two weeks ago, he dismantled Illinois 63-10 when the Illini were ranked ninth in the nation.
If he did it to them, be assured that he’s planning to do it to you as well.
Upon reviewing the accomplishments of Indiana and Oregon, it almost seems as though I am looking at twins. In fact, I don’t recall ever performing comparisons on two teams that come out so precisely equitable.
Both score more than 46 points per game while allowing less than 13.
Oregon’s Dante Moore has thrown 14 touchdowns and had just one intercepted.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown 16 touchdowns and just one interception.
Both quarterbacks are transfers from the State of California who are first-time starters at their new schools.
Mendoza is a former California Bear who was sacked 45 times before being evacuated to Indiana.
Both offensive lines rank in the top 15.
Both defenses are among the top one-third of the nation’s best run-stopping units, and both rank in the top 10 for stopping touchdown passes.
Cignetti voiced concern about the size of Oregon’s defensive interior line, which seems odd since Oregon’s interior defensive linemen average 317 pounds, compared to Indiana’s offensive line, which averages 313 pounds.
Although these teams are similar, there is one area of stark difference that favors the Hoosiers.
Indiana’s defense is fifth-best in the nation for bringing pressure. Oregon is 100th. Indiana is likely to put pressure on Moore, but Oregon is not as likely to put much pressure on Mendoza. Mendoza can expect time in the pocket. Moore probably should not.
Indiana also has a problem, but it is not as threatening.
Against Illinois, the Hoosier secondary miscommunicated five times, and Cignetti was not happy. The Illini didn’t capitalize, but if those mistakes continue, Oregon will.
Duck fans rave about offensive coordinator Will Stein, but he wasn’t the one voted Best Offensive Coordinator in the Big Ten last year. That honor was given to Indiana’s Mike Shanahan, who was also named national offensive coordinator by two reputable sports publications.
Shanahan and Stein are both good, but apparently, Shanahan is gooder.
Shanahan has two primary emphases in his attack: 1) make defenses cover the entire field — flats, middle, long-ball; and 2) focus on mismatches of his receivers over defenders and strike often. As a former wide receiver, Shanahan is quick to see those mismatches.
Who will win? At this time, the key questions are:
- Can the Indiana defense press its advantage in getting to Dante Moore? If they do, Indiana will have significant leverage.
- If not, Dante Moore will have time to find those communication breakdowns in the Indiana secondary, and Oregon will have opportunities.
So Duck fans, you know coach Cignetti’s intentions. He’s coming to Eugene to beat the _ _ _ _ out of your Ducks. How will you respond?
Will you let him walk away with a shiny Duck feather in his hat, or will you come to Autzen with passion and help the ducks deliver a passionate win that says, “Hey, Curt, you still got a top 25 problem!”
Although my Savvy Index prediction system favors Oregon by eight, it comes with one of the highest upset warnings of all 56 games being played across the country.
Last week, my system was 39-12 in picking winners and now stands 330-82 for the season. It is a whopping 18 games better than betting lines in setting point spreads and one game better in predicting total game points.
To see all 56 predictions, please visit savvygameline.com.
It’s all for fun, and it’s all free. No registrations. No money. No emails. No kidding. This is for fun, not for business.
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