Editor’s Note: This column was written on the afternoon of September 24. Since then, Cal Raleigh hit his 60th homerun, the Seattle Mariners won the AL West, and Aaron Judge hit his 50th and 51st homerun.
The 2025 American League MVP race has crystallized into a thrilling duel between New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. Judge, a two-time MVP, has delivered another colossal season, leading the majors in batting average (.326), on-base percentage (.451), slugging (.672), OPS (1.123), and both versions of WAR (9.2 fWAR, 9.0 bWAR). His 130 runs scored and role as the anchor of a Yankees team fighting for playoff positioning make him a formidable candidate.
But MVP isn’t just about who’s the “best player” or who posts the flashiest rate stats. It’s about value—the player most indispensable to their team’s success, viewed through the lens of context. In that framework, Raleigh emerges as the deserving winner. His historic power surge, elite defense at baseball’s most punishing position, and central role in propelling the Mariners toward their first AL West title in 24 years make his case undeniable. With betting odds deadlocked at -115 for both players, Raleigh’s narrative-driven, context-heavy season gives him the edge over Judge’s statistical dominance.
Let’s start with offense, where Raleigh isn’t just competing—he’s rewriting history. As of September 24, he leads all of baseball with 58 home runs and 121 RBIs, shattering multiple records. He’s broken the single-season home run mark for catchers (previously 48), switch-hitters (surpassing 54 from 1961), and his own franchise (eclipsing 56 from 1997 and ’98). If he hits two more homers in Seattle’s final six games—all at home against the Rockies and Dodgers—he’ll reach the hallowed 60-home-run mark, a feat achieved cleanly only by Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, and Judge himself (discounting PED-linked totals). Hitting 62 would tie Judge’s AL record; 63 would set a new non-PED standard.
Yes, Judge’s .326/.451/.672 line outshines Raleigh’s .247/.360/.589 (169 OPS+), but context is critical. Raleigh plays half his games in T-Mobile Park, the most pitcher-friendly stadium in MLB over the last three years. Yankee Stadium, meanwhile, ranks third for home runs and average for runs. Adjusted for park effects, Raleigh’s power is even more remarkable—executives estimated he’d have around 64 homers in Judge’s park. As a switch-hitter, Raleigh adds versatility, thriving in tough matchups, and his 14 stolen bases top Judge’s 12, showing unexpected agility for a catcher.
Offense alone, though, doesn’t seal it for Raleigh. His defense and position are the game-changers. Catcher is baseball’s most grueling role, described as a “landslide” ahead of other positions. Raleigh has logged over 1,046 innings behind the plate, more than any AL catcher, starting 116 games there (plus 35 at DH). He’s not just surviving the physical and mental toll—bruises, welts, and calling 150 pitches per game—he’s excelling. Fielding metrics rate him at +7 (tied for seventh overall), and he ranks sixth in framing value, a vital modern skill. His work with Seattle’s elite pitching staff adds immeasurable value. Judge, slowed by an elbow flexor strain, has negative defensive metrics in right field and has DH’d in 55 games, limiting his overall impact.
This positional edge resonates with front-office voices. A poll of over a dozen executives gave Raleigh a 7-6 edge over Judge (with one tie), with many citing the “competitive advantage” of a catcher producing at an elite level while handling top-tier pitching. One executive noted that while Judge’s overall production leads per WAR, Raleigh in Yankee Stadium would have around 64 homers—and he’s a catcher.
The team narrative further bolsters Raleigh’s case. The Mariners, overshadowed by the Astros’ seven straight full-season AL West titles, are now poised to claim the division for the first time since 2001. Raleigh has been the heartbeat of their late surge, slashing .288/.409/.658 with eight homers and 14 RBIs in September, outpacing Judge’s 1.3 fWAR with 1.4. During Seattle’s 14-1 run since September 6, his 1.151 OPS has lifted them from the No. 6 seed to No. 2. Without Raleigh, where would the Mariners be? Judge’s Yankees lead by just one game, but Raleigh’s carrying a franchise out of a quarter-century drought.
Voter fatigue and anti-Yankees sentiment also factor in. Judge’s two MVPs in the last three years may lead some to tire of “the same dude winning.”
Judge is a statistical marvel. But MVP is about holistic impact. Raleigh’s defense, record-breaking power, ballpark challenges, and team-lifting heroics make him the most valuable. As the Mariners face the Rockies’ shaky pitching (5.42 road ERA, 108 HRs allowed away) in their final homestand, Raleigh’s chase for 60 could seal it. Even without it, his case stands: In 2025, “Big Dumper” has dumped the competition.
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