As the 129th edition of one of college football’s oldest rivalries kicks off this Saturday at noon in Eugene’s raucous Autzen Stadium, the odds couldn’t be more stacked against the Oregon State Beavers. The No. 6 Ducks are 3-0, coming off a solid win over Northwestern, and enter as 35.5-point favorites—one of the biggest spreads in this storied series’ history. Meanwhile, the Beavers are 0-3, fresh off a lopsided loss to Texas Tech that included a lengthy weather delay and a paltry rushing effort. Oregon has dominated lately, winning the last two meetings overall and eight straight in Eugene, where the home crowd’s noise can disrupt even the sharpest offenses.
But hey, this is college football—upsets are part of the charm. Suppose the Beavers are going to defy the predictions (like the early call of Ducks 56, Beavers 14) and claim state bragging rights in what might be the last matchup for a while (no game scheduled for 2026, and the series’ future is murky amid conference shifts). In that case, they’ll need several stars to align. Drawing from the buzz around both programs, here are the critical things to watch that could give Oregon State a fighting chance.
1. Maalik Murphy’s Arm vs. Oregon’s Stingy Pass Defense
The Beavers’ redshirt junior quarterback, Maalik Murphy, has shown flashes of elite talent with his cannon of an arm, racking up 896 passing yards and six touchdowns through three games. Oregon State ranks tied for 17th nationally with 17 completions of 20-plus yards, and they’ve strung together five straight games with a 100-yard receiver—their longest such streak since 2004-05. Trent Walker leads the way with 302 receiving yards (13th in the nation), and David Wells Jr. just notched his first 100-yard game against Texas Tech.
For an upset, Murphy must unleash those big plays without the five interceptions that have plagued him early on. The Ducks’ defense, anchored by linebacker Bryce Boettcher (17 tackles, an interception), has allowed just five passes of 20-plus yards, tying for 22nd nationally. If Murphy can protect the ball and connect deep—perhaps exploiting Oregon’s secondary in a quick-release scheme—the Beavers could keep the scoreboard ticking and force the Ducks into a shootout. Turnovers, though, would be a death knell against a team that’s covered the spread in two of its first three games.
2. Reviving the Ground Game Against a Formidable Front
Anthony Hankerson has been Oregon State’s workhorse, with 190 rushing yards and a touchdown on 51 carries, but the Beavers’ run game sputtered badly last week, managing negative yards in spots. Facing Oregon’s stout defensive line, which has helped limit opponents to just 256 total yards per game (24th nationally), Hankerson and company need to establish the run early to control the clock and ease pressure on Murphy.
Ducks coach Dan Lanning has emphasized winning in the trenches, noting that games like this often hinge on line play. Oregon State’s offensive line, coached by former Duck analyst Mike Cavanaugh, will be tested by a deep Ducks front seven that includes standouts like Bear Alexander and Terrance Green. If the Beavers can “attack more” up front, as head coach Trent Bray urged after the Texas Tech debacle—drawing on lessons from facing another talented defensive line—they might open passing lanes and wear down Oregon’s defense. Without it, expect the Ducks’ speed (led by Noah Whittington’s 159 rushing yards and two scores) to turn this into a track meet.
3. Defensive Discipline in a Hostile Environment
Autzen’s 54,000 fans create one of the loudest atmospheres in the sport, and the Beavers are no strangers to road woes after their weather-delayed blowout in Lubbock. Linebacker Dexter Foster leads OSU with 25 tackles, including 2.5 for loss, and the defense has defended 13 passes in three games. To compete, they’ll need to eliminate explosive plays from Oregon’s high-octane offense, quarterbacked by Dante Moore (657 yards, seven TDs, one INT on 78% completion).
Bray stressed the importance of preparing for a “hostile environment” by learning from Texas Tech, focusing on fast execution and limiting significant gains. The Ducks’ new-look black uniforms honoring Nike founder Phil Knight might add flair, but it’s their quick ball movement and veteran line that could exploit pre-snap penalties—something OSU has struggled with. If the Beavers’ defense, including transfers like Tevita Pome’e (a former Duck), can disrupt Moore and force third-and-longs, they might create turnovers or short fields. Oregon has been sloppy at times, like in their closer-than-expected Northwestern win, so capitalizing on any rust could be key.
4. The Intangibles: Motivation Amid a Fading Rivalry
This game carries extra weight as the rivalry faces an uncertain pause, with Ducks coach Dan Lanning voicing support for its continuation despite the hiatus. For in-state products like Ducks linebacker Bryce Boettcher, it’s personal—he’s hyped for his final shot in a Duck uniform after tallying 11 tackles against OSU last year. On the Beavers’ side, Bray, a former OSU linebacker with 32 tackles in four rivalry games as a player, downplayed the traditional intensity due to conference realignment and player movement, calling it more about facing a top-10 foe in a great setting.
Yet, that mindset could fuel an underdog fire. With 14 different pass-catchers involved this season (up from last year) and a scheme that gets the ball out quickly to counter Oregon’s pass rush, the Beavers have the tools for surprises. Watch for special teams or trick plays to swing momentum—OSU hasn’t covered a spread yet, but they’ve gone over in two of three games, hinting at potential fireworks.
In the end, the gap between these programs feels wider than ever, with Oregon’s resources and talent dwarfing a rebuilding OSU squad navigating life without a major conference. Bray himself noted the rivalry “is not what it used to be,” but that’s no reason to count out the Beavers entirely. If they protect the ball, win up front, and thrive in the chaos of Autzen, they could make this more than a formality. Stranger things have happened in college football—tune into the Big Ten Network and see if the underdogs can bark loud enough to bite.
Be the first to comment