The rebuild is back on track, which is saying an awful lot considering just how ugly it got. Your, mine, and our Trail Blazers were bottom feeders, until they weren’t. Winning time looked really good on them, before reality bit back.
After winning 10 of 11 from January 19th to February 6th, Portland lost more (17) than they won (13), but it became clear they were a much better, more competitive team. This is best reflected in their 15-game improvement, eerily similar to Oklahoma City’s 16 between years 3 and 4 of their rebuild.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Portland Trail Blazers | |
| Year 1 | 44-28 (2019-20) | 27-55 (2021-22) |
| Year 2 | 22-50 (2020-21) | 33-49 (2022-23) |
| Year 3 | 24-58 (2021-22) | 21-61 (2023-24) |
| Year 4 | 40-42 (2022-23) | 36-46 (2024-25) |
And the similarities don’t stop there. Just as it was for OKC, the Blazers’ improvement was player-led.
The Portland Trail Blazers went from having more questions than answers to having at least a couple of players around whom they can definitely build. For the Thunder, it starts and ends with defense, and in Portland, it’s no different, finally! (They ranked 3rd in Defensive Rating over their last 40 games.)
The Heart & Soul – Building Block #1
Stop me if any of this sounds familiar!
First, from his coach:
“’What [he]has done defensively, he’s been outstanding. We need more of it….’”
“When asked what makes [him]special defensively…: ‘Physical strength. He has the profile there. He is really quick and agile, moving side to side. But the biggest thing is just his will and determination. He is guarding the best players every single night.”
And from the horse’s mouth (in the player’s own words):
“During… [his]rookie season, [a couple of]teammates… told him that defense is his key to playing time.
“I was just trying to find some minutes and playing time,’ [he]said. ‘[And his teammates] were the first ones to say if they put you on the court, guard the best player full court. And I just developed this mentality to do that….”
By doing so, by being willing and determined to do the dirty work that excellent defense requires, Luguentz Dort has firmly entrenched himself as “the heart and soul of the Thunder’s defense”.
And for any team that has championship aspirations now or in the future, this is a crucially important box to check. We’ll call it the Luguentz Dort box.
Toumani Camara emphatically checks it for the Trail Blazers and then some!
I’ll remind you of the crush I have on Camara:
Given Toumani’s length (6’7, with a wingspan over 7 feet), strength (229 lbs…), and defensive versatility…
… I’m feeling defensive shades of an even smaller school prospect (Camara played his college ball at Dayton)—small as in the University of Central Arkansas (UCA)—the only player to have played in the NBA from UCA, even Scottie Pippen …
I’m not saying Toumani Camara will be an all-timer, but I do fully expect him to be a perennial All-Defensive Team performer. I am also NOT saying he is just… a mere 3-and-D specialist.
[Over a 10 game span from 1/19 – 2/4 (he missed the win vs. the Miami Heat on 1/21), which coincided with his team’s most impressive stretch of the season] Toumani… averaged 12.7 pts on 62.3% shooting, including 1.7 3 pm on a 3P% of 53.6%, 7.2 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.2 stl, & 0.8 blk. Scintillating when combined with the dominant individual and team defense he’s been playing!
As I said, box checked and then some! But let’s keep this momentum going…
A[n All]-Star is Born – Building Block #2
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Jalen Williams became an All-Star this year for the 1st time, finally delivering on the considerable promise he first hinted at after the All-Star break his rookie season (2022-23) – to the tune 18.6 points on 54.6% shooting, including 1.2 3 pm on a 3P% of 42.9%, 5.4 reb, 4.3 ast, and 1.7 stl.
As a sophomore, he proved his post-All-Star rookie year breakout was just that, by putting up comparable numbers throughout a whole season – 19.1 points on 54% shooting, including 1.5 3 pm on a 3P% of 42.7%, 4 reb, 4.5 ast, and 1.1 stl.
You have to show more than flashes to go from a middling to a good player. In year 2, Williams was able to check the consistency box emphatically. Then, in his 3rd year, J-Will completed his evolutionary mission and became a Star by averaging 21.6 points on 48.4 shooting, including 1.8 3 pm on a 3P% of 36.5%, 5.3 reb, 5.1 ast, and 1.6 stl.
For the Blazers, Deni Avdija seems to be on the same trajectory as Jalen Williams after Deni had his post-All-Star breakout. Over his final 20 games (a sample size spanning a quarter of a season), Avdija went on a tear, making the sweetest of music with averages of 23.3 points on 50.8% shooting, including 2.4 3 pm on a 3P% of 41.7%, 9.7 reb, 5.2 ast, and 1 stl.
If he can do this over a full season, there will be no intermediary step; his All-Star candidacy will be undeniable. Now that Deni Avdija has been fully unlocked, consistency is all that stands in his way!
While Deni hasn’t yet completed his All-Star mission, I feel supremely confident in crossing off another of the Portland Trail Blazers’ player needs: Complementary All-Star, the J-Will Box.
Which leads to the most important of all the boxes, the Alpha to Avdija’s Omega.
The Alpha
In this 2-Star Era of the NBA, Portland needs another one to emerge. And how good this player becomes will determine if the Trail Blazers will be just a playoff team or a legitimate contender. Think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander going from All-Star to MVP candidate.
As the roster stands now, there are two candidates (in descending order):
1a. Shaedon Sharpe – with his ceiling being as high as his 45.1-inch vertical leap
While the explosion usually leaves you with your mouth agape (just try & keep your jaw from dropping as you watch his TOP 10 dunks), he is far from a one-trick pony.
Shaedon combines this Vince Carter level athleticism with the craft, skill, and smoothness of Brandon Roy, as per his Head Coach, Chauncey Billups:
“’It’s crazy that I say this, but I honestly think he reminds me some of Brandon Roy, to be honest with you,’ Billups said. ‘By way of how smooth he is, Brandon was much more athletic than he got credit for. (Sharpe) gets to his spots. You really don’t speed him up. He does, he reminds me a lot of Brandon. But he reminds me also a little bit of Vince Carter. Just his athleticism, his smoothness, his gracefulness. So, obviously those are big time players and Vince is going to be a Hall of Famer. But he has this type of potential.”
And in Sharpe’s 1st three seasons, he hasn’t given would-be naysayers any reason to question his HOF potential. He isn’t skipping any steps either. Thus far, his improvement has been more incremental than leap-esque:
| Year | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | TO | STL | FG% | 3PM | 3P% | FT% |
| 22-23 | 80 | 22.2 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 36.0 | 71.4 |
| 23-24 | 32 | 33.1 | 15.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 40.6 | 1.9 | 33.3 | 82.4 |
| 24-25 | 72 | 31.3 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 45.2 | 2.0 | 31.1 | 78.5 |
But when he’s allowed to start, he shines a little brighter and more closely approximates the unlimited potential he seems to have:
| Year | GS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | TO | STL | FG% | 3PM | 3P% | FT% |
| 22-23 | 15 | 32.9 | 18.5 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 44.9 | 2.3 | 36.2 | 77.3 |
| 23-24 | 25 | 35.3 | 16.9 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 41.0 | 2.1 | 36.8 | 82.2 |
| 24-25 | 52 | 33.5 | 19.8 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 45.6 | 2.1 | 30.8 | 78.7 |
If there is any confusion, though, Shaedon Sharpe has the bona fides of an Alpha, as he demonstrated over a 4-game stretch this year (from 11/12 – 11/20). We’ll call it a mini-breakout! You can’t help but be knocked off kilter a bit by the production: 25.8 pts on 48% shooting, including 3.3 3 pm on a 3P% of 41.9%, 3.8 reb, 2.8 ast, & 1.5 stl.
More of this, please!
Much like with Avdija, consistency will need to be Shaedon’s hallmark if he is to become an All-Star, not just a mini or post-All-Star breakout.
Maybe Sharpe entirely breaks out as a Senior, in year 4, and he and Deni Avdija lead the Blazers back to the playoffs. Or perhaps it’s player 1b that does the breakdancing?
1b. Anfernee Simons – sleep on him, doubt him at your peril. I did!
Earlier in the year, in a rare moment of vulnerability for any NBA player, Anfernee conceded to The Athletic’s Jason Quick to be in the midst of “the hardest mental battle [he has]had in [his]career.”
“The root of his funk? Losing.”
And this was reflected in his play. Through his first 23 games, he averaged 17.2 pts, on 41% shooting, including 2.5 3 pm on a career low 3P% of 32.9%, 4.6 ast, 2.7 reb, & 0.9 stl. You’d have to rewind the tape to his 4th year in the league for such low numbers (17.3 pts, 3.9 ast, 2.6 reb, & 0.5 stl). Back then, it was a breakout that earned him his current contract (4 yrs/$100M), now an obvious regression.
But winning makes everything better!
Winning Time for the Portland Trail Blazers began on January 19th with their win over Chicago. For Simons, in the very next game against Miami. Starting with this contest, Anfernee Simons returned to his productive ways and reestablished himself as a potential franchise cornerstone.
From January 21st – March 30th (his season was cut a bit short), he averaged 20.7 pts on 43.3% shooting, including 3.3 3 pm on a 3P% of 36.5%, 4.7 ast vs. 1.8 TO, 2.7 reb, & 0.8 stl. Not quite at the same level as his career year in 23-24 (22.6 pts, 3.4 3 pm, 5.5 ast vs. 2.7 TO, 3.6 reb, & 0.5 stl), but close enough in proximation to confidently say Anfernee Simons’ career, much like Portland’s rebuild, is back on track. This is especially true given this was the 1st season he began the year as the PG Designate.
If at least two of Simons, Sharpe, &/or Avdija don’t become All-Stars, I will be “bewildered, befuddled, [&} bemused”!
The heights they reach as teammates will be determined by each of them fully delivering on their potential. These three and Toumani Camara will be the separators; they will have the biggest say in championship vs. playoff contention.
(P.S. It should go without saying that I do NOT think the Trail Blazers should trade Anfernee Simons. Let’s at least give him another season as the PG Designate before crossing this steel PDX bridge.)
I stand corrected
A couple of housekeeping items from my last article, A Most Excellent Trade Proposal For The Portland Trail Blazers And The Purple And Gold:
- Los Angeles has only 1 tradeable 1st round pick (2031 or 2032), not 2 after trading for Luka Doncic
- Even if LeBron James opts out with the intention of resigning (& I still firmly believe this to be the most likely scenario), this won’t create cap space for LA on a dollar-for-dollar basis. It will likely create some, but not enough to fully absorb DeAndre Ayton’s contract.
To make the numbers work, the Lakers would need to include one or both of the expiring contracts of Gabe Vincent &/or Maxi Kleber.
If I’m the Trail Blazers, I would also give Jarred Vanderbilt serious consideration, even though he has 3 years left on his deal (the 3rd being a player option) and is injury-prone. I mean, who wouldn’t want a Dennis Rodman in training!?
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