Thanksgiving is coming early this year.
A rivalry that typically happens in November lands in Oregon two months early — the Oregon-Oregon State football game.
The Pac-12 may only be Oregon State and Washington State now, but the Pacific Northwest is lined with rivalries this weekend. And while the circumstances of this early game are suboptimal for the Beavers, it doesn’t make this matchup any less exciting.
For Ducks and Beavers fans alike, this weekend’s game in Corvallis will likely be so raucous that it can be heard 30 minutes away in Eugene. Oregon is the favorite, but this isn’t to say Oregon State doesn’t have a chance. With how each team has played up to this point, anything can happen.
The expectations for the Ducks heading into the 2024 season were high, to say the least. Ranked third nationally, embarking on a new conference and heralding Dillon Gabriel as the quarterback, Oregon was expected to blow out its competition in the first few weeks. However, the Ducks have struggled in this realm. They’re still winning, but by smaller margins than they should be.
Against Boise State last weekend, Oregon was down by three at halftime and down by seven to start the fourth quarter. While there aren’t “buzzer beaters” in football, the Ducks’ field goal in the last two seconds to secure the win served the same purpose. Oregon’s lackluster offensive line and Gabriel getting sacked four times in the first half sure made it an exciting game for Broncos fans and a nail-biter for Ducks fans.
Assuming Oregon State has done its research, it’s possible this game will be just as close — if not closer — to Oregon’s past two matchups. And with the performance the Beavers have demonstrated in these past two weeks, there’s a chance it could hand the Ducks their first loss of the season.
This past weekend, Oregon State played its first “in-conference” game against San Diego State. Although the Beavers are technically still in the Pac-12, they’re playing their season with the Mountain West Conference. And the christening into the conference couldn’t have gone better for Oregon State, who shut out the Aztecs, 21-0. In contrast to the Oregon game, this matchup wasn’t the most exciting, with point production only in the first and fourth quarters.
The tandem of junior running back Anthony Hankerson and senior running back Jam Griffin showed up once again, clinching one touchdown each. The third belonged to junior tight end Bryce Caufield, who caught a 21-yard pass from redshirt junior quarterback Gevani McCoy.
McCoy was solid this past weekend, completing 16 for 26 and 181 yards, but still showed room for improvement — especially against a higher-caliber opponent in the Ducks. Gabriel, despite the overall offensive struggles against Boise State, completed 18 of 21 for 243 yards. Gabriel’s total yards thus far are more than double McCoy’s, and it’s only been two weeks. In the overall quarterback battle, Gabriel takes the lead, but teams are not solely their quarterbacks. And the offensive and defensive lines for the Beavers have been as advertised.
The Oregon State defense hasn’t been tested yet, and Gabriel will likely be the greatest test of the season. However, with the Beavers returning most of their defensive line — specifically in veterans Jaden Robinson and Skylar Thomas — who have experience in high-caliber games, they should be ready to go.
Oregon State’s defense has only given up an average of 7.5 points per game, 77 yards on the ground, and 168 in the air. Gabriel may be the defense’s biggest test to date, but the Oregon offensive line isn’t doing him any favors. If the Ducks’ offensive line hasn’t made any adjustments from the last two weeks, the Beavers should be able to lock them down well.
In recent history, Oregon has dominated the rivalry. The overall record is 67-51-10 in favor of the Ducks, and since 2000, they’ve won 16 of 24. But in the past four years, the record is tied at two apiece. In the future, it’s unlikely the rivalry will be as competitive as it is this year. Oregon is in a new conference with more money and more resources, and as each year goes by, it’s possible the scales will become more and more unbalanced.
The spread may be 16.5, but I think it will be closer than that. If Oregon State did its homework, and the Ducks keep playing like they have the last two weeks, the Beavers could gnaw their way to a closer game. However, Oregon will likely still win in Corvallis and maintain its undefeated record.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Oregon State 27
