Yes, I know that it’s still early in the Seattle Kraken’s 2023-24 season, but the first two months of the campaign have illuminated what has been an uncomfortable truth undercutting the team’s first few seasons of existence: they’re just not good enough.
I’m not one to resort to reactionary hot takes, but the worst thing to be in the NHL is one of the teams stuck in the mushy middle, a competitive purgatory of sorts. You’re not bad enough to secure a strong draft position but not good enough to go deep in the postseason consistently.
The Kraken now find themselves in this unfortunate conundrum. They’re on the outskirts of the Western Conference playoff picture but have committed a lot of cap space and term to players who won’t help them overcome this particular hurdle.
General manager Ron Francis and his team should have gone the rebuild route from the beginning, but it’s better late than never, I suppose. With that, let’s dive in.
Kraken Already Slipping in Western Conference Playoff Race
As of this writing (Dec. 3), the Kraken own an 8-11-6 record for 22 points over 25 games, three points behind the St. Louis Blues for the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference.
The Blues have two games in hand on the Kraken, as do the Arizona Coyotes and Nashville Predators (one game), who are both ahead of Seattle by points. The Wild are two points behind the Kraken but have three games in hand. The Edmonton Oilers got off to a terrible start to the season but have won six of nine games since hiring Kris Knoblauch as their new head coach on Nov. 12.
Given that over 50 games are remaining on the Kraken’s schedule, their fate is far from sealed in terms of qualifying for the 2024 NHL Playoffs. Still, recent history is not on their side, and their overall chances dwindle with every dropped point.
Around 75 percent of teams in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving have made the postseason in the salary cap era. The Kraken were on the right side of the Turkey Threshold (trademark pending) this year, but primarily due to having played two or more games than the teams on their tail.
When you account for the discrepancy in games played, the Kraken’s future becomes even murkier. The Kraken rank 27th in the NHL and 12th in the West by points percentage (PTS%) and only count five regulation wins and seven regulation-plus-overtime wins to their name (both 29th in the league).
Related: Seattle Kraken Not Finding Magic In 2023-24
As I mentioned before, dropping points could be the difference between sneaking into the playoffs and sitting on the outside looking in come springtime. The Kraken are tied for the most overtime and shootout losses in the league (six), which puts them on pace to eclipse the single-season NHL record of 18 (three different teams). Even winning half of those games would put the Kraken in a much more favorable position, so those shouldn’t be spun as better-than-nothing losses.
Gary Bettman has worked tirelessly to make parity the defining characteristic of the modern NHL landscape, so it’s no surprise that the Coyotes (first wildcard spot) and the Oilers (14th in the West) are separated by only seven points. The loser point will give the Kraken a chance at the playoffs, but a more realistic appraisal of their positioning shows that they’re much further from contention than the standings otherwise suggest.
Lack of Star Power Limits Kraken’s Ceiling
Without a legitimate star player, the Kraken will not do anything significant in the NHL playoffs. As things currently stand, the organization has few means to acquire one.
The San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, and the Columbus Blue Jackets have made it very unlikely that the Kraken can break into the top three of the draft lottery. That trio is clearly a tier below most of the current playoff outsiders, meaning that the top prospects will likely be gone by the time the Kraken pick (barring a surprising lottery win).
21-year-old center Matty Beniers – arguably the most disappointing Kraken player this season relative to expectations – is the player on the roster with the highest long-term potential. Yet, he’s far from the collection of elite difference-makers who have led their teams to Stanley Cups in recent memory.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were led by their core quartet of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy, three of which were first-round picks and two of which were top-three selections in their draft year.
The Colorado Avalanche’s 2021-22 Stanley Cup win featured the efforts of Nathan MacKinnon (first overall in 2013), Gabriel Landeskog (second overall in 2011), Cale Makar (fourth overall in 2017), and Mikko Rantanen (10th overall in 2015).
The Blackhawks of the 2010s (Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane) and the cap-era Pittsburgh Penguins (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) were both led by a pair of future Hall-of-Famers, all of whom were selected third or higher in their respective drafts.
The recent Stanley Cup title runs by the Blues and Vegas Golden Knights were both powered more so by deep lineups and hot streaks of goaltending rather than top-of-the-line talents, but those are outliers defying a clear trend in the cap era.
Kraken Roster Filled with Potential NHL Trade Bait
There’s some good news for general manager Ron Francis, however. The Kraken roster, as currently constructed, holds several players who could be dangled in the hopes of recouping a notable collection of assets in return.
Defenseman Vince Dunn has proven himself since signing a massive contract extension this past summer, tallying 19 points in 25 games this season. Unfortunately, he’s just turned 27, so any rewards reaped from a rebuild will arrive after his playing prime, and his $7.35 million average annual value (AAV) won’t be as big of a deterrent under the backdrop of a rising cap.
Jordan Eberle, Alex Wennberg, Brandon Tanev, Yanni Gourde, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Justin Schultz, Adam Larsson, and Brian Dumoulin represent a collection of veterans aged 29 or older, and whose contracts expire within the next two seasons. They can all contribute in the right roles and wouldn’t represent lengthy commitments to the teams acquiring their services.
In terms of promising players and non-NHL prospects, the Kraken have built a decent pipeline in a short amount of time, so they wouldn’t be starting from square one. Beniers, Eeli Tolvanen, and Tye Kartye have all made an impact at the NHL level and are still 24 years old or younger.
Elsewhere, Shane Wright, Ryker Evans, Jagger Firkus, Ty Nelson, and Eduard Sale have all performed well in their respective minor- and junior leagues as under-23 players. The present is middling, but the future doesn’t have to be.
Crucially, the Kraken own all of their first-round picks for the foreseeable future, so they wouldn’t be forced to contend because of owing another organization an unprotected selection. They also aren’t currently retaining any salary, opening up multiple slots to reduce otherwise unsavory cap hits in potential trades. The path is clear to pivot towards a rebuild; it’s up to the Kraken to walk down it now.
Kraken Fanbase Could Withstand Intentional Rebuild
Though the promise of one day reaching greater heights is alluring for executives weighing the decision to rebuild, there is some downside on the business side.
The Kraken rank in the bottom half of the league in attendance (using percentage of overall capacity) this season and other than their surprise appearance in the second round of the 2023 Playoffs, haven’t accomplished much over their three years of NHL membership.
The franchise ranks 23rd in wins (81) and 25th in PTS% (.481) since making their NHL debut in 2021-22. It’s not exactly the same level of success enjoyed by their expansion cousins in Vegas (seventh in wins and PTS% since 2021-22), who won the Stanley Cup last season – their sixth season of existence.
Fans in Seattle have waited a long time for the NHL to return to their city, so a few more losing seasons should not have that much of a negative impact on attendance or the long-term prosperity of the franchise. Die-hard fans are smart enough to recognize and accept a tear-down if it is well-managed and promises to usher in a brighter future, so let’s give it to them.
