The NBA season starts next week, and the Portland Trail Blazers are ready to excite the league. After trading away Damian Lillard, the longest-tenured Blazer is Anfernee Simons. While the team is green, the ceiling is high for this team. Let’s break down what the Blazers did this offseason and see if there will be a playoff run for this team in the future.
Replacing Production
As we know, the Blazers had a busy offseason of trades and acquisitions. Check out what was swapped:
Additions: Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, Robert Williams III, Malcolm Brogdon, and Scoot Henderson
Subtractions: Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson
Between Lillard, Nurk, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson, they accounted for the following stat line:
56.8 PPG / 17.6 RPG / 12.6 APG / 2.6 SPG / 1.7 BPG / 45.0%FG / 11.9 WS
Minus draftees Scoot and Camara, Ayton, Williams, and Brogdon provided the following last year:
40.9 PPG / 22.5 RPG / 6.8 APG / 1.9 SPG / 2.5 BPG / 60.6%FG / 15.8 WS
The Blazers need to replace 16 points, six assists, and 0.7 steals per game to recoup what they lost from the departures this offseason. By win shares, the Blazers have crushed that with the incoming players, gathering an additional 3.9 wins without including the production from Camara and Scoot. The shooting percentage increased significantly as well, up almost 16%. The inflation on the field goal shooting is because two of the incoming players are centers, and Robert Williams only dunks the ball, so look for that to fall with Scoot taking jumpers. Scoot can make up that difference while providing better defense than Lillard. Even if Scoot can reach the missing offensive numbers, I am confident that this team will be better defensively than last year. Whatever defensive improvements they will make can cover the offense they may lose.
Can Portland Make The Playoffs?
Last year, the Blazers went 33-49. According to the Vegas betting scene, the roundabout win total to get to the playoffs is 45 wins. The Western Conference has seven solid teams that could hit that win mark. I removed Houston, San Antonio, and Utah from the mix because they’re slated to each win under 36 games. The Nuggets, Suns, Golden State, Lakers, and Clippers are all slated to win over 46 games, so I removed them as well. I took the remaining seven teams, grabbed their projected depth chart, and stacked them against Portland’s lineup. Let’s review each to see how they stack up against Portland:
Portland Trail Blazers Projected Lineup:
Scoot Henderson – Anfernee Simons – Shaedon Sharpe – Jerami Grant – Deandre Ayton – (6th) Malcolm Brogdon
Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox – Kevin Huerter – Harrison Barnes – Keegan Murray – Domatas Sabonis – (6th) Malik Monk
While Fox is better than Scoot, I would take Simons over Huerter because Simons is a better playmaker, scoring more per game. I’ll give Portland the edge on the forwards because Sharpe will jump over Barnes, and Grant is more polished offensively than Murray. The center position could be a push, with both Sabonis and Ayton able to score 30 in a night. Sixth Man is a toss-up because both Monk and Brogdon provide similar stats. What also needs to be proven is the Kings’ total defense. Much like the Blazers, the Kings are a bottom-five defense, and they didn’t make any additions in the offseason to address it. Look for these two teams to drop 130 points on each other when they meet up. This matchup is a toss-up, but given Sacramento’s home crowd is elite, I’ll give the edge to the Kings.
New Orleans Pelicans: CJ McCollum – Brandon Ingram – Herbert Jones – Zion Williamson – Jonas Valanciunas – (6th) Trey Murphy III
New Orleans will put out a big lineup but needs more depth. Currently, I trust CJ over Scoot and give the edge to Ingram over Simons. As long as Zion stays healthy, few players could cover him, regardless of his height. Robert Williams could guard Zion, but he’s prone to foul trouble. Zion’s potential is better than Grant’s, but Sharpe’s athleticism wins me over Herb Jones. Valanciunas versus Ayton is easy for me; it’s Ayton. Both centers are “traditional” in that Valanciunas is a typical defensive center from the 90s who can hit a layup but will stand in the paint, and Ayton is a back-to-the-basket scorer with a ton of post moves to counter the defensive presence of Valanciunas. Trey Murphy III is a decent scorer, but Brogdon can also do the same and play above-average defense. Give me the slight edge to Portland because I’m betting Zion gets hurt again.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Conley – Anthony Edwards – Jaden McDaniels – Karl-Anthony Towns – Rudy Gobert – (6th) Kyle Anderson
Minnesota will be carried by Anthony Edwards this year. I can see him pushing for 30 points per game this year. Between Scoot and Simons, the pairing of Conley and Edwards is better. I’ll take Sharpe over McDaniels again because of Sharpe’s offense and athleticism. The pairing of Towns and Gobert didn’t work last year, but Ayton’s dated offense scares me here. While Valanciunas is similar to Gobert, Gobert is a better defender. Towns is more offensively complete than Grant and plays better defense as well. Kyle Anderson is more of a point forward but could provide better stats, so Brogdon is the better player here. Minnesota has the edge here, thanks precisely to Anthony Edwards and KAT, as long as the team can keep it together from a chemistry standpoint.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Josh Giddey – Luguentz Dort – Jalen Williams – Chet Holmgren – (6th) TBD
OKC is in a similar boat as Portland, where they are looking to their rookie to make an impact. On the guard front, SGA is undoubtedly the favorite over both Simons and Scoot. Giddey is just the topping on the guard crew, where he can get you a triple-double every night. Lu Dort is defensively better than Sharpe and Grant, but Portland forwards will have too much offensive firepower for him to deal with. I missed Jalen Williams, but I don’t see him making a giant leap to make a difference here. The most significant question mark for OKC is Chet’s performance. I’ve watched his preseason performances, and he has impressed me. I’m intrigued by how opposing centers will deal with him or if he takes more of a forward role. Ayton is too much of an established offensive center for me to take Chet over him. I will mention here that OKC has this guard, Vasilije Micic, that OKC acquired rights from Philadelphia. He’s a two-time EuroLeague Champion, Final Four MVP, and the EuroLeague MVP in 2021. He averaged 18.2 points per game during his MVP year, and I’m watching him to be their 6th man and maybe even a secret Rookie of the Year contender. Because of the uncertainty of OKC’s sixth man, I’m taking Portland over OKC.
Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic – Kyrie Irving – Grant Williams – Maxi Kleber – Dwight Powell – (6th) Tim Hardaway Jr.
Dallas has the best offensive backcourt in the league between Luka and Kyrie, so I don’t need to elaborate on why they won this matchup. Grant Williams comes over from the Celtics and may be able to contain Sharpe, but I’ll call that a push for now. Kleber and Powell have been with Dallas for a couple of years and need to improve. There are rumblings that they may not even start. Using them for this comparison, I’d easily take Grant and Ayton over them. Tim Hardaway Jr is one of those players that could get you 30 a couple of times throughout the year but is inconsistent. Brogdon is the opposite. Dallas being better than Portland entirely relies on how much Luka and Kyrie can do. I’m at a toss-up whether or not Portland can beat Dallas.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant (SUSP) – Marcus Smart – Desmond Bane – Jaren Jackson Jr – Steven Adams – (6th) Luke Kennard
Even after an appeal, Memphis guard Ja Morant is suspended for the first 25 games of the year. In his place, it’s assumed Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane would move up, and Jon Konchar would take over the SF spot. I’ll utilize Morant and Smart because they would play most of the season together. Morant is creeping into the top three conversations of best point guards in the league, and Smart is possibly the best on-ball defender. I’d take these two over Scoot and Simons. Bane versus Sharpe would be fun, given their playstyles are opposites. I would call a push here. J3 became one of the best 2-way players in the league and is clearly better than Jerami Grant. Steven Adams, I view as the same as Jonas Valanciunas, so give me Ayton over him. Luke Kennard had a resurgence last year, but he is a one-trick player who will go through a bunch of screens for a catch-and-shoot three. Brogdon is a more complete player than Kennard, so I’ll give him the edge. Given that Ja is missing the first 25 games of the year, I would take Portland over Memphis.
In case you lost count, I have Portland hanging around the 8th/9th seed. The West is absolutely stacked with great teams this year, which is why there is such a log jam between the 4th and 10th seeds. One injury or one trade can seriously shift the balance between these teams. Barring any injury setbacks, the Blazers improved as a team between the Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. While losing the face of the franchise is a bitter pill to swallow, the Blazers will improve that 33-49 record from last year to about 45-37. A 12-game turnaround seems like a lofty expectation, but they’ve progressed defensively enough to outweigh the offense loss of Dame. Remember, while they were one of the best offensive teams in the league last year, they were also the worst defensive team. If the offense can stay at or around the same level, and the defense can even be average, that’s an easy 5-10 wins in my book.
