Then there were two. After the initial round-robin group stage of the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off, Canada is set to take on the United States in the final at TD Garden in Boston on Thursday night (Feb. 20). The final will serve as a rematch following the Americans’ 3-1 win earlier in the tournament.
Though the event has been viewed as a casual tune-up for the NHL’s return to the Olympic stage next year (in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo), it has proven to be a competitive replacement for the league’s annual All-Star Game.
The four nations involved have played with pride and tenacity, usually reserved for the Stanley Cup playoffs or the Olympics. For NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, this can only be seen as a wild success and should heighten the anticipation for the league’s future World Cup events, though the blame for such a large gap between best-on-best events should also fall onto his shoulders.
With that in mind, let’s dive into how the United States and Canada got to the final, and highlight the major storylines heading into the championship game.
How the United States Got to the Final
The United States opened the tournament with a dominant 6-1 win against Finland, which showcased both their depth of attack (10 players had at least one point) and strength in net (Connor Hellebuyck stopped 20 of 21 shots).
The Americans then went into the lion’s den on Saturday night and took down Canada – their historical and geographical rivals – in Montreal. It was a tense, fight-filled affair set against the backdrop of recent political tensions between the two countries, and clinched a spot in the final for the U.S. before their third and final group game against Sweden.
It’s a good thing that the U.S. clinched beforehand because the team was forced to play short-handed due to a number of injuries. Samuel Ersson stopped 32 of 33 shots, and Sweden eked out a 2-1 win to finish third in the table.
It’s hard to glean much from the Americans’ performance given the circumstances, so they should be graded based on their first two outings.
How Canada Got to the Final
Like the U.S., Canada kicked off their tournament with a thrilling 4-3 overtime win over Sweden. Mitch Marner played the hero after the Swedes extinguished Canada’s 3-1 lead with a pair of goals early in the third period. Due to the 3-2-1-0 point system in use at the tournament, the non-regulation win put the Canadians in second place in the matchup with the Americans.
Canada took an early 1-0 lead before the U.S. scored two unanswered goals to take a 2-1 lead heading into the third period. The game was close until the end when Jake Guentzel scored an empty-netter to put a cap on the evening’s match-up. The loss put Canada under pressure before their third and final game against Finland, with anything but a win in regulation putting their place in the final in jeopardy.
The Canadians raced out to a three-goal lead in the first period and entered the final frame with a 4-0 lead. Finland made it close with three goals over the span of six minutes in the third, but Canada held strong and put the game away with an empty-net goal from none other than Sidney Crosby, who is putting in a bid to be named the MVP of the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Tournament MVP: Several Worthy Candidates for Canada and the U.S.
It’s easy to point to the scoring leaders in any discussions about tournament MVP so let’s start there.
Crosby (one goal and tournament-leading five points in three games), Connor McDavid (two goals and four points in three games), and Nathan MacKinnon (three goals in three games) are the clear frontrunners on the Canadian side. That trio were pinpointed as the team’s biggest stars before the tournament started, and all three have held up their end of the bargain.
For the U.S., Jack Eichel (four assists in three games), Jake Guentzel (three goals and four points in three games), or Zach Werenski (five assists in three games) could easily garner consideration for the honor. Yet, since no skater has pulled away from the pack, the favorite for the “player of the tournament” could be America’s Hellebuyck. He leads the tournament in save percentage (.957) and goals-against average (1.00), and conceded only a single goal to the star-studded Canadian attack.
In comparison, Canada’s Jordan Binnington has struggled with a .892 SV% through three games, and he’s had the second-best results among the tournament’s goalies, which shows how wide the gap has been.
A big performance in the final from any Canadian or American could sway the voting bloc in their favor, but it’s difficult to envision someone other than those five taking home the honor.
Key Storylines to Watch in Final of 2025 4 Nations Face-Off
With three fights in the first nine seconds of their first match-up of the tournament, emotions should once again be running high, with the stakes of the final not helping matters in that regard. Seeing a repeat of the opening seconds of the group stage game would be surprising as no coach will want their top players unavailable for five minutes (or more) just to settle some scores. Expect the players to channel their emotions through big hits and feisty board battles.
While the Americans gave Canada’s defensemen fits in the first game by disrupting their efforts at pushing the puck up ice, their top defender Cale Makar was out with an illness. Having him patrol the blue line gives head coach Jon Cooper a reliable and dynamic outlet from the back, and makes Canada much less susceptible to a heavy forecheck.
With the sheer number of elite players on either side, which country’s superstars step up could very well decide the game. MacKinnon, Crosby, and McDavid have each made a notable impact for the Canadians, while the U.S. has players scoring at a point-per-game clip or better.
Special teams could also play a role with the weapons being trotted out on the power play, striking fear into the hearts of the teams’ penalty-killers. The referees will be hesitant to make calls in what should be a close game, so capitalizing on the few opportunities either side might get is imperative.
| Team | Power Play % | Penalty Kill % |
| Canada | 33% | 100% |
| U.S. | 25% | 100% |
4 Nations Face-off Final Could Be One for the Ages
While Hellebuyck has been nearly impossible to beat behind the vaunted American attack, the presence of a healthy Makar is enough of an x-factor to push the Canadians over the line. I predict another close, physical affair with Canada coming out on top. Who do you think will emerge victorious?
Data courtesy of Elite Prospects and the NHL.
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