Don’t look now, but things have gone from bad to worse for the Seattle Kraken this season. Since I argued that the Kraken should pivot towards a rebuild last Monday (Dec. 4), the team has done nothing to dissuade me from that belief. In fact, Seattle lost all four of their games last week by a combined score of 13-6 to fall even further back of the playoff pace in the Western Conference.
Including last week’s results, the Kraken are now the proud owners of an eight-game losing streak – the longest such streak in the NHL – and have only won once in their last 10 games. They’ve been outscored 32-23 over that stretch and look nothing like the club that made waves around the league last season.
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Unsurprisingly, the Kraken now sit five points back of the Arizona Coyotes for the final wildcard slot, with the Coyotes also holding three games in hand on Seattle. The four teams between the two all have at least one game in hand on the Kraken, with the suddenly unbeatable Edmonton Oilers – winners of their last seven – doing their part to complicate the playoff picture even further after their dismal start to the campaign.
So, what’s been behind the Kraken’s lengthy losing streak? Let’s grit our teeth and dive into the underlying numbers, it’s not going to be pretty.
Kraken Offense Drying Up
Since the Kraken’s losing streak started with a 5-1 defeat at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks on Nov. 24, the team has only scored an average of 1.63 goals per game, last in the entire league over that span.
Almost all of the Kraken’s players have seen their individual scoring rates dip since last season, and only a handful of skaters have done much significance over this unfortunate stretch.
Jared McCann leads the team with four goals and five points over the last eight games, while Tye Kartye is the only other Kraken skater to score more than a single goal during the losing streak.
Forward Oliver Bjorkstrand has only scored a single goal over the eight games, but it’s not for a lack of trying. He’s fired 36 shots on goal in that time (averaging 4.5 per game) to lead the Kraken, but his finishing touch has vanished since starting the year with seven goals in 21 appearances.
It’s no surprise that the Kraken offense going cold has coincided with an injury to veteran forward Jaden Schwartz, as the 31-year-old is tied for second on the team in goal scoring with eight tallies in 23 games to go with 15 points (fourth).
The Kraken attack has never been thought of as particularly potent. They benefited from a sky-high shooting percentage (SH%) of 11.6% last season (second in the NHL), a conversion rate that was bound to regress.
That the team is firing at a league-low 8.2% this season is quite the extreme swing in results and should move closer to average in time, but it’s probably closer to the Kraken’s true talent level than what happened last season.
Kraken Goaltenders Performing Below Average
I hate picking on the Kraken’s goaltenders since I feel as though I’ve done so since day one, but their play in the crease has certainly not done Seattle any favors in their eight-game winless streak.
Of the 73 goaltenders to have played at least one game since Nov. 20, the Kraken’s tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord rank 60th and 67th respectively in save percentage (SV%), and 68th and 62nd respectively in goals saved above expected (GSAx).
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It’s not as though the Kraken are playing poor defense in front of their goalies, either. Since Nov. 20, the Kraken ranked fourth in shots against per-60-minutes (SA/60), seventh in expected goals against per-60 (xGA/60), and fifth in scoring chances against per-60 (SCA/60) in all situations.
It’s a very small sample of games to be sure, but that is not the statistical profile of a team that should be giving up goals by the boatload. In fact, they rank fourth in SA/60, sixth in xGA/60, and third in SCA/60 for the year.
Four goaltenders have suited up for the Kraken since their NHL debut in 2021-22, with each playing at least 25 games for the franchise: Grubauer, Daccord, Chris Driedger, and Martin Jones.
None of that quartet own a SV% greater than .899 over their tenures in Seattle, offering a clear but depressing snapshot of the team’s fortunes in the crease over the past three seasons.
Grubauer was recently placed on injured reserve, with Driedger earning a recall from the American Hockey League’s Coachella Valley Firebirds. The veteran netminder posted a .916 SV% in 15 games in the AHL, but it remains to be seen whether he can parlay that solid display into a similarly stout showing at the NHL level. If not, expect the Kraken to fall out of the playoff race by New Year’s Eve (I’m only partly joking).
Kraken Getting Buried By Slow Starts
During the eight-game losing streak, the Kraken have struggled to establish early leads and allow the momentum to carry them to victory.
Seattle has failed to score first in each of their losses and only managed to equalize at either 1-1 or 2-2 on two occasions. They’ve also been outscored 10-2 in first periods over the last eight games, regularly putting themselves in a hole that’s often difficult to overcome mentally in the NHL.
Of the Kraken’s eight losses, only two were by more than two goals. Four defeats were by only a single goal, and two came after regulation time. Scoring first offers no guarantee of winning, but it sure helps to be playing downhill for most of the game rather than uphill from the outset.
The Kraken have played their opponents fairly even beyond the first (outscored 22-21), but the early holes have proven too costly. They’ve generally been unimpressive whether they score first or not, and there’s no statistical evidence to suggest that the first goal is worth more than any other goal, but it sure doesn’t help a team’s mentality.
Kraken’s 2023-24 Season Spiraling Out of Control
The Kraken face a daunting stretch of games to end 2023, which could effectively put the nail in the coffin on their playoff hopes.
Matchups against the Florida Panthers (once), Los Angeles Kings (twice), Dallas Stars (once), and Vegas Golden Knights (once) make up five of their next nine games, with those four opponents all sitting within the top 10 of the league standings by points percentage (PTS%).
With how the rest of the Western Conference playoff picture is shaping up, the Kraken can’t afford to drop many more points. Unfortunately, their recent performance and injury troubles do not inspire much confidence in their ability to turn their season around. It’s a shame, given the team’s magical 2022-23 campaign, but sometimes you just have to face the music.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
