The Portland Trail Blazers are running out of time.
With just 13 games left in the 2024-25 NBA season, the Trail Blazers’ 2025 Play-In Tournament odds are decreasing. And while a two-game winning streak has kept Rip City in the mix, they have ground to make up if the postseason is really the goal.
As the regular season winds down, Portland sits 12th in the West at 30-39. The Blazers are three games behind the Dallas Mavericks, who are No. 10—the cutoff for Play-In eligibility—and they’re two games back of the No. 11 Phoenix Suns.
The Blazers weren’t supposed to be here because, frankly, they were supposed to tank. Conversely, the Suns weren’t supposed to be here because they were supposed to be good. Great, even. And yet, here we are—one team exceeding expectations, the other falling short.
If the Blazers want to crash the Play-In party, set to begin April 15, they’ll have to battle through a brutal final stretch.
Can they pull it off? Let’s break it down.
A Tough Road Ahead
Portland has the NBA’s eighth-hardest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon. That’s a tough reality for a team needing a late-season surge.
The Suns’ path, however, is even rougher.
Sitting at 32-37, Phoenix owns the league’s most difficult schedule the rest of the way. If things really go downhill over the next few weeks, the makeup of the Suns’ roster could look drastically different next season, most notably with a replacement for Kevin Durant.
Again, though, speaking more to the now of it all, Portland’s closing stretch includes the West-favorite Oklahoma City Thunder, defending West champion Denver Nuggets, reigning NBA champion Boston Celtics, and a surging Memphis Grizzlies squad.
Meanwhile, Dallas—the team Portland needs to catch—has the 15th-toughest schedule.
That’s not exactly great news for the Blazers. And it’s not great for anyone betting on Portland’s presence in the 2025 Play-In.
Playoff Odds
According to Basketball-Reference.com, the Blazers have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs. The Suns’ odds are slightly better, but their grueling schedule could drag them down.
Personally? I’d bet on Phoenix slipping further than Portland climbing.
The big question is if Portland can catch the Mavericks—not the Suns.
Key Factors
Health & Leadership – Portland’s core players must stay on the floor for three weeks. STAYING HEALTHY is an absolute must. Injuries have plagued this team all year, and one more key absence could be a death knell for their Play-In chances.
Defensive Consistency – Portland’s defense has been hit-or-miss, but when the team wins, it’s because core pieces lock in on that end. Take Matisse Thybulle’s game-saving block against Toronto, for example. At large, it was not a well-executed defensive possession. But a great defensive player made a great defensive play and saved a game. That’s the kind of effort the Blazers need night in and night out. And it’s what might continue to earn them wins down the stretch.
The Final Stretch
With just a handful of games left, the Trail Blazers are at a crossroads. Their postseason dream is alive, but just barely. And after competing hard all year, tanking with three weeks left isn’t an option—not with the No. 1 odds so far away, and not after GM Joe Cronin made it clear this team deserved a shot at the Play-In after a silent trade deadline.
Overall, the Play-In Tournament was designed for teams like Portland. That’s important to remember.
The Play-In was made for scrappy, competitive squads on the outside looking in with wide eyes for competition to sway them away from tanking. And while it’s a long shot for Portland, that’s precisely why this format exists. Because a team that forewent tanking
Now, it’s up to the Blazers to prove they belong.
Thirteen games to go.
. And go, Blazers 
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