What Went Wrong For The Seattle Kraken In 2023-24?

Though the Seattle Kraken had watched their already slim playoff hopes dwindle to nearly zero in recent weeks, last week’s emphatic 5-2 loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings eliminated them from playoff contention with more than a week remaining in the 2023-24 regular season.

Given that the Kraken set regular-season franchise records in 2022-23 for wins (46), points (100), and team goals scored (289), that they are on pace to undershoot those marks by a significant margin this season can only be interpreted as a massive disappointment.

Through 77 games, Seattle’s record is 33-31-13. They have scored 207 goals, which puts them on pace to finish with 84 points and 220 goals scored, totals that aptly demonstrate the degree of regression compared to last season.

Though the rest of the season is tinged with a dour note, the organization’s future remains bright due to a blossoming prospect pool that looks set to add a top-10 pick in this year’s draft. I also recently made my argument for why the Kraken should use the rest of the season to build for the 2024-25 campaign, and I offered several storylines for fans to follow as the regular season winds down. A playoff berth is no longer at stake, but what happens over the final handful of games still carries weight heading into next season.

So, what went wrong for the Kraken? Was it goaltending? Special teams? Shooting luck? Consider this to be a partial revisitation of my pre-season predictions, as nearly all of the topics I addressed were directly linked to the team’s fortunes this season. With that, let’s dive in.

Grubauer Underperforms In Net…Again

Stop me if you’ve read this headline before: Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer once again struggled in the crease and contributed to the team’s underwhelming regular-season showing. That might be throwing too much blame in his direction, given that he’s only made 34 appearances this season, but it’s not an exaggeration to say that his play has left much to be desired.

Of the 101 goalies to have played at least ten games since the start of the 2021-22 season (when Grubauer joined the Kraken), he’s ranked 84th in save percentage/SV% (.894), 50th in goals-against average/GAA (2.98), and 99th in goals saved above expected/GSAx (-26.6). 

I should note that the 2023-24 campaign has likely been the best of his Kraken career. Among goalies who have played in 10 games this season, he ranks 42nd in SV% (.901), 27th in GAA (2.81), and 45th in GSAx (plus-1.95). That’s not exactly a high bar to clear, given the disastrous start to his tenure in Seattle, but it’s only fair to give some credit where it’s due.

Any improvements are welcome, but on the whole, those are unacceptable numbers for any NHL goalie, particularly for a netminder with the 10th-highest active cap hit at $5.9 million.

If it weren’t for the sudden emergence of Joey Daccord as a legitimate NHL starter in the wake of Grubauer’s early-season injury, the Kraken would likely have been out of contention for a playoff spot well before last week.

The 27-year-old journeyman netminder had only made 19 NHL appearances before this season but has played 47 games for the Kraken and almost single-handedly dragged them to the postseason.

Among qualified goalies (minimum ten games played), Daccord ranks seventh in SV% (.918) and eighth in both GAA (2.42) and in GSAx (plus-19.5). For only $1.2 million against the cap through the 2024-25 season, there isn’t a better bargain in the NHL at the moment.

Goalies have flitted in and out of NHL history with memorable – but short-lived – runs of success, and Daccord will have to prove he’s more than just the latest one-hit wonder. If he can recreate this year’s performance while tacking on an additional 10-15 starts as the nominal starter from the get-go, the Kraken could realistically challenge for a playoff spot in 2024-25.

Kraken’s Offense Takes a Hit from 2022-23 to 2023-24

By far, the biggest factor in the Kraken stumbling this season is that their top skaters have seen a drop-off in production across the board. Even with a few games still to play, the difference in scoring and conversion rate from 2022-23 to 2023-24 is very apparent.

The biggest culprits in the Kraken’s regression from 3.52 to 2.65 goals per game are Jared McCann, Matty Beniers, and Eeli Tolvanen. While some of the other names featured on the table haven’t scored nearly as many goals as last season, those three have seen their SH% plummet. McCann and Beniers, in particular, ranked first and second in team scoring last season, so their regression has robbed the Kraken of their main offensive weapons.

Notably, the Kraken also lost winger Daniel Sprong to free agency (Detroit Red Wings), who was tied for third on the team in goals (21) but was also one of the NHL’s most efficient scorers in all situations. Sprong’s 1.67 goals (16th) and 3.66 points per-60-minutes (12th) both ranked in the top 20 among all qualified skaters (100 minutes played). The winger’s impact largely went unreplaced in the offseason as the team banked on internal improvement from its key players.

One of the more underrated absences this season has been that of winger Andre Burakovsky. The 29-year-old has only played in 93 of the Kraken’s 159 games over the past two seasons due to an extensive list of injuries and having to undergo two unrelated surgeries in the past 12 months. He’s only tallied seven goals and 16 points in the 44 games he’s played this season, both of which would be the lowest totals since his rookie season in 2014-15.

While Burakovsky’s counting numbers have taken an understandable hit as he gets back up to speed, it’s not for a lack of trying. He’s generating shots and chances at some of the highest rates of his career in all situations but just has not gotten the puck luck to match.

Burakovsky’s shooting percentage is the lowest of his career (8.9%), which suggests he’s due to regress towards his career clip of 14%. In fact, he’s scored five goals in 15 games since the trade deadline (an 82-game pace of 27 goals) and looks to be regaining some sense of his old self finally. 

It’s safe to say that the team’s offense would look much different with a healthy Burakovsky lining up regularly, but that shouldn’t excuse the drop-off, especially when he barely played in half of the Kraken’s games last season.

Kraken Struggle in Away Games After Strong Road Showings in 2022-23

One of the more under-discussed trends when it comes to the Kraken’s performance compared to last year is the discrepancy in their home and road splits. Contrary to popular thinking, the Kraken actually played better away from home last season and managed to upset the Colorado Avalanche in Round One of the 2023 NHL Playoffs despite being the lower seed.

The Kraken finished with a 26-11-4 record on the road in 2022-23 (sixth in the NHL by points percentage – PTS%) while only going 20-17-4 at home (21st by PTS%). This season, they’ve gone 16-15-7 (15th by PTS%) in away games and have gone 17-17-6 at home (25th by PTS%).

The Kraken were able to overcome a mediocre home record and pick up crucial points on the road. Their prowess away from home could not be maintained this season, and they could not make up for a relatively mediocre record in home games.

Kraken’s Lengthy Losing Streaks Ruined Hopes of Positive Momentum

Starting with a four-game losing streak to kick off the 2023-24 season, the Kraken have struggled to gather and maintain much momentum in the winning column this season.

The opening slide was the first of six losing streaks of three games or more this season and the first of four of four games or more. The team also posted a pair of eight-game losing streaks (sandwiching a nine-game winning streak of their own), which effectively knocked them out of playoff contention by late March.

The Kraken’s winning streak put them in a tie for the second and final Western Conference wildcard spot as well as one point back of third place in the Pacific Division with a record of 19-14-9 on January 13th.

The Kraken then proceeded to win only nine of their next 28 games between January 14th and March 25th, including a pair of losses to the Vegas Golden Knights (currently occupying a wildcard place) to put a second-consecutive appearance in the playoffs well out of reach.

While recognizing that the team’s true ability was masked by unsustainable shooting and losing streaks are more of a symptom than a cause, it’s fair to say that the Kraken did themselves no favors. Seven of the 16 games, which were encompassed by the two eight-game losing streaks, were decided by a single goal, and more favorable puck luck combined with greater fortitude could have made the difference down the stretch.

2024-25 Season Could Be Foundational for Kraken’s Stanley Cup Quest

In spite of the frustration and disappointment underlining the 2023-24 season for both the Kraken organization and fan base, better times lie ahead.

A rapidly improving prospect pool promises to inject the roster with youthful exuberance and could welcome another top talent in this summer’s draft.

The Kraken’s American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate in the Coachella Valley Firebirds is second only to the Hershey Bears in total regular-season wins over the past two seasons, and another extended run in the Calder Cup Playoffslooks to be in store. 

Look for some of the Firebirds’ top players, Shane Wright, Ryker Evans, Ryan Winterton, Logan Morrison, and Ville Ottavainen, to be featured regularly for the Kraken next season, in addition to any NHL games they may get prior to the start of the AHL postseason.

While much of the roster remains under contract through to next season, a number of veteran players are scheduled to hit free agency during the 2025 and 2026 offseasons and could initiate a transformative period for the franchise.

Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.