Cal Raleigh didn’t just hit two home runs on Sunday.
The Big Dumper re-wrote the record books before the second inning even came to a close.
Raleigh tied the all-time single-season home run record for a catcher at 48, in his first at-bat, in front of the Seattle Mariners home crowd. Then, he followed it up by crushing No. 49 on the year in the second frame, en route to an eventual 11-4 home win over the Oakland Athletics.
By the time the dust had settled, the 28-year-old backstop had carved his name in stone above the greatest hitter at his position in MLB history.
And yet, there are a few more ghosts he’s chasing—and at least one hometown legend he should pass before the year comes to a close.
Calculating The Pace
Raleigh’s 2025 home run pace is historic.
Through 128 team games, Raleigh has hit 49 home runs. Assuming he passes 50 before the calendar flips, he’s already earned legend status. But looking at the bigger picture, his current pace breaks down to the following projection for the entire season:
- 49 HR ÷ 128 games = 0.383 HR per game
- 0.383 HR per game × 162 total games = ~62 projected HRs
If Raleigh continues at the same clip, he is on track to match Aaron Judge’s American League record of 62, set in 2022.
Projections are never guarantees. Injuries, rest days, and streaks can all change the outcome. But the math provides a clear benchmark for where Raleigh stands. And where he stands is among the all-time greatest hitters to ever do it.
How Cal’s Year Compares To The Greats
Here is how Raleigh’s production through 128 team games compares with some of the most famous home run chases of all time:
- Ken Griffey Jr. (1997):
- 40 HRs through 128 games
- Finished with 56 (Franchise Record)
- Raleigh is outpacing by nine
- Ken Griffey Jr. (1998):
- 42 HRs through 128 games,
- Finished with 56 (Franchise Record)
- Raleigh is outpacing by seven.
- Barry Bonds (2001):
- 55 HRs through 128 games
- Finished with 73 (MLB record)
- Raleigh underpacing Bonds by six
- Aaron Judge (2022):
- 49 HRs through 128 games,
- Finished with 62 (AL record)
- Raleigh is pacing Judge exactly to finish with 62 HRs
Home Runs Through 128 Games + Final Results + Cal Raleigh Projection
Why Catcher Context Matters
Javy López’s 48 homers in 2003 stood as the top mark for catchers for more than two decades.
On Sunday, Raleigh erased it in a matter of innings, and he did it in just 128 total games.
Catching has long been viewed as the most physically demanding position in baseball—one that often saps offensive numbers.
To hit with this kind of power while logging the grind of a full season behind the plate shows just how rare Raleigh’s season is.
Franchise History In Sight
Seattle’s own high bar has always been Griffey’s 56-homer campaigns in 1997 and 1998.
That mark, once thought untouchable, is now directly in Raleigh’s sights.
Even with a modest pace the rest of the way, Griffey’s team record is likely to fall. And then from there, the conversation shifts to whether Raleigh can chase down Judge’s 62…or if everything breaks right, whether he can sniff a 70-burger for the year.
Keeping Perspective
It’s tempting to let the imagination run wild, as we’ve already done. Mariners fans are watching something unique, and thinking about names like Griffey, Judge, and, yes, Bonds, can be fun.
But it’s important to realize that if Raleigh can’t pass Bonds for the all-time record (73) or Judge for the AL record (62), his season is already in rare air. As of Sunday, Raleigh has surpassed López for the all-time home-run record among catchers. And he did it in August.
No matter where the final number lands, Dump has delivered one of the most thrilling, MVP-caliber seasons in Mariners history.
Will he win AL MVP? Raleigh sits behind Judge, the favorite, and the Yankees sit half a game ahead of Seattle entering the Monday, Aug. 25 slate.
Nothing is guaranteed. But with a strong finish to the year, Cal’s odds will be worth tracking—along with his home-run pace against the game’s best hitters of all-time.
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