The Seattle Kraken, coming off of a week filled with matchups carrying significant implications for the Western Conference playoff race, have reached the quarter-mark of the 2023-24 season. The Kraken own a record of 8-9-5 through 22 games, holding a slim one-point lead in the hunt for the final wildcard slot in the West.
Despite occupying a playoff spot at the time of this writing, Seattle’s .477 points percentage (PTS%) and minus-16 goal differential (GD) tell a different story. They sit 23rd in PTS% and 28th in GD, boasting a profile more indicative of a lottery team rather than a postseason hopeful. Compared to their 15-5-3 record (.717 PTS%) and plus-17 GD on Dec.1 of last season, this campaign has been thoroughly underwhelming.
Fortunately, the barren wasteland that is the Pacific Division still gives the Kraken a fighting chance in the playoff race. According to Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule (SOS) metric, they own one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league according to opponent PTS%. The team is by no means out of the woods, but there is still some hope to climb out of their current predicament.
With the Kraken’s place within the current NHL landscape plainly laid out, let’s dive into the biggest surprises and disappointments of the season so far.
Biggest Disappointment: Matty Beniers
Can you say sophomore slump? After winning the 2022-23 Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie due to a 24-goal, 57-point campaign, 21-year-old center Matty Beniers entered the 2023-24 season with heightened expectations. With a nod to the growing pains inherent to life, as a young player still establishing himself in the league, his early slump has robbed the Kraken of one of its most reliable scorers.
Through 22 games, Beniers has only scored three goals and 10 points as well as posting a gaudy minus-15 plus-minus rating. The statistic has its limitations, but there’s something to be gleaned from such extreme results when there are only four players who have posted a worse rating, and three of them play for the history-chasing San Jose Sharks.
Related: 3 Key Seattle Kraken Players Struggling To Start 2023-24 – Will They Bounce Back?
Beniers’ issues are two-fold: neither he nor his line-mates are converting on their opportunities (particularly at five-on-five), and his underlying numbers have dipped to coincide with his reduced production.
Beniers has yet to score at five-on-five this season after doing so 17 times in 2022-23, good for second on the team. Further, his on-ice shooting percentage (OiSH%) – which accounts for the finishing of both him and his line-mates – is hovering at 4.35%, less than half of last year’s clip of 11.9%. If that regresses to something approaching last year’s ratio, his scoring totals should rise across the board.
It should be noted that Beniers is also generating shots, expected goals, and scoring chances at lower rates than last season. He’s both suffering from absurdly poor puck luck but also not doing himself any favors when it comes to increasing his chances of scoring. If the Kraken are going to turn their season around, the reversal must start with Beniers finding his scoring touch.
Biggest Surprise: The Kraken Power Play
The biggest question facing the Kraken following their expansion draft in the summer of 2021 was how the team would generate offense. The protection rules combined with more cautious general managers meant that Seattle could not gather the same caliber of scoring talent as their expansion cousins in the Vegas Golden Knights. Unsurprisingly, the team finished 28th in goals per game (2.6) and 29th in powerplay efficiency (14.6%), offering up clear areas of improvement.
Related: Seattle Kraken Not Finding Magic In 2023-24
An injection of talent via the draft and free agency helped the Kraken jump up to fourth (goals) and 21st (power play) in Year Two, but they still sat in the bottom-half with the man-advantage. This season, that trend has been reversed.
The Kraken are only scoring 2.77 goals per game (26th), but their power play has climbed to eighth with a 23.5% conversion rate. Since the team is 26th in five-on-five goals per-60-minutes, it’s important to figure out if the early powerplay success will last.
| Statistic (Per-60-Minutes) | Kraken | Rank |
| Shots | 42.6 | 30th |
| Expected Goals | 6.4 | 30th |
| Scoring Chances | 53.8 | 26th |
| High-Danger Chances | 20.8 | 26th |
| Goals | 8.1 | 13th |
Well, so much for the good news. Judging by their underlying profile, the Kraken are running off a bit of good fortune when it comes to finishing. They rank bottom-10 in every meaningful category except for the one that matters most – goals. This is a team screaming out for some more offensive talent, with an above-average playmaker or finisher firmly on top of general manager Ron Francis’ wish list.
The offseason departure of winger Daniel Sprong – now of the Detroit Red Wings – cannot be overstated. He finished second on the team in powerplay goals (six) despite only playing 66 games on the year. In fact, he finished 35th in goals per-60 among all qualified skaters (minimum 50 powerplay minutes) last season, making efficient work of his limited usage (238th in cumulative time-on-ice with the man-advantage).
In addition, Kraken winger Andre Burakovsky has been limited to only six games this season while recovering from surgery. He finished 40th in assists per-60 and 29th in points per-60 among qualified skaters on the power play last season, and it’s clear that his incisive vision and fluid skating are sorely missed by the Kraken in all situations. Once he returns, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kraken’s underlying metrics improve immediately.
Other Kraken Surprises and Disappointments
Beyond Beniers’ early slump and a hot power play, the following represent the Kraken’s other notable storylines to start this season:
- Surprise: Winger Eeli Tolvanen has five goals and 15 points in 22 games this year (19-goal, 56-point pace) after scoring at a 27-goal, 46-point pace in 48 games after being claimed off of waivers last season
- Surprise: Winger Oliver Bjorkstrand leads the team in scoring with 19 points in 22 games, representing an 82-game pace of 26 goals and 71 points after tallying 20 goals and 45 points in 81 games last season
- Disappointment: Goaltender Phillip Grubauer owns an .885 save percentage (SV%) through 12 games, the lowest mark of his three-year Kraken tenure
- Disappointment: The Kraken penalty kill once again ranks in the bottom-third of the league with a 73.9% kill-rate (26th)
Kraken Struggling to Build off Success of 2023-24 Season
Though the Kraken have not been getting the most favorable puck luck this season, there’s no doubt that the team has not capitalized on the unexpected successes of the 2022-23 campaign.
They sit outside of the playoffs by PTS% and are being pursued by a number of teams with multiple games in hand. They have also watched as the Vancouver Canucks, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, and Arizona Coyotes make significant strides compared to last season. That’s not to mention an Edmonton Oilers club who have shown signs of life since making a coaching change.
The Western Conference – while still a tire fire at the bottom – is becoming much more competitive, and the margin for error is slimmer than ever. The Kraken are by no means past the point of no return – there are 60 games remaining after all – but the clock is ticking.
Data courtesy of MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
