Injury news rocked the NBA on Thursday when the San Antonio Spurs announced that Victor Wembanyama will miss the rest of the season with deep vein thrombosis—a form of blood clot—in his right shoulder.
First and foremost, everyone wishes Wemby a successful recovery.
Nobody should ever wish for injuries, and blood clots add an intensity beyond your average shoulder injury. All anyone should want, for both Wembanyama and, really, for the game of basketball, is for the 21-year-old to get healthy, put this behind him, and fulfill a long career.
Of course, there is an immediate league-wide fallout we can’t ignore. The 2024-25 season doesn’t end with Wemby, meaning Defensive Player of the Year is suddenly up for grabs, and it means the Spurs’ short-term direction has shifted.
Also, for a team like the Portland Trail Blazers, it means a split in the road between the Play-In Tournament and the Draft Lottery just became more complicated to navigate.
Lottery Odds vs. Postseason Odds
The following odds can be taken with a grain of salt, as they don’t reflect Wembanyama’s absence. These were the percentages as of Thursday morning.
However, it’s essential to see where Portland stood at that point because this group that general manager Joe Cronin already said should shoot for the Play-In Tournament, even before Wembanyama’s season-ending health condition.
2025 NBA Playoff Odds
Portland Trail Blazers Playoff Odds: 0.1%
San Antonio Spurs Playoff Odds: 2.8%
2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Tankathon.com, 2/20/2025
Portland Trail Blazers No. 1 Pick Odds: 4.5%
San Antonio Spurs No. 1 Pick Odds: 3.0%
‘Go Guys, Go Win’
Following Portland’s silent trade deadline, Cronin said the following:
“I think it would be unfair to take [a shot at the Play-In]away from them. For me, I’m so proud and so excited about these guys, that the sky is the limit.”
Cronin continued: “Go guys, go win, let’s see what you can do, and I’m here to support it.”
Go guys.
Go win.
Let’s see what you can do.
Cronin was clear that the pre-deadline hot streak wasn’t the influence behind the quiet deadline. The market was soft, perhaps non-existent for Portland’s assets. And in the aftermath, Cronin stated he was playing to win, not tank.
Current Standings
The odds above were before Wembanyama’s health scare was announced. However, the standings below reflect current records following Portland’s 110-102 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday.
ESPN.com. 2/20/205
What Wembanyama’s Absence Means
The Spurs shouldn’t have any interest in the postseason. Their recent De’Aaron Fox addition might trick some into thinking they should shoot for the stars, but San Antonio’s front office knows not to rush the process.
As a result, we should see the Spurs’ lottery odds increase significantly as the year winds down, while their Play-In odds drop drastically to zero percent.
That means for Portland, you have another major competitor for a top draft pick. It also means you have one less contender for a spot in the Play-In.
In most years, the choice here would be obvious. You avoid the tank, you shoot for the Play-In, and the NBA feels justified in its attempt to reduce tanking.
But there’s a change in the approach when you have a projected top three, which are Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, and Cooper Flagg, waiting for you. The temptation to tank can be too great, even with a spot in the postseason on the line.
What should the Blazers do?
The Tank Is Off
If Cronin was willing to lean on a slim postseason chance coming out of the deadline, he and the whole squad better be fully on board now.
Despite Flagg and Co. being on the board come June, Portland likely played itself out of the top-three odds even before the Wemby shutdown.
Now that Wembanyama is out, the Spurs have become another competitor for top odds while eliminating themselves as a contender for the Play-In.
In all odds, Portland still misses the postseason. The Phoenix Suns, as dysfunctional as they may be, present as a more likely Play-In option than Portland at this point. But like Cronin said: “Let’s see what you can do.”
With less than two months to go, this is the time for Portland’s “assets” to shine not on the trade block but during the post-deadline stretch—one where a key competitor in the Spurs might be out.
Let’s see what this group can do.
Seven weeks until the Play-In.
