The Seattle Kraken concluded Week Eight of the NHL season with a 7-5 comeback win against the slumping New York Rangers. The high-scoring victory boosted the team’s record to 14-14-1 on the season and improved their points percentage (PTS%) to .500.
More importantly, the Kraken improved to 3-2-0 in the five games since Vince Dunn, the team’s highest-paid player and top defenseman, returned from an injury that cost him much of the first quarter of the season.
Brandon Montour (19 points in 29 games) and Ryker Evans (16 points in 27 games) have done their best to pick up the slack in the meantime, but Dunn’s absence has been felt strongly. Dunn has posted two goals, four assists, and six points in his first five games back in the lineup and owns a stat line of three goals and six assists (nine points) through nine games this season.
The Canadian’s presence on the ice and importance to the Kraken’s success cannot be understated. He appeared in four of the team’s first five games of the season, in which they went 3-1-0 before he was sidelined indefinitely. In total, the team has gone 6-3-0 when he’s played and 8-11-1 when he has not. There are a number of other factors at work in facilitating that record, but none more so than Dunn’s health.
Dunn a Workhorse in All Situations
If Dunn was merely a one-dimensional rearguard deployed solely on the power play, then the fallout from his absence could be mitigated without much hassle. Rather, the eight-year NHL veteran is a regular fixture in all situations, albeit used very sparingly on the penalty kill.
Dunn is second among the team’s defenders in average ice time (ATOI) at even strength (18:19 minutes per game) and on the power play (2:13), and third in all situations (20:59). He’s led the team with 22:43 minutes per game since making his return on Nov. 30., showing little to no rust in the aftermath of his lengthy layoff.
Montour and Evans, in particular, saw a bump in their respective workloads due to Dunn’s injury. Montour went from an already heavy usage of 23:23 minutes per game in the first five games of the season to 23:48 minutes per game prior to his return. Evans went from 16:04 over the first five games to 22:08 per game, quickly earning the trust of new head coach Dave Bylsma, though he’s dropped to averaging under 18 minutes over his last three games.
Having all three healthy gives the Kraken a capable puck-moving triumvirate on the back-end which is complemented by responsible types in Will Borgen, Jamie Oleksiak, and Adam Larsson. Seattle trots out a well-rounded blue line whose ability gets minimized because of the shaky goaltending from Philipp Grubauer (.870 save percentage in 10 games) and a lack of elite firepower up top.
Scoring totals only tell part of the story when it comes to a player’s overall impact. Dunn is obviously productive (13th among all NHL defenders in points per game since 2022-23), but his value goes beyond the box score.
Of Kraken defenders to play at least five games this season, Dunn ranks first in terms of on-ice share of expected goals/xGF (52.6%), scoring chances/SCF (52.3%), and high-danger chances/HDCF (55%) at 5-on-5. Those percentages are driven by Dunn ranking first or second on the team’s blue line in xGF, SCF, and HDCF generated per-60-minutes.
Dunn is no slouch defensively either, as his corresponding defensive rates (other than his rate of high-danger chances allowed) rank first among the team’s defensemen.
The Kraken are running sub-50% shares in the aforementioned categories without Dunn on the ice, representing a notable swing in his on-off ice numbers. The discrepancy speaks to his value to the organization and goes some way in explaining the team’s struggles in his absence.
Bylsma has most often paired Dunn with Larsson in what has functioned as the team’s top pair at even strength while averaging 14:27 minutes per game together. They rank third or better in shot- and chance share among the team’s eight most-commonly-used defensive combinations (minimum 50 minutes played) and have spearheaded the Kraken’s respectable six-man unit on the blue line.
As Dunn Goes, so Do the Kraken
For all of the early positive returns on the Montour contract and the welcome development of Evans, no skater is more integral to the Kraken’s playoff hopes than Dunn. His evasiveness, assertive puck-carrying, and crisp passing help facilitate an otherwise subdued Kraken attack and allows Bylsma to trot out three defensive pairs with at least one proven puck-mover among each duo.
Given their subpar start to the season, the Kraken are in tough to make the playoffs even with Dunn returning and playing at a high level. While there is a wide range among the outlets, each of The Athletic, MoneyPuck, PlayoffStatus, and Hockey Reference are projecting that Seattle is more likely than not to fall short of qualifying for the 2025 NHL Playoffs.
The odds are clearly stacked against the Kraken with around two-thirds of the season left to play, but if anyone can positively shift the momentum, it’s Dunn.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
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