There’s no way to sugarcoat what has become glaringly obvious after a month of play in the 2023-24 NHL season. The Seattle Kraken haven’t found the magic that made the 2022-23 campaign – their second season of existence – such an unexpectedly thrilling ride. Instead, a slow start that bears more of a resemblance to the franchise’s debut has sown seeds of doubt in the Pacific Northwest.
After going 3-5-2 (.400 points percentage/PTS%) in October, the Kraken have managed a slightly improved record of 3-3-2 and a .500 PTS% midway through November.
This month’s results give them a collective 6-8-4 record on the year, putting them two points out of a wildcard spot in the Western Conference.
So, where have things gone wrong? Let’s dive into several factors driving the Kraken’s underwhelming start to the year and how likely they are to revert several worrying trends before their playoff spot becomes jeopardized.
Kraken Struggling to Control Play at Five-on-Five
Let’s start by comparing the Kraken’s on-ice results over the past two seasons in a number of categories at five-on-five, with their NHL rank in parentheses.
| 2022-23 | Statistic | 2023-24 |
| 54% (5) | Shots | 50.2% (16) |
| 51.7% (12) | Expected Goals | 50.4% (15) |
| 51.2% (14) | Scoring Chances | 51.9% (12) |
| 49.2% (20) | High-Danger Chances | 46.5% (25) |
| 10.3% (1) | Shooting | 6.4% (30) |
Beyond observing a general dip in their on-ice share across almost every category, two trends stand out as key factors in the Kraken’s early-season struggles.
The Kraken are losing the high-danger (HDC) battle (shots coming from the slot or close to the net) by an even wider margin than they did in 2022-23. That season, they ranked eighth in HDC against per-60 as head coach Dave Hakstol commanded a strong defensive unit. However, they really struggled to create dangerous opportunities in attack, sitting 25th in HDC for per-60-minutes.
That pattern has held through the first part of the 2023-24 season. The Kraken rank even lower in chance generation (29th) and haven’t posted the sterling defensive numbers to make up for their inability to carve out good looks in the offensive zone, ranking middle of the pack in HDC against per-60.
Related: 4 Bold Predictions For The 2023-2024 Seattle Kraken Season
The second distinguishable trend is that the Kraken are not receiving the same finishing luck that they did last season, nearly going from first to worst in shooting percentage. Teams can ride hot streaks for an entire season as the Kraken did, but unless they have multiple players capable of consistently outperforming expectations, some regression is bound to occur.
The Kraken clearly need to acquire a true star player, particularly someone who undoubtedly ranks within the NHL’s top 30 skaters in any given year. Sophomore center Matty Beniers has the potential to get there, but he’s endured one of the toughest starts on the team (two goals in 18 games) as we approach the quarter-mark of the campaign.
Jared McCann is also not that player, despite scoring a whopping 40 goals in 79 games last season. He’s shown the ability to be an above-average finisher over large sample sizes (12.2% shooting for his career), but he’s not someone who can single-handedly dismantle opposing defensive schemes without additional support.
It didn’t help matters that the Kraken lost Daniel Sprong to the Detroit Red Wings in free agency. Not only did he finish third on the team in goals last season (21), but he ranked third in the entire league in five-on-five points per-60, and eighth in goals per-60. He was remarkably efficient while playing under 12 minutes per game in all situations. Who needs 20 minutes a night when you can score as frequently in 10?
Related: Seattle Kraken’s 2023-24 Season Hinges On November Schedule
The departure of Sprong, along with the absence of sharpshooter Andre Burakovsky – who has been limited to only six games this season due to injury – has stripped the Kraken of two of their most skilled shooters from last season’s run. Burakovsky’s puck-carrying ability in transition should also not go unnoticed.
The Kraken’s power play has not been an issue this season; instead, it has been acting as one of the lone bright spots to date. A 19.8% efficiency rate in 2022-23 placed them 21st in the league, but the 2023-24 iteration currently boasts a mark of 26.7%, which sits firmly within the top 10 league-wide.
Kraken Losing Ground in Western Conference Playoff Race
While my earlier statement was true in that the Kraken are only two points (16) out of the Western Conference’s second wildcard spot, it left out some important context. All things considered, the Kraken may already be scrambling to make up ground in the playoff race.
The Anaheim Ducks (18 points), Arizona Coyotes (18), and St. Louis Blues (17) all rank higher while also holding at least two games in hand on the Kraken. The Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild, and Edmonton Oilers can all climb ahead of Seattle if they win their games in hand.
The Oilers – the first team to fire their coach – have been the league’s biggest disappointment, going from pre-season Stanley Cup favorites to slumming it with likely draft lottery participants. If they find their game, and a three-game win streak suggests they might, the Kraken’s playoff qualification scenarios become even cloudier.
The Los Angeles Kings (21 points in 15 games) occupy the Pacific Division’s third automatic playoff spot but have clearly been a cut above the aforementioned group. Qualifying for the NHL postseason might have to be accomplished through the wildcard route, which looks to be inviting quite the crowd this season.
Only six points separate the teams ranked sixth (Winnipeg Jets) and 12th in the Western Conference (Minnesota Wild), showing just how tight the race is and will continue to be.
There’s been a growing trend of NHL insiders, fans, and executives around the league emphasizing the playoff picture at the time of American Thanksgiving (Nov. 23 this year). In short, the data suggests that teams in playoff position by that date usually don’t concede their spot at year’s end.
The Kraken currently find themselves on the wrong side of that ledger with just under a week to go until the supposed cut-off line. Can they buck the trend and leapfrog their competition, or just become another forgotten data point in the Thanksgiving pile?
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.
