After a grueling seven-month campaign, the Seattle Kraken have almost closed the book on the 2024-25 NHL season. In another disappointing effort, the team failed to qualify for the playoffs for the second consecutive season, and the third time in the franchise’s four years of existence.
They currently sport a record of 33-38-6 through 77 games and sit sixth-last in the league by both points (72) and points percentage (.468 PTS%).
Though a postseason berth is mathematically out of reach, there is still something of substance to play for: a top-five draft pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. In a world where obtaining players for fair value in free agency is a hit-or-miss affair and finding a willing trade partner is as difficult as ever, the annual entry draft remains the simplest way to bring a future star or two into the fold.
The value of a decent-to-great young player on a three-year entry-level contract surpasses even a superstar on a market value deal and can tie a good player to a less desirable market for years before they hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
All that is to say that, despite the perception around “tanking” in professional sports, the Kraken would be better served trying to climb into the top-five pick discussion before the draft lottery. The NHL introduced the lottery in 1995 as a way to combat teams intentionally losing games to juice their odds, though the current iteration still rewards the worst teams.
There are two draws which determine the first two picks in the draft with the last-place team unable to drop further than third-overall. The winning teams cannot move up more than 10 spots in the draft order which means if a team in the 12-to-16 range wins either of the two draws, the team in last place in the league standings retains the first-overall pick.
Tankathon has illustrated the spread of the lottery odds based on the final standings, with this year’s edition set to take place sometime in early May depending on the yet-to-be-determined playoff schedule.
Top Draft Lottery Odds Nearly Locked Up
With all teams having between four and six games remaining on their respective schedules, the final standings are nearly locked in. All three of the San Jose Sharks (50 points), Chicago Blackhawks (54), and Nashville Predators (62) are separated from the team with the fourth-worst record in the league (the Boston Bruins with 71 points) by nine points or more, meaning that those three are all but assured to finish the season with the three best odds to win the first-overall pick.
After that, the Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers (71), Kraken (72 points), Buffalo Sabres (74), Pittsburgh Penguins (74), and Anaheim Ducks (74) are separated by three points or less in the race for the fourth- and fifth-best lottery odds. Here are those teams with their current point totals, games remaining on the schedule, and the difficulty of each team’s remaining schedule.
| Team | Points | Games Left |
| Bruins | 71 | 4 |
| Flyers | 71 | 5 |
| Kraken | 72 | 5 |
| Sabres | 74 | 6 |
| Penguins | 74 | 4 |
| Ducks | 74 | 6 |
Finishing fourth-last in the standings would guarantee a top-six draft pick and it’s not outside of the realm of possibility to see them drop all the way to the margins of the bottom-10. That would be a disaster given how undesirable it is to occupy the mushy middle of the NHL hierarchy.
Working in the Kraken’s favor is the fact that their remaining schedule is fairly difficult, and could help push them down into the bottom-four for the purposes of the lottery. Seattle is slated to face off against the Los Angeles Kings (twice), Utah Hockey Club, Vegas Golden Knights, and St. Louis Blues before the season is up. The Golden Knights (fourth), Kings (sixth), and Blues (12th) are among the best teams in the league by PTS%, and even Utah is no pushover at 19th.
What may hurt the Kraken is that the Bruins and the Flyers (two of their main competitors for the fourth-best odds in the lottery) have been terrible since the trade deadline. The Bruins have only won three of their 14 games since, with the Flyers not much better at four of 14. They are the worst and fifth-worst in the league by PTS% since Mar. 7, and have leapfrogged a Seattle team that has won seven of its last 14 games. I am by no means an advocate for tanking, but it’s no surprise to see any team choose that route given the incentives under the current draft system.
Kraken In Good Spot Heading into the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery
Though their final position in the standings means that they likely won’t earn a top-three pick through the draft lottery, the Kraken are not in dire straits when it comes to their prospect pool.
The Athletic recently ranked Seattle’s crop of prospects as the 10th best in the league and that was with Shane Wright graduating into full NHL duty and not including the acquisition of 24-year-old Kappo Kakko. The likes of Anton Frondell, Roger McQueen, and Viktor Eklund should be available outside of the top five, and any of those three would be a boon for the Kraken’s farm system.
The Kraken have also been more competitive than most of their peers in the league’s basement and can use that success as a foundation for next season. The NHL has smoothed out the lottery odds multiple times in the past two decades which means it’s no longer a given that the worst team will be awarded the first-overall pick.
The Kraken are parlaying a late-season surge into worse odds but still winning the lottery. It would be a neat serving of karmic justice and is just what the fans deserve.
Data courtesy of the NHL.
