With their 5-2 loss against the Metropolitan Division-leading New York Rangers, the Seattle Kraken’s record dropped to 19-16-9 in 44 games (47 points), slightly past the midway point of the 2023-24 season. It’s at this juncture that we can pause and take stock of the Kraken’s third season of existence and what the second half of the year might have in store for the organization.
By most measures, 2023-24 has been a disappointment for the Kraken. After 44 games last season, the team owned a record of 26-14-4 (56 points) and occupied a playoff spot. This season, they sit just outside of the Western Conference playoff picture at the same point of the campaign.
Seattle are two points behind both the Edmonton Oilers and the Nashville Predators, though the Oilers have four games in hand on the Kraken while the Predators are equal with the Kraken with 44 games played. Dave Hakstol’s men also have teams chasing them who are tied on points (Calgary Flames) or have multiple games in hand (St. Louis Blues and the Arizona Coyotes), making the Western Conference a free-for-all affair.
The Kraken’s record and place in the standings are just the surface-level results. Let’s dive into the three major storylines that have defined the club’s 2023-24 season so far and investigate how likely each is to continue into the back half of the campaign.
Daccord Submitting All-Star-Caliber Campaign in Kraken Crease
The biggest story around the Kraken this season is the play and emergence of 27-year-old Joey Daccord, who resoundingly claimed the starting job after Philipp Grubauer was sidelined with an injury earlier this season.
Prior to this season, Daccord owned a career record of 3-9-2 in 19 games with a save percentage (SV%) of .884, a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.64, and a mark of minus-10.1 goals saved above expected (GSAx). Those numbers are well below NHL levels and offered little evidence that Daccord could ever become more than an occasional minor-league call-up in a pinch.
With that context in mind, Daccord’s meteoric rise has been incredible. For the season, Daccord ranks 16th in starts (25), 15th in wins (13), sixth in SV% (.923), and 10th in GSAx (plus-14.1), with all ranks among qualified goalies (minimum five games played).
The journeyman netminder has started 14 of the Kraken’s last 16 games since Dec. 9 (the game when Grubauer was injured), earning the win on ten occasions. Daccord is tied for first in wins, second in SV% (.944), and first in GSAx (plus-15.6) in that span, demonstrating just how dominant he’s been in the crease.
Despite his performance, Daccord was not initially named an All-Star Game player (Oliver Bjorkstrand earned that honor), nor was he voted in after the fact. Given how unexpected his play has been, it’s entirely possible that this is the apex of Daccord’s career and that he will never reach these heights again.
Barring being named as an injury replacement, Daccord will miss out on the All-Star festivities (Feb. 1-3), but that shouldn’t take away from his extraordinary run.
Kraken Season Defined by Lengthy Winning and Losing Streaks
The Kraken’s season has been anything but consistent, with the team experiencing both winning and losing streaks of note. After starting the season by winning only eight of their first 21 games, the team embarked upon a miserable eight-game losing streak where they were outscored 26-13. The string of losses dragged their record down to 8-14-7 and cast doubt on qualifying for the playoffs only a third into the campaign.
After mercifully splitting the next four games, the Kraken went on a nine-game winning streak of their own, outsourcing their opponents 32-13. The impressive run of form lifted their record to a respectable 19-14-9 and put them firmly back into the playoff conversation with half of the season remaining.
An active three-game losing streak has dampened the mood somewhat as the All-Star break approaches, but it’s just another example of the pattern plaguing the Kraken this season. They have only earned a single winning streak of at least three games (the eight-game run) but have lost at least three consecutive games on four occasions, including a four-game slump to start the season.
Every point counts amidst a tight playoff race, but failing to gather momentum has stalled the Kraken’s qualifying efforts, with multiple win streaks ending after two games. Greater consistency could go a long way toward cementing the team’s postseason status, but that’s been easier said than done so far this season.
Kraken Still Struggling to Score in All Situations
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Kraken are having trouble scoring goals. Yes, I know that the team ranked second in the league in 2022-23 with an unsustainable all-situations shooting percentage (SH%) of 11.6% and ranked fourth overall with 3.52 goals per game, but the offense has generally not been Seattle’s defining trait through their brief existence and isn’t this season.
The Kraken rank 21st with a much lower SH% of 9.6% this season, which is a major factor in their paltry 2.8 goals per game (27th), though they’ve struggled to generate opportunities at five-on-five. They rank in the bottom half of the league by every shot- and chance-generation metric, but their power play ranks 14th with a 22.1% conversion rate.
Jared McCann leads the team with 17 goals in 43 games (32-goal pace), but Bjorkstrand ranks second with 12 in 44, a much lower 82-game pace of 22 goals. Otherwise, only the injured Jaden Schwartz (26) and Eeli Tolvanen (21) are scoring at a 20-goal pace or higher, leaving the Kraken bereft of reliable offensive weapons up front. It doesn’t help that Matty Beniers (24 goals last season) has only potted six in 42 games this season. It’s quite the drop-off from one of the Kraken’s key forwards, who was just placed on injured reserve with an undisclosed injury.
It’s not as though the lack of offense has been a difference-maker in too many games, as the Kraken have only lost three one-goal games all year. Instead, it’s the blowouts that have been concerning, with Seattle tying for third in the NHL with losses of three or more goals. Sure, more goals would make that margin slightly better, but it’s tough to argue with the numbers.
Kraken Must Decide on Organizational Path Before Trade Deadline
Despite the Kraken’s recent win streak, my view of the franchise’s long-term outlook has not changed, and pivoting towards a rebuild would be a prudent move for the long-term health of the club.
Though the organization boasts a surprisingly strong farm system for a franchise with only three drafts under its belt, they don’t possess a truly elite prospect or two who could significantly raise its competitive ceiling in the future.
20-year-old center Shane Wright has shown some promise in his first full professional season with 14 goals and 24 points in 32 AHL games, but he’s seen his stock drop since once being touted as the potential first-overall pick of his draft class (he went fourth-overall in 2022).
At the time of this writing, the Kraken have 11 players aged 30 or older currently on the roster (including long-term injured reserve) and 16 players aged 28 or older. At an average age of 29.1 years old, the Kraken have the 12th-oldest roster in the league, though a few young contributors (Beniers, 21; Tye Kartye, 22) shave a few months off of that average.
Research on NHL aging curves suggests that skaters typically see their on-ice impact plateau from age 22 to 25, quite a drastic difference from the long-held belief that players typically peak between ages 27 and 29.
All that’s to say is that the Kraken have a roster built to win now and have committed a great deal of time to aging players (seven players aged 30 or older are signed through next season). The 2024 Trade Deadline represents a great opportunity to sell off players and accumulate future assets with an eye toward seriously competing in two to four years.
Another playoff appearance would energize the fanbase and bolster ownership’s coffers, but prioritizing the future would be the wise move – will management agree?
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
