Week nine of college football has come and gone in the Pac-12, headlined by Oregon heading out on the road and sending a message to the rest of the conference with a resounding 35-6 victory over Utah on ESPN College GameDay – and Oregon State practically pulling themselves out of the year’s conference championship race as the Arizona Wildcats comeback late in the fourth quarter to pull off the upset in the Desert.
With just four weeks of regular play to go before teams go bowling in December, the entire conference’s postseason picture has utterly shuffled around in recent weeks.
The Ducks have rebounded well following the fourth-quarter chaos at Husky Stadium that did not go their way earlier in October, with high-scoring wins to both Washington State and Utah following the defeat to Washington. Bo Nix continues to pad his Heisman case with historic passing performances while avoiding turnovers, the defense has stood up strong against a lot of the best offensive weapons in the country, and the offensive line now dubbed “The Law Firm” by its head coach is on another level once again this season.
Oregon checked in at No. 6 on the latest AP poll, up two spots from last week, but more importantly, No. 6 on this year’s first edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings too. They’ll go back home to face California at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, a game where they’ll no doubt be the side that’s the heavy favorites in the build-up before kickoff.
Right now, Oregon, sitting at third in the conference, is currently fighting to make up ground on second-place USC for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game, as well as first-place Washington for a spot in the College Football Playoff. If Oregon cannot jump up either team by the conclusion of Week 13 and ends up watching the conference title game from home, then they may be forced into a less prestigious game, such as the Alamo or Las Vegas Bowl vs. a Big Ten or Big 12 side to go all in for.
Suppose the Ducks end up competing in the Pac-12 Championship game. In that case, they’ll get the chance to partake in one of the New Year’s Six bowl games as an at-large team, likely the Fiesta, Peach, or Cotton Bowl, unless the Ducks climb ahead of Washington and into the top 4 in the final CFP rankings of the year to get the honor of playing in the Rose or Sugar Bowl for a national semifinal game.
As for Oregon State, the loss against Arizona derailed what was set to be a uniquely special season under head coach Jonathan Smith and an explosive offense both on the ground through its running backs as well as in the air spearheaded by quarterbacks DJ Uiagalelei and freshman Aidan Chiles after a breakout 2022. They’ll need to win out the rest of the regular season for a fighting chance at playing in the Pac-12 title game – a feat improbable to accomplish with both Oregon and Washington still left to play.
The Beavers have tumbled down to No. 16 in the AP poll and placed 16th in the first CFP rankings. Any of the New Year’s Six bowl games seem unlikely for Oregon State to make an at-large bid for unless, again, they miraculously win out and compete in the conference title game, so the Holiday, Alamo, or Las Vegas Bowl seems about right if the Beavers keep up the current pace they’ve built this season.
Playing in the Sun or Los Angeles Bowl is a distinct possibility if Oregon State continues to struggle against some really tough teams in its final four conference games of the regular season. Still, that crisis can easily be averted unless the Beavers lose to one or both of Colorado/Stanford and both of Oregon/Washington.
Here are all the bowl matchups the Pac-12 is expected to have a team compete in, as at least eight members of the conference are expected to earn bowl eligibility:
Jan. 1 Rose or Sugar Bowl – CFP Semifinal (Pasadena, CA or New Orleans, LA)
Dec. 29, Dec. 30, or Jan. 1 Cotton, Peach, or Fiesta Bowl (Arlington, TX, Atlanta, GA, or Glendale, AZ)
Dec. 29 Sun Bowl – Pac-12 vs. ACC (El Paso, TX)
Dec. 28 Alamo Bowl – Pac-12 vs Big 12 (San Antonio, TX)
Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl – Pac-12 vs ACC (San Diego, CA*)
Dec. 23 Las Vegas Bowl Pac-12 vs Big Ten (Las Vegas, NV)
Dec. 16 Independence Bowl Pac-12 vs Big 12 (Shreveport, LA)
Dec. 16 LA Bowl Pac-12 vs Mountain West (Inglewood, CA)
* Bowl games should NOT be played at baseball stadiums
The Pac-12 Football Championship game is scheduled for Friday, Dec. 1, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Bowl matchups will be revealed to the public two days later (Dec. 3), with this year’s bowl season formally kicking off on Dec. 16, featuring a seven-game slate on a Saturday. Happy bowling!
