Rip City, if you’re wondering what the bottom looks like, this is it!
There is no sugarcoating what is transpiring in Portland. It’s time for some hard truths for Trail Blazers fans and me.
(And a 3-game winning streak against teams at or below 0.500 doesn’t change this team’s fortunes. They are what they are – bottom feeders, with only seven teams having fewer wins.)
First up, the fans…
Leading this charge for truth is none other than Jason Quick, who seems to have been set free. His work product has gone from good to great, no doubt an extension of the freedom he now enjoys working for The Athletic.
We’ll raise this curtain of hard truths with a Tweet:
A pic (which you need to see for yourself) accompanied by this:
“In all my years, not sure I’ve seen a more sparse Blazers crowd than tonight vs. Brooklyn.”
Even more damning, though, is a recent article J-Quick wrote about “the hardest mental battle [Anfernee Simons has] had in [his]career.”
“The root of his funk? Losing.”
My biggest fear going into this season, as previously expressed as A Deep Thought, has now been fully realized. With winning obviously being a secondary concern of the franchise (and by winning, all I really mean is competing consistently), losing is permeating everything. Losing has become the Blazers’ symbiote. It’s taken root and taken over.
Now, back to Anfernee Simons, our sounding board:
“When you are in the middle of a whole organizational turnaround, and you came into a culture that was set, and everything was this-this-this and then, that changes, you are like … ‘S—, what the hell is going on?’ Simons said. ‘It’s definitely a lot different now.”
And more from Jason Quick:
“Simons’ malaise is a dangerous side effect of an organization’s pursuit of higher draft picks at the expense of winning. Since [Joe] Cronin has taken over the Blazers, Portland has an 81-175 record (.316 winning percentage).… [He (my word, not J-Quick’s)] has created a culture where not only is losing tolerated, but in Portland’s case, the roster has no clear direction or playing style.”
I hoped that Cronin would snuff this out:
This is the year Joe Cronin gets to decide what type of franchise the Portland Trail Blazers will be. He seems to be leaning heavily to the side of development, which is code for losing, in hopes of winning the now-even-longer-odds draft lottery.
Might he surprise us, though?
A mark of a good leader is knowing when to lead and when to get out of your own way. And I really think Simons ha[d]the right idea: It’s time to compete, it’s time to win!
By choosing ping pong balls instead, he’s really let us down.
My turn for some hard truths…
And for this, we’re going Back In Time. Back to my Season-In-Reviews:
Why Portland Is Very Lucky To Have Chauncey Billups
Tim Grass, if you’re reading this, you were right! I lost you at lucky and for good reason.
All Portland has done since is lose.
Yes, they have won 16 games, but the ship has never been more rudderless. And there is plenty of blame to go around.
Joe and his Cronies are chiefly responsible for “the roster ha[ving]no clear direction,” but the “playing style” falls largely on Chauncey Billups. He has his core beliefs, which include playing ‘the right way’, but has spent the year trying to fit this round-peg-roster into a square hole. He has stuck to his guns, clung ever so tightly to these core beliefs.
What he hasn’t proven very deft at all is adapting to personnel – putting players in the best positions to succeed. While there’s a preponderance of evidence of this, I’ll give you two examples:
Exhibit A, on the veteran player side
While losing is definitely getting the better of Anfernee Simons, his coach hasn’t done him any favors. Anfernee was brought up in the Damian Lillard School of halfcourt offense and had even become Lillard-lite in his first season without Dame (see: Simons – Ray of Sunshine).
So, what does Chauncey do? He speeds him up. It’s actually “his most pressing goal for Simons,” per Aaron Fentress of the Oregonian/Oregonlive.com:
“He has to make a change and start trying to play a little faster because [Anfernee and Dame] are different players.”
But be that as it may, the results have been disastrous, both for the player and the team.
As the Trail Blazers’ best player, the team needs Anfernee Simons playing at a high level to have any chance of competing, let alone actually winning. Instead, they’re getting career lows nearly across the board since he became a full-time starter in 2022-23: 18.2 pts on 42.1% shooting, including 3.0 3pm on a 3P% of 36.6%, 4.9 ast, 2.7 reb, & 0.9 stl. Woof!
Exhibit B, on the player development side
Not coincidently, the springboard game for Scoot Henderson’s best month to date (Jan.) came in Billups absence. Henderson even hit the game-winner against the Jazz the day after Christmas. It may have been a day late, but “[Christmas] came just the same!”
A quote from Scoot after the game was very telling, courtesy of Aaron Fentress:
“Henderson said he merely took advantage of opportunities against the Jazz.
“I don’t think I kind of felt any different,’ he said. ‘I was just put into situations to make plays.”
Without intending it to be, this quote is at the opposite end of the spectrum of a ringing endorsement; it’s an indictment of Chaucey Billups.
Worse still, the most damning evidence of Billups as the Blazers head coach is brought to us by Law Murray of The Athletic:
“The Trail Blazers have lost three games this season by at least 30 points. That’s the most in the league, and they have a league-worst 27 losses by at least 30 points in Chauncey Billups’ four seasons as coach. When they lose, they tend to get obliterated.”
More of the same, but with better recency from Zach Harper’s The Bounce, The Athletic’s daily NBA newsletter:
“The Blazers won on Sunday [1/19] to break a five-game losing streak, but this team looked listless during that stretch. It lost to a Dallas team without its two best players, got blown out by a Heat team mired in controversy, was destroyed by a Nets team that would lose by 59 points the next game and then got hammered by the Clippers and Rockets. It’s not that they’re losing these games. It’s how they’re losing them.”
With improved depth and health this season, there is just no excuse for Portland continuing to get “blown out” (by at least 20 points, but less than 30) or, worse yet, “obliterated” (by 30 or more). Nothing says the coach doesn’t have his team ready to play quite like this.
If the Trail Blazers ever were lucky to have Chauncey, it’s become glaringly obvious that their luck has run out.
Now, Let’s Talk About Scoot Henderson (Or Just Circle On Back)
Here’s his best month by the numbers: 15.4 pts on 50% shooting, including 2.1 3pm on a 3P% of 43.4%, 5.9 ast vs. 3.2 TO, 3.6 reb, & 1 stl. He’s been even better in the seven games he’s started this season: 16.7 pts on 48.8 shooting, including 2.4 3pm on a 3P% of 41.5%, 7.3 ast vs. 3.7 TO, 3.3 reb, & 1.1 stl.
There is definitely a player in there somewhere after all, so hopefully, Henderson continues to be “put into situations to make plays” so that he keeps on Scooting to his Lou!
I know everyone in Blazer Nation is rooting for his continued development, myself included. But, and there is a but, I think Henderson is on a different career trajectory than was projected, and our expectations of him should be adjusted accordingly.
As a prospect, he was lauded for his explosiveness, yet he hasn’t exactly exploded onto the NBA scene. Examples of his heralded explosiveness are few and far between, nonexistent even. Think about the likes of Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and Ja Morant and the impressions they made in their first two years in the league. There were highlights aplenty of their explosiveness. No one questioned whether they were or weren’t, as we are with Scoot Henderson.
This is not cause for concern though Rip City, cause Scoot is blazing fast (as advertised), is really coming on as a shooter, and showing some real playmaking and defensive chops.
If he continues to develop as a playmaker and locks in as a defender, I think we’re looking at a Mike Conley-esque floor and a Jrue Holiday-ish ceiling. Both have been really good and undervalued NBA players, but they aren’t MVP calibers like Rose, Westbrook, and Morant.
I’ve reset my expectations for Henderson in this way and encourage you to do the same. I think this will make for a healthier experience for all of Portland Trail Blazers Fandom, us having realistic expectations.
However, if you still want to dream big, then dream on Shaedon Sharpe. He’s our Luke Skywalker, our “only hope” of having an MVP-caliber player.
And finally, the elephant(s) in the room
(No, not the aforementioned 7′ 0″, 247 lb. problem, at least not yet.)
For this, too, we’ll go Back to the Future, to Portland’s first 11 games, which included their first 3-game losing streak and the 3-game winning streak that immediately followed. In those first 11 games, the Trail Blazers were “blown out” and “obliterated” twice. This means they lost four games by at least 20 points, 3 of which by 25 or more. It’s on these three games we’ll be zeroing in.
The first, in their season opener, a 104-140 loss to the Warriors, was inexcusable.
The last, an 89-134 loss to the Grizzlies, without their two best players (Ja Morant & Desmond Bane), was unforgivable!
And in between, a 102-127 loss to the Timberwolves, which was the game just prior to the Memphis drubbing.
This was such a sad turn of events. What a difference 3 games can make though! Both for bad, and good as it turns out.
First, the bad…
Prior to the T-Wolves loss, Aaron Fentress of The Oregonian/OregonLive and Craig Birnbach, via their Blazer Focused podcast, were actually encouraged, despite the team’s 3-5 record at the time – Trail Blazers show encouraging signs during 3-5 start.
I can’t fathom either of them was encouraged by anything after losing by 45 to the Grizzlies. The wheels had come off; the train had derailed. Whatever the analogy (feel free to pick your own poison), one thing was crystal clear: change was needed.
Chauncey Billups obviously sensed this and opted to make a change to his starting lineup prior to the Memphis debacle. Seeking some kind of spark, Shaedon Sharpe was promoted, and Deni Avdija was demoted. (Yes, one of their two prizes from the offseason, The [Not So] Bad one, was demoted.)
A spark it was not, more like Burning Down the House!
But should all the blame be laid at Billups’s feet?
Some of it, inarguably, but roster changes also needed to be made even back then, but especially now, with the very first being DeAndre Ayton exiting stage left (the 7′ 0″, 247 lb. problem).
So, to Joe Cronin (JC), again, I say, what in h-e-double-hockey-sticks are you waiting for!?
With his inaction, Cronin becomes an elephant in the room, with DeAndre keeping him company.
Try as he might; he can’t stay silent and do nothing. Sure, he can pass the buck and fire Billups (as so many executives before him have), or he can acknowledge his role in it all and make a sorely needed trade.
I know where I’d start, and maybe a Meyers Leonard-level return (a rack of basketballs – just matching expiring salary) would be sufficient enough if that’s all he can get for Ayton. A textbook example of addition-by-subtraction!
Now for the good (in asterisk form, 1 for each win)…
*In an infinitely small sample size (just three games), all sans DominAyton (who had been out with a finger injury), these same downtrodden Blazers exacted revenge on Minnesota, not once (122-108 on 11/12), but twice (106-98 on 11/13),Two Times Devoured! And then beat the Hawks 114-110 on 11/17, in a bit of a nail biter*
**And in an encouraging development, Ayton’s replacements, Robert Williams III (RWIII) and Donovan Clingan, took turns doing their own Domin-Ating in the first two wins. RWIII had 19 pts, 9 reb, 3 blk, 3 stl, & 3 ast on 11/12 and Clingan had 17 pts, 12 reb, 8 blk (including 5 in the 4th quarter alone), & 1 ast on 11/13.**
***DeAndre Ayton’s absence, in conjunction with Shaedon’s promotion, was the spark Billups was seeking. Sharpe, for his part, was sensational! Set a career-high with 33 points on 11/13 & then followed that up with 32 points against Atlanta.***
Sadly, the good times did not keep rolling from there, and they will not from this current three-game winning streak.
Actually, don’t listen to me, JC. Listen to your team, and listen to Anfernee Simons, your best player. Don’t let any hoped-for development be further impeded by the roots of toxicity growing deeper still. Let’s not squander all the progress you’ve made.
[Anfernee Simons & Scoot Henderson’s stats are through the game vs. Heat on Jan. 21st]
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